Aug. 26: Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The FiveThirtyEight forecast for Sunday gives Barack Obama a 69.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6. That’s essentially unchanged from Saturday — although there have been some modest shifts back and forth in the numbers over the course of the past two weeks since Mitt Romney named Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin as his vice-presidential nominee.

Mr. Romney was given a 28.0 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Aug. 10, the day before he officially announced Mr. Ryan as his pick. The forecast then moved somewhat toward Mr. Romney after a series of improved polling in swing states for the newly minted Republican ticket, achieving a peak of 33.3 percent on Wednesday. It has since receded slightly to 30.6 percent, however, as Mr. Obama held leads in a number of swing state polls late last week.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/26/aug-26-little-momentum-in-polls-in-advance-of-conventions/

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. Check the map at the link below....very encouraging

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

Has PO with 258 EVs - and showing Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin as undecided (along with NC, VA and FL). Just Michigan would put him over the top, which I think is highly likely....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. He Has The President At About A Seventy Percent Likelihood To Win The EC

I like that. But all Nate is doing is compiling every available poll.

If the polls move his percentages will move as well.