Hopium Chronicles: 16 polls have Biden ahead

[Fiendish Thingy]

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hopium-in-the-nytimes-16-polls-show

16 Polls Have Biden Up/Other 2024 Election Notes - It’s been a very good week of polling for Joe Biden and the Dems. With Data for Progress coming in this morning at 47-46 for Biden, and Marquette University 52-48, there are now 16 polls taken since late February showing Biden ahead: (via 538):

52-48 Marquette (this week)
47-46 Data For Progress (this week)
50-48 NPR/Marist (this week)
42-40 Big Village (this week)
44-42 Morning Consult (this week)
48-45 Quinnipiac
44-43 Noble Predictive
44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)
47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)
46-45 Public Policy Research
50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
45-44 Civiqs
47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
51-49 Emerson
43-42 TIPP

-snip-

In 2022 there were polls showing Republicans with an advantage (many paid for or conducted by GOP aligned organizations), and lots of other polls showing the election close and competitive. Many commentators choose to dismiss the polls more favorable to Dems, and focused on those more favorable to Rs. (Note: that is the likely reason Nate Silver got fired from 538) It is how so many fell for the red wave that that never came.

The responsible thing for commentators and analysts to do now, in 2024, is to point out that not all the data is pointing in the same direction; that there are polls favorable to the Rs (like the new WSJ polls) and there are all these other polls favorable to Biden and the Dems. Another responsible thing to do is to point out that in a week of very good polling for Biden and the Dems the one major poll showing good news for Rs - the low-sample size/high margin of error WSJ polls - was paid for by Rupert Murdoch and conducted by Trump’s own pollster; and thus centering one’s understanding about the 2024 election around data they provide is, um, not a reasonable thing to do. This is particularly true given Murdoch’s Fox News was found guilty in court of maliciously lying about the 2020 election.

My view is the election is becoming bluer, we are gaining ground. Trump is no longer ahead in the election or favored - saying so is outside the data in front of us. It has long been my view, and the view of the Biden campaign, that as we got deeper into the general election and our coalition started paying more attention, Biden would jump out to a modest lead. That appears to be what is happening now.

I also do not subscribe to the school of thought that the battleground leans more Republican than the popular vote. It may happen. But it didn’t happen in 2022, and the 2024 battleground knows and has repeatedly rejected MAGA. Post Dobbs MAGA had a disastrous showing in the battleground in 2022, and we just don’t know what is going to happen this year. I think Dobbs changed everything, and so comparisons to 2016 or 2020 are in my view very very risky.

(Italics mine)

Now, I haven’t examined the methodology behind each of these polls, and some may have flaws worth noting. In any case, I never put much stock in any single poll, and neither should you. It’s the trend that batches of multiple polls can capture that is often the most revealing and valuable information.

[viva la]

1. At some point, surely....

At least some Trump voters will think, "What am i thinking? Voting for this guy who is on trial for felonies and bragging about it?"

[Demsrule86]

2. Thank you for posting this...I added it to my post about the Harvard Poll because

the OP referred to Simon Rosenberg as having concluded that Trump was winning...not true. I knew I should post the site. I am joining but it is free. I was too lazy. Thanks!!!!

[Stargleamer]

3. These nationwide polls are pretty much useless

Polls showing how Biden stands in Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine and Pennsylvania tell us more worthy info

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. They will come summertime

In the meantime, as I said, don't put too much faith in any single poll, but look at the trends, and use that to counter the horse race narrative promoted by the MSM.

[Doodley]

4. This is better than I thought, showing the prominence of headlines pushing the narrative that Trump is ahead or equal.

Thanks for posting.

[LiberalFighter]

6. I didn't know Nate Silver got fired. Hah hah

[LiberalFighter]

7. The Marquette and Emerson don't appear to include other.

[WarGamer]

8. RFK Jr just made the ballot in MI...

If we lose MI, we must hold the remaining 2 Blue Wall states... WI and PA...

And hold GA or AZ.

It's gonna be close... will all come down to GOTV.