Polls require the following: - A registered voter who - Has a landline, or - Will answer an "unknown number" call,

[applegrove]

Post by @nardhelain

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"Polls require the following:
- A registered voter who
- Has a landline, or
- Will answer an "unknown number" call, and
- Talk about politics with a stranger.
Think about the demographics that fit this description and how they are likely to vote."

Applegrove:

Sounds like MAGAS to me.

[marble falls]

1. They aren't so strict on the "registered voter" thing.

[womanofthehills]

18. Now - fewer landline and cell calls - more texting and survey panels

'For several decades, most political and social surveys of the U.S. general public were conducted by telephone. In the vast majority of these, respondents were interviewed only once. But changing social and communications habits and the growth of privacy concerns have caused phone survey response rates to decline. Despite this, telephone surveys continue to provide accurate data, a point reinforced by the generally good performance of election polls conducted by phone in the 2018 midterm elections. That said, declining response rates and the shift from landlines to cellphones has led to dramatic increases in the cost of conducting high-quality telephone surveys."

"These trends led to a revival of interest in survey panels – a set of respondents who agree to take repeated interviews over time, thus reducing the need to sample, contact and persuade new respondents each time new data are needed. Panels are hardly a recent invention, but there has been a relatively recent growth in demand for high-quality online panels that use random samples. It was in this context that Pew Research Center decided to create the American Trends Panel in 2014.

Panels have many attractive characteristics when compared with survey designs that conduct only one interview with a sampled individual. Most notable is cost. Panels are expensive to build and properly maintain but, over time, yield interviews that are significantly cheaper than one-off surveys. Survey participation rates among active panelists are quite high (nearly 80%, on average, among ATP members), meaning that less effort is expended in obtaining a desired sample size. But the benefits of survey panels extend far beyond cost."

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/02/27/growing-and-improving-pew-research-centers-american-trends-panel/

[samnsara]

28. the only texting poll i get is associated with a donation at the end..

..so i never answer those as they are just advertising

[Ferryboat]

35. Member of a survey panel here

Have been taking part of frequent polls taken by Ipsos. Variety of topics, health, wealth and of course politics.

Cell phone only. Texting.

[Jirel]

39. Less unreliable, but still unreliable.

Panels are also self-selecting. You can build a “great” panel on paper, but you’ve now pre-selected your percentage of people from various parties and political leanings. Also, people willing to be on (paid) panels are often folks who are in serious need of the reimbursement and have some time to devote for a variety of reasons, from disability to a new baby. This is not going to result in a balanced slice of the voting demographics.

[Attilatheblond]

2. Got a call re school funding in AZ last week. Background noise was call center noise, all with heavy accents.

Only poll calls I ever get are about policy issues. I always talk over the caller asking one question: Who hired this polling activity?

The answer I sometimes get, if any answer at all, is the caller repeating the topic of the poll. So, I repeat my question, a bit more slowly and a bit louder. They don't understand the question, have no answer and I tell them if you don't tell me who commissioned this poll, we are done here. Bye. Click.

[niyad]

4. In the days when I had a landline, that was my question and my action.

[LiberalFighter]

45. I can get nasty when it is apparent it is a call center especially when English is not really their language.

Most of my calls now are either Medicare or Funeral Expenses.

Mostly funeral expenses right now so I ask them where do they want to be buried. Yesterday I added how deep they want to be buried.

[Attilatheblond]

48. Bravo on you sass back at them!

[Sympthsical]

3. I get polled on my mobile all the time

Sometimes voice, sometimes text.

It's rather irritating. Sometimes I answer things, sometimes not. Depends how froggy I'm feeling that particular day.

They never show as an unknown caller. It always comes up as some research something or other. You can generally tell it's them by the name.

[progree]

5. I've only gotten one to my mobile - a text from the Census Bureau asking a bunch of questions

that I know are part of the famous first friday jobs report. And others. It was a link to the survey which then asked the questions, e.g..

In the last 4 weeks did you work for pay or profit? Received unemployment benefits? But only about 4 such because I said I was retired. Then there were a bunch of other questions e.g. estimated annual income, how often I texted with friends or family, have I felt lonely in the last week, any difficulty paying bills, are there opportunities for arts and culture, did I attend any religious services, date of last Covid vaccination? Have you had the RSV vaccine?

[progressoid]

6. Yeah that's not how polling works.

https://mlfm3lrxsoan.i.optimole.com/w:607/h:463/q:mauto/ig:avif/f:best/

[stopdiggin]

16. thank you. you need to put this on repeat (like, a lot!)

this one just doesn't seem to go away.

[oldsoftie]

32. Every time poll #s look bad these stories come out to dismiss them

ANYONE who thinks trump is going to be easily beat simply isnt paying attention to reality. And I'm afraid that there are a lot of people who have removed everything & everyone remotely related to being a trump supporter from they lives that they simply dont know what the "average" voter; especially independent voter, is thinking.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

52. Something I've found hard to believe...

Is that a company whose product has been criticized for unreliability for 20 years due to "Land lines" hadn't found an alternative way to gather it's data.
I mean we've been hearing the same line for decades. Do people honestly believe pollsters don't know that people don't use landlines anymore?

[LeftInTX]

7. Pollsters prefer landlines.

That's because there is no guarantee of the same physical address with a connection to a cell phone. Also the name of the cell phone account changes or it may be erroneous. Someone in Texas may have a NYC area code etc.

When you call a landline, you are calling a stationary phone at an address. You ask for Mrs Mary Jones or whatever.

On a cell phone, they would want to verify your name and address before they start asking questions. The cell numbers in the pollsters database have a higher chance of being the wrong number.

[TheBlackAdder]

8. Then, 3 days later you start getting relentless medicare, accident, insurance scam calls. 🤣

[womanofthehills]

20. More pollsters are using panels now

and texting.

Calling people to poll is way down as they have to make hundreds of calls to get one person to answer. Texting is big. Panels are the latest as they can have thousands of people in the panels and know info on the people to get a diverse group.

[DemocraticPatriot]

9. Most pollsters have moved far beyond "landlines"...

I suppose you still have a "landline"??

This is a proven false premise in this century. You think pollsters don't realize that landlines are a distinct minority now?
The crosstabs in most polls that show these demographics prove that it is false.

There are plenty of problems with modern polling, but only polling listed landline phone numbers is no longer one of them.
The major problem is 'bad sampling' for party demographics,
and quite possibly bad sampling for sex demographics--
since women are more likely to vote,
and ESPECIALLY "post-dobbs"...

[applegrove]

12. It says have a landline or answer an unknown caller.

They are not excluding cell phones.

[kcr]

14. Selective reading comprehension strikes again

Your OP was pretty clear and shows exactly why polling has gone to shit.

[applegrove]

15. Thanks.

[womanofthehills]

21. Polling has changed with the times - panels are popular

Panels and texting .

[Demsrule86]

37. The problem with polling today is they pick whoever ...the samples contain more GOP mostly and independent although

there may be ones with more Democrats...some surveys use panels which I think are the worst sort and they massage the data to counter the mostly shitty sample size and breakdown of voters in political terms using past elections mostly. And at the end, if the criteria doesn't meet what they believe or what the person is paying believes, they massage it some more. And the problem is this election is like no other...and can't be compared to past elections. In every recent election, the polls have been wrong with Democrats overperforming. That is to be expected using the basically useless polling methods described. And it means that you can't really believe any poll. Democrats electoral success in 2016, is a far better indicator than polls, that we will win in November.

[Rhiannon12866]

10. I've made GOTV calls for my congressmen's campaigns and each time fewer likely Democratic voters answer

[pstokely]

25. are you a battleground district or a district that's solid red or blue?

how did they perform relative to what the polls said?

[Rhiannon12866]

29. The (Democratic) congressional candidate I worked on two campaigns for won the first election and lost the second

I liked him a lot. *sigh*

Then we got redistricted and inherited a moderate Democrat from up North who I voted for - I even got a GOTV call from his campaign. But then he retired and I went to the meetup where he introduced his chosen successor who I also liked, made GOTV calls for him as well. However, inexplicably he not only lost, but to one of the worst - Stefanik! She faced protests from her first day in office, but she didn't respond to constituents, as you know. There were even calls for her to resign after she appeared on national TV during the second impeachment hearing alongside Gym Jordan, but she blames everyone but herself.

There were billboards like this throughout the district, I used to pass this one on my way home:
?1612546746771

[pstokely]

11. Who still answers numbers they don't recognize?

assuming they have caller ID, we've been trained to assume numbers we don't recognize are telemarketers, bots, or both

[womanofthehills]

22. no one - that's why pollsters don't call you any more

New times - new methods.

[samnsara]

27. i do cuz I want to be polled.

...i live in the bazoonies and we dont get cell service at my house so of course we have a land line. I do answer calls if i am bored also some of the calls have local caller id but they turn out to be medicare robo calls.

Cold calling is hard enuff without me being a b word to the folks on the other end.

[Think. Again.]

30. Exactly...

...and most (intelligent) people assume online or text attempts are actually scams or requests for donations or info-mining and just delete them.

[PatSeg]

46. Yes

In this day and age, I am very suspicious of anything or anyone I cannot verify easily. I've gotten fake emails from people disguised as friends or family and I certainly wouldn't respond to a text from someone I don't recognize. It seems that the online and text scams are on the rise being so few people answer their phones anymore.

Most of the polls leading up to the 2016 election had Clinton and Democrats in the lead. That is why so many people including Clinton and Trump were surprised when Trump won. Once an election is over, people forget about the poll numbers until the next election.

[tosh]

13. YES absolutely!

I NEVER answer a call from an unknown or unidentified number. That would consume my entire remaining life were I to answer these. I have a thousand of these blocked. My cell phone has gotten equally bad. Why is it even legal for our numbers to be sold and traded like this to scammers and spoofers. It’s the American way!

[GoodRaisin]

23. I've set my phone so it won't even ring if a caller isn't in my contact list.

I don’t even bother to block them. I just never hear their calls, like they don’t exist.

[tosh]

59. Same with me on mobile, and texts are sorted.

I still need a landline though because I live in the sticks (poor cell service). I use a blocker on the landline but it's still a nuisance

[GoodRaisin]

60. That makes sense, at least you can have peace with your cell phone.

I see so many posts from people complaining about all the spam callers, I don’t think many of them realize they have the technology in their cell phones to just set their phones to avoid it all.

[iemanja]

17. No, there are all kinds of polls now

Including text-based polls. This isn't 1980.

[elocs]

19. I predict that this election will be the stake through the heart for polling & any credibility they have left. n/t

[Celerity]

24. that is not how many polls work nt

[samnsara]

26. i fit ALL those criteria and i still havent been polled!!!!

[oldsoftie]

31. I've gotten text messages.

[brooklynite]

33. So, I'm a MAGA?

Argument from Incredulity: "I can't think of a way to get accurate polling data, so its not possible".

[Captain Zero]

34. When NORC polled me last election 2020

It wasn't unidentified. It said something for originating call that identified it.

[former9thward]

36. If polls are worthless then why do Democratic candidates spend tens of millions on them?

I guess the internet knows more than they do.

[Demsrule86]

40. Old habits die hard...and I haven't seen many politically party generated polls...Internal polls are different...

We poll likely Democratic and independents We knock on Democratic voters' doors...done it for years. I have been threatened while getting out the vote when I hit the wrong House. Once, I had someone threaten to sick his Giant dog on me. I replied with as much dignity as possible. "That would be a shame, I would hate to kill such a fine animal." I was bluffing, I didn't have a gun. I did have post office dog spray though. As I was leaving I noticed a confederate flag. I was in the country and new to the area. I didn't knock on any door with those flags again. People move you know and change parties. I have found that calling on independents can be dicey. Usually, they go one way or the other and are not really independent. You have to be careful.

[Jirel]

42. Because poor results are more helpful than no results for some.

We might as well say it out loud - the age of polling is near its end. Yes, polling still has limited uses, particularly in primaries where a candidate wants to know if they’ll be that 3%er or if they’re a contender. It can still get a rough read on trends in various races. What it no longer can do - and will never do again - is get a solid read in a tight race.

We see more polls than ever now, with more diverse/less accurate methods, and they do not agree with each other. That means they are unreliable, full stop.

[doc03]

38. I do two Civics polls about every week, one for each E-mail address. nt

[LAS14]

41. I heard a respected talking head remark...

... that Trump voters are routinely undercounted because there aren't very many "shy" Biden voters. Makes sense to me, unfotunately. I can see plenty of people not wanting to admit that they were going to vote for that... that.... words fail me.

[NanaCat]

43. Or will answer a voice mail or text

Asking them if they'd like to participate in a survey.

Or they can make real-life F2F contact.

And careful with that MAGA accusation, because it's rude and ignorant.

I've not had a landline for nearly 20 years now.

I will talk politics with someone who makes it clear that they merely want to know what I think for survey purposes. I consider it contributing to the greater good.

I don't respond to unknown numbers. As an introvert, I was always keen on anything that kept the phone from disrupting my life. I had an unlisted number from 1982 on. I was an early adopter of the answering machine, caller ID and voice mail. So you'd think pollsters would never find me.

Oddly enough, I'm a beacon for pollsters. All of the biggest names in polling have hit me up, and so have some of the internal pollsters for the parties. My ex and I were even a Nielsen family back in the 80s. Care to guess how that came about? Because they contacted me by mail to become a participant. Not my phone. Good old snail mail.

I'm the person who the exit polls always targeted at a polling place, back when I voted in person. Pollsters have found me in all but a couple of mid-term elections since 1982, and for every single Presidential election over my adulthood. I got polled twice in 2020--after the firms contacted me by voice mail in one case, and text in another. I responded.

So they do talk to liberals, contrary to your rude and unwarranted assumption.

You can't have it both ways: You can't whine about the polls not showing what you want to see, and then say that you won't talk to strangers about politics. Guess what, kemosabe? If you don't talk to the strangers at polling firms like Pew or Marist, then your liberal voice will not be heard, and thus not counted. And then you wonder why the polls don't show more Democratic Party love?

Maybe stop spurning their attention and start telling them what you think when they do contact you, so that they can get a more accurate picture of what the electorate thinks.

Gee, making yourself heard--What a concept!

[PatSeg]

47. Thank you for the interesting input

But I don't think the original poster deserves to be called "rude and unwarranted". Nor do I think they were whining.

We are just having a conversation.

[applegrove]

54. Thanks.

[PatSeg]

57. Any time!

[Midnight Writer]

44. I took a polling call the other day from Rasmussen. Showed up on the caller ID on my landline.

Recorded voice asked a few innocuous questions, then asked for my political party. When I said Democrat, the call switched to a different voice to continue the questioning. I assume that if I had identified as Republican or Independent then I would have gotten a different set of questions.

I tried to be alert to "push poll" type questions, but did not detect any obvious ones. The questions seemed pretty standard.

A friend of mine took a polling call, and the live caller wanted to speak to "the male head of the house". When she said her husband was not available to speak, but she would answer the questions, the caller said he could not accept that and hung up.

[Wednesdays]

50. As for your bottom paragraph, that's not necessarily nefarious

It may very well be that the pollster's next interviewee had to be male (because the quota of female interviewees had already been filled).

[Wednesdays]

49. That's not always true, there are also online polls

Last year I completed online surveys for a little pocket change, and several of those surveys were politics-related. In the end, they take everyone's surveys and screen them based on gender, race, age, and geographical location, presumably creating a weighted result. I'm sure many of these end up being the "polls" you see posted at the various political and news sites.

However, there are several problems with such results. First, in order to participate, the interviewees have to have a computer and Internet service. Next, they have to be interested in taking online surveys, and take the time to sign up for them. That alone can skew results widely from actual attitudes of potential voters.

ETA: The first telephone political poll, conducted by The Literary Digest, was done in 1936, and it predicted a landslide win for Landon over FDR. Take a look at the Electoral College results for 1936 and tell me how well that worked out.

[TheProle]

51. And yet...

The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased yet again against Republicans, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

[RandySF]

53. Not true

Pollsters call cell phones all the time.

[rzemanfl]

56. Enjoy your stay,

[ms liberty]

58. Welcome to DU. How do you like your pizza?

[Tribetime]

61. Biden think he's ahead doesn't believe recent polls

He must have internal polling that's much better

[brooklynite]

62. Apparently the armchair prosecutors have made a career change?