Do Campaigns Predict How a President Will Govern?

[xchrom]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/how-much-do-campaigns-tell-us-about-how-a-president-will-govern/250893/

n a typically insightful dispatch, George Packer remarks on the recent Republican habit of critiquing President Obama using the most inflammatory language imaginable -- Rick Santorum criticized him for engaging in un-American activities, for example -- and segues into analysis of Mitt Romney's bid for the nomination.

Here's how he sums it up:

'Romney is like an actor who normally does investment commercials and is improbably cast in an ad for the Ultimate Fighting Championship. He's doing a credible job playing an intellectual thug, because that's the only way to win the nomination.

It would be a mistake, though, to believe that, long after Iowa, once the horse race is over, and if he's elected, Romney could suddenly flip a switch, clear the air of the toxicity left behind by the Republican field, and return to being a cautious centrist whose most reassuring quality is his lack of principles. His party wouldn't let him; and, after all, how a candidate runs shapes how a President governs. In politics, once a sellout, always a sellout; once a thug, always a thug.'

Is that so?

[louis-t]

1. No, they do not.

Nothing irks me more than hearing some idiot repuke saying "MY candidate will...". You have no idea what YOUR candidate will do until he/she does it.

[Angry Dragon]

2. Answer to the Title: Nope

[cthulu2016]

3. I think the answer depends on congress

Romney will always do whatever seems best for Romney.

If he were president with a (truly) democratic congress he would do a lot of grand compromise stuff.

With a republican congress he would sign whatever horrible stuff they put on his desk.

George H W Bush ran an almost Bircher campaign against Dukakis but was a somewhat centrist president (by modern standards)

(One problem with "In politics, once a sellout, always a sellout; once a thug, always a thug." as it applies to Romney is that is suggests more consistency than Romney has.)

Once a sellout, always a sell-out is very true, but a true oportunist will switch who he's selling out to if the price is right.

So I don't know how Romney would govern in practice. I don't know what would be best for Romney without knowing the total environment.

[bowens43]

4. obviously not

I see not even the slightest resemblance between candidate Obama and President Obama.

[99Forever]

5. Apparently...

Not even close.

Your mileage may vary.

[pmorlan1]

6. No

No they don't. Just look at what Obama campaigned on vs. how he has governed.

[MineralMan]

7. I think they predict how a President will try

to govern. The presidency has a large leveling effect on those elected to the office. Sometimes that's good. Sometimes it's bad. We have a fairly weak presidency in our system. Lots of constraints. Sometimes that's good. Sometimes it's bad.

[cthulu2016]

9. Did W try to be a compassionate conservative?

[JackRiddler]

12. How many levels of meta are we allowed to acknowledge?

I knew that was a joke, so does it count as a pledge or as something that everyone knows is a snow-job? Only thanks to the rules of etiquette, you must pretend otherwise to remain within the pale of acceptable discourse. You can't just say, bullshit! Like during the same campaign when he said he wouldn't "nation-build," he had me cracking up. Of course his already well-known Iran-Contra crew was about starting as many big wars as they only could.

It's like when Republicans use coded racism, and everyone gets the message, both supporters and detractors, but liberals can't call them on it because by whatever ridiculous media rules they've maintained plausible deniability.

Or like when his father came out and said, "I want to be the education president!" I mean, seriously, does transparent crap like that have to be dignified until he "proves" otherwise?

Or the Happy Skies initiative, or whatever the Bush policy to allow more pollution was called. Or, of course, the U.S.A. P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act. Or announcing Operation Iraqi Liberation for an hour, and then pretending they hadn't noticed what it spelled and switching to Operation Iraqi Freedom.

[jonthebru]

8. No.

[ClassWarrior]

10. No. Witness the most recent winner.

NGU.

[TheKentuckian]

11. Nope