Managing convention bounce expectations

[cthulu2016]

I think it was such a good convention that we will get about as much bounce as we can, but there is a limit on recent convention bounces.

I think there hasn't been a big convention bounce this century. There are fewer and fewer truly undecided voters as things get more polarized, and the networks only show one hour a night.

Since the current dynamic is close to tied, I think that any move that shakes up that dynamic and makes Obama the clear leader by 2%-4% going into the debates is quite good. Anything over that would be exceptionally awesome.

Also, the convention probably increased Obama's job approval, which can be a prelude to switching voting preference. As election day rolls around an incumbent with a 50%+ approval rating is tough to beat.

[speedoo]

1. I am much more optimistic.

I expect a very good bounce form this convention. Maybe 10-12 % points, and that would be huge because I can't see the rethugs getting any kind of positives from the debates, and that is all that's left.

If Obama could get 330 ev's against a war hero, McCain, he will wipe the floor with a terrible candidate like Romney.

[Sherman A1]

2. It will be minimal

The media needs to keep it a horse race for as long as possible in order to continue to sell ads. Go back to the GOP Primary and think about the rise of one candidate, the fall of that candidate, the rise of the next, the fall of the next pattern. It was always a media driven cycle in order to build, destroy, build, destroy and maintain a horse race, all the while Romney was going to be their placeholder and he will lose the election. He never was a serious candidate.

[NYC Liberal]

3. I'm just waiting for the Rasmussen poll that shows Obama dropped 6 points after the convention.