Is GFS Tracking an Outlier?

[cthulu2016]

Not a polling thread. GFS (global forecast system, iirc) is the most popular of a number of competing hurricane forecasting models. And the most accurate, on average.

But the model that best predicts typical storms might not necessarily be the best for atypical storms. It looks like GFS is on the fringe of the computer models, predicting the most southerly entry path and the most dramatic exit from the US.



The NOAA forecast out seems to be in line with the ensemble average, and notably different from GFS.

[2theleft]

1. There is a guy in Richmond

Who does weather for farmers, traders, etc. Wxrisk.com, or WxRisk on Facebook. He HATES the GFS for any storms. He is the most accurate long range forecaster I have ever seen/read. Was dead on with his prediction of Irene a week out and beat all the major TV mets on landfall...snow storms, pretty accurate, etc.

His stuff is awesome and on Facebook, he will give explanations in non-weather terms so the average person can understand. He prefers the Euro typically. Check him out if you are a weather nut and are on the East Coast. I don't know him, so this is not an advertisement, just who I go to when I need to know if I need to be prepared for major weather.

[riverwalker]

2. do you have a link? n/t

[2theleft]

6. Here you go...

Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/WxRisk

website:

http://www.wxrisk.com/

[reformist2]

3. It's odd that the bright white line doesn't appear to be the average of the ensemble members.

What is the white line, anyway?

[cthulu2016]

4. The white line is the GFS projection the OP is about.

[reformist2]

5. But what are the purple lines? Ensemble members of the GFS model, right?