ABC WaPo poll: Romney, Obama in Dead Heat Ahead of RNC

[ProSense]

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1139a1IntotheConventions.pdf

Given the MOE, the "dead heat" appears to have existed for the last three polls.

What is different is the top set of numbers, you know, the one showing Obama up three points and Romney down four points.

[Ichingcarpenter]

1. I can't believe these polls

or understand the stupidity of voting Americans if they are true.

[NNN0LHI]

7. I survived two terms of Reagan so I can believe anything

[bemildred]

2. Right.

The tension is deadly.

[a kennedy]

3. Intrade has droped POTUS getting re-elected to 55.8%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ and I know it's Intrade....but d*mn.

[WI_DEM]

9. intrade, I don't get that, it seems like a waste of time to even follow that.

[a kennedy]

27. Well, actually, I guess it's a waste of time on ANY polls then, eh??

They're all just numbers and the only real number that counts is when they're all counted, and hopefully counted correctly. GOBAMA, GOBAMA, GOBAMA

[Dawgs]

4. Just as meaningless as intrade. Obama's winning big in electoral college.

Romney is toast, unless he can come up with a big game changer before election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The State Polls Follow The National Polls

It's possible but unlikely one would win the pop vote and lose the EC vote.


If you look at the numbers this race looks like 2004 with the incumbent and challenger exchanging small leads. I hope in this instance the incumbent wins.

[uponit7771]

11. Not the swing state polls

[ananda]

6. I don't this this is the case.

These polls are manufactured in an effort to make people think the race is close.

It isn't.

However, if manufactured polls keep targeted people at home on election day,
well, that is another matter.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. But Polls By Respected Democratic Pollsters Are Showing Similar Results

And if the polls are showing a close race wouldn't that encourage folks to vote by convincing them every vote is needed.

[uponit7771]

15. National polls are meaningless, if you have swing state polls with matched numbers then

...could you link them?

I've not seen multiple swing state poll with rMoney within MOE

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. There Is Some Tightening There Too

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

The tightening makes sense because after all state polls are part of the larger universe from which national polls are compiled.

I think the president's popular vote percentage will approximate his approval rating percentage which stands anywhere between 46% and 50% depending on the poll.

I also think he might outpoll his approval rating by a percent or two for a host of reasons because ironically some folks don't like change.

[WI_DEM]

8. some polls have Obama ahead others show a tie

it's close, but so far most don't have Romney ahead. I'm sure some polls will have Romney up after his convention and then Obama will have his. The fact is that the polls aren't much different right now than they were at this point in 2008.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The Structure Of The 08 Race Was Fundamentally Different

And at some point it would assert itself.

[WI_DEM]

17. too many people will see this and begin to panic

and you know what? Romney is going to have the lead after this week in several polls because of all the publicity he gets from the convention. You know what will happen then? The Dems will have their convention next week and then Obama will get a boost. It's going to be a close election and the debates will be key.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. This Will Probably Be A One Or Two Point Race With The President Hopefully Winning.

We are getting killed by this economy.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. two points

1) The polls will be all over the place until after the debates. Getting caught up in them right now is a mistake.

2) Only the electoral college really matters. We have a huge advantage there and it doesn't matter if we lose Mississippi by 80%, the electoral votes don't change.

[WI_DEM]

18. I agree--the debates will be key

and the polls right now due to the conventions are pretty meaningless. Both candidates will get a boost from their conventions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Kerry Used Bush* As A Punching Bag In Two Of The Three Debates And Still Lost

But one could interpet that as to just how difficult it is to beat an incumbent president.

[Motown_Johnny]

24. Kerry was also the stiff from MA. This time that will be Rmoney.

Plus Rmoney has flipped on so many issues that he can be hit on it every time he answers a question. Besides that he is at odds with his own party's platform.

I expect to see more flips and flops than at the Olympics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I Agree

Bob Shrum pretty much nailed it.

Rmoney approaches politics as one would approach marketing. You try to figure out what the customer wants and give it to him or her. They all do that, our side too...But he takes it to an absurd level.

[WI_DEM]

14. ABC Poll has been most pro-Romney of all the major networks...

out of 14 polls they have done on the presidential race, Romney has held the lead in seven of them. No other poll has shown that...

It’s the seventh time in 14 ABC/Post surveys this cycle that Romney’s held a scant (even 1-point) numerical edge.

[uponit7771]

16. wow...does ABC post it's sampling and weighting?

[Jennicut]

19. And the Rasmussen tracking poll has Obama up by 3 points.

So many polls have different systems, different weights for each party, RV vs. LV.
Who the hell knows except that this race is close. Obama has the struggling economy (which to me is not his fault) and Romney has the struggling personality. It will come down to who people feel most comfortable with as President.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Well, That Will Upset Those Toads, Karl Rove And Dick Morris

They are big Rasmussen fans but I'm sure in private they acknowledge his polls are garbage.

Even if you assume the cell phone only voter is indistinguishable from the landline or landline and cell phone voter it is folly to exclude them.

[ananda]

25. I just don't believe it's that close.

Period.

I think Obama will win in a landslide.

I just hope he has coattails. I really want a revival
of the 50 state strategy NOW!!