Now here is some damn great news......consumer spending UP 8.5%. 👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻

[a kennedy]

US consumers were in the mood to spend this holiday season, with retail sales soaring 8.5 percent over last year, a study released Sunday showed.

Online sales were up 11 percent and in-store sales up 8.1 percent between November 1 and Christmas Eve, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse study.

The increase, which was the strongest in 17 years, does not reflect automobile sales.

"Consumers splurged throughout the season," said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO of Saks Incorporated.

The boom saw "apparel and department stores experiencing strong growth as shoppers sought to put their best dressed foot forward," he said.

Americans flocked to clothing, which experienced a 47.3 percent increase in sales year-to-year as well as jewelry, with a 32 percent increase.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-retail-sales-8-5-013714626.html

[elleng]

1. Hope SOMEones make use of it.

[Mr.Bill]

2. I wonder how much of that percentage was

due to higher prices?

[House of Roberts]

4. Based on what was reported around Black Friday,

discounts weren't nearly as deep as in previous years.

Gross receipts being up 8.5% doesn't mean consumers got 8.5% more stuff.

[Midnight Writer]

6. I wonder how much of that percentage due to higher wages? Or child tax credit?

[progree]

7. According to latest CPI data, Nov '21 over Nov '20 was 6.8% increase

Last edited Mon Dec 27, 2021, 07:58 PM - Edit history (2)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Won't have December's results until sometime in January.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

As for comparison to pre-pandemic, here are the CPI index figures from the above link:

Nov. 2019 257.387
Nov. 2021 278.880
+8.35% (4.09% annualized rate)

According to the article:

'Holiday sales were up 10.7% compared with the pre-pandemic 2019 holiday period.'

So inflation adjusted sales are up about 2.35% over 2 years ago.

Or more correctly, (1.107/1.0835 - 1)*100% = 2.2%

I don't see anything wrong with that.

As for comments about packages shrinking -- the people doing the CPI surveys aren't a bunch of idiots. They not only look at the number of ounces and pounds on the package, they actually weigh the contents. So they aren't fooled by subtle or unsubtle trimming of package size.

[dflprincess]

3. I wonder if they "flocked to clothing"

because more people are going back to the office.

I had barely bought any clothes since March of 2020 until I had to get ready for a trip to San Diego in November - and then I "flocked" to clothing stores. (Otherwise, my team has elected to continue to work from home - maybe coming in for a meeting every week or two so no need to shop much).

[Orrex]

5. Can't wait to read the NYT spin this as proof of Biden's failure.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. Preparing for inflation

It's what you do when cash is losing value.

[Amishman]

11. Which increases the velocity of money, which further increases inflation

Our current inflation problem is multifaceted

Supply of goods is constrained, due to manufacturing shortages and logistics issues.

Cost of goods is up, due to logistical inefficiencies, rising energy costs, and rising labor costs.

Yet at the same time, due to rising wages and an ultra competitive labor market, many consumer are able to afford the increased costs - and would even buy more of some commodities (cars for example) if they were available. This gives companies a free hand to raise prices steadily to maintain profit margins.

Compounding this is that the general expectation has become that inflation will persist through at least the immediate future. This means that people are starting to adjust behavior and not want to hold or accumulate cash (or cash equivalents). With a growing bias against saving - at both the commercial and consumer level - pushing this inflationary cycle faster.

Take that 8.5% spending increase, adjust it for the year over year inflation rate of 6.8%, and you get 1.7% real spending growth - a reasonable and 'healthy' figure. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as long as wages can keep up, moderate inflation will actually help by depreciating household debt and also the national debt.

[uponit7771]

9. last year was a depression economy

[diane in sf]

10. I read clothing and jewelry purchases as more social display. People are getting out more.

Back to physical meet-ups for work, school, social stuff.