Call me a cynic or Obama basher or whatever but here's my theory

[cali]

I doubt that the administration believes that Assad will comply with their demands, but I think they're seizing the opportunity to have some breathing space. The vote in Congress is being put off- something both Congressional leaders and the White House desire. That's good for the President. Having a vote go against him would be politically damaging This gives the administration badly needed time to map strategy.

<snip>

“This is a huge gamble by the president, putting at risk not only what’s left of his domestic agenda but also his foreign policy,” said Jim Manley, a former longtime aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.). “A rejection by the Congress would be a serious setback.”

<snip>

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-321274/

Senate delays Syria vote as Obama loses momentum

President Obama's push for congressional approval for military airstrikes in Syria ran aground Monday, forcing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to delay a procedural vote as opposition builds among senators in both parties.


<snip>

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/09/obama-congress-syria-vote-in-doubt/2788597/

<snip>

Ghadbian said he and other members of the Syrian opposition met with senior White House officials Monday evening and asked “whether they are taking this seriously or if it’s just something they had to respond to.”

“Actually, the administration didn’t really give as much weight to it as the media is,” Ghadbian said. “So it was good to hear that.”

The officials “don’t really believe it’s a credible proposal,” Ghadbian said.


<snip>

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/syrian-opposition-wary-of-russian-proposal

The President got what he needed right now and that's time to regroup. Politically, it's a very smart move. He's mitigating the political shit storm this whole Syria thing has become.

[leveymg]

1. He didn't have the votes in the House. Maybe not in the Senate. Simple as that.

You basically nailed it.

[cali]

3. yes, this is way more about politics then it about Syria itself

still, it's a smart move and it's good on all fronts. It puts the brakes on.

[leveymg]

6. It's the equivalent of a punt.

He wasn't going to make the 1st down, much less a winning touchdown.

There's lots of time left in the game. Unfortunately.

[cali]

10. I agree with that, but breathing space is a good thing

I just think that a) the cheering is premature and b) that this is about averting political disaster and not some brilliant planned out chess move. not even close to being the latter.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

12. Don't leave out the cheerleaders and the fantasy league from your analogy.

[leveymg]

14. That's a perfect complement to the analogy. Thanx

[Bjorn Against]

2. Wasn't the Administration insisting they were not getting involved in the civil war?

If they are not getting involved in the civil war then why is the White House having meetings with the rebels?

[cali]

4. I don't see that as nefarious.

The administration has been pretty open about supporting the opposition. They've said they don't want to be the determinative factor in the civil war, but they haven't hidden that they believe Assad should go.

[Bjorn Against]

7. It just seems like they are trying to have it both ways

They are meeting with the opposition and proposing bombing the other side, yet when they speak to the public they say they are not taking sides in the civil war because they know that will sell better even if it is not true.

[KoKo]

25. Well I have problems with this also. The rebels just took over a

Christian Site that had been protected by Assad and they are bombing treasures that go back into Chritianities History.

These are the Rebels that Obama is meeting with?

[JI7]

5. that guy is a professor in the US and a representative to the US of some opposition

group.

[jaysunb]

8. Are you old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis ?

There are some pretty strong parallels here.

[NuclearDem]

9. Hadn't thought of that, but that's a damn good example.

"Limited strike" isn't war, quarantine isn't blockade. Serious military posturing with back room deals that allow both sides to save face.

[cali]

16. I am and you're right. very interesting parallels.

the stakes, thankfully, aren't as high.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

11. My assessment FWIW

Obama barely has a majority of Democrats supporting his adventure. That's sad in partisan in terms. Among GOPers (naturally) and Indies he's cratering hard. Depending on the poll opinion against this debacle in the making is running 70 to 90 percent.

The day before congress votes Kerry issues an ultimatum That's dumb and counter productive because he's making threats everyone knows he cannot guarantee enforcing while challenging congress' authority as a co-equal branch and the arbiter of AUMF's. Then Putin swoops in at the height of the self-embarrassment and tells Assad to accept the terms of that ultimatum. So, Obama has pissed all over congress by issuing presumptive ultimatums and then Putin snatches away the stated reason for the AUMF.

Those (both foreign and domestic) who don't want the war will be pushing for the President to concede to whatever deal Putin can bring to fruition. This makes Putin the broker of peace, regardless of his cynical motives. And his motives are cynical so you better believe he thinks he has Obama roped by his maneuver. Obama isn't the only one who gets to move pieces on that 33-dimensional chess board. It also leads the US by the nose into dealing with a regime (Assad's) that it had already declared illegitimate; another foreign policy reversal.

Refusal to do so on the President's part will make him look like a warmonger just scrapping for a fight. This would make him worse than his predecessor whom he was elected to replace for being such a warmonger.

And yet. And yet! This is Obama's best deal and he'd be foolish to reject it.

[cali]

15. I really doubt that it will pan out

I don't think Assad will bend far enough. It sure does give him needed time though too. Even if it doesn't pan out and Assad doesn't comply with the demands that will be made, the time out is a good thing.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

19. Suppose, for conversation's sake, Assad is jerking us around and a year later

No real movement has been seen on abandoning his CW stockpiles or we're left to believe he has sacrificed only a token amount or some other offense.

In a year's time will the President's hand be any stronger or will the political and diplomatic savaging from this misadventure leave him weaker?

[CTyankee]

45. oh, I think Obama will come out of this looking good. As more and more nations sign

on, Assad is the one who will be afraid. He won't be able to resist all of the international pressure. I notice that France has stepped up now that they see a diplomatic solution (and a face saving one for them!) and other nations will also step up. Assad can't buck the entire world. He'll be up against a wall...

[KoKo]

26. Agree except that Obama is polling very well with Democrats...It's the

Independents and Repugs who are polled who don't want this intervention. If he just went with the polling of Dems who elected him TWICE....wouldn't he be better off than chasing Indies and Repugs votes?

[dixiegrrrrl]

13. Very interesting that Sorkin's The Newsroom has an extended story line about...sarin.

And LOTS of people are watching that show. This is the 3rd week of the story line...
amazing co-incidence.

[KoKo]

29. Seriously...how can one do Three Shows about Sarin Gas?

[dixiegrrrrl]

41. Very well, if you can write like Sorkin.

Three episodes covered findig out about the story, then vetting it, with suspense being if it could be true,
then 3rd episode about what happened after the story was run.
and somehow, magically, the topic was watched by just over 2 million people at the same time the real life sarin gas is in the news...

[LittleBlue]

17. He was headed for embarrassing defeat in the house

Putin sensed this and took the opportunity when Kerry misspoke. He gave Obama an offer he couldn't refuse that solidified the Assad regime.

Putin achieves his strategic objective, and Obama extricates himself from his red line blunder.

[ProSense]

18. I don't think

"I doubt that the administration believes that Assad will comply with their demands, but I think they're seizing the opportunity to have some breathing space. The vote in Congress is being put off- something both Congressional leaders and the White House desire. That's good for the President. Having a vote go against him would be politically damaging This gives the administration badly needed time to map strategy."

...it would have been "damaging." It certainly could have allowed the mocking to continue in the short term, but Congress voting no doesn't mean the problem goes away.

Remember, members of Congress agree with the assessment regarding Assad's use of chemicals. That's why you have members who don't support the President's approach offering their own proposals, and any way you slice it, those proposals are ultimatums.

There is also the UN, which even before today's developments, were prepared to act after its report. The statements by members of the G-20 and the EU means the international community was not going to let up.

So in the short term, a no vote would have been a set back.

The situation changed today, and a vote is no longer urgent.

Obama Puts Syria Strike On Pause As Possible Diplomatic Solution Emerges
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023632691

President Barack Obama on Syria and the Russian proposal.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023633079

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. Well, that's not what I'd call ya, but it was inevitable that you and the crew would spin it nega-

tively. What's new about that?

[cali]

21. what? No actual comment on what I posited? What do you disagree with?

[dionysus]

22. that's fighting woids! PUT EM UP!1!11

[Skip Intro]

40. What could possibly be the "positive" spin? n/t

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

23. He's been getting burned pretty bad internationally. First with the NSA scandal, and now with Syria

He has an opportunity, here, for a drastic course change that could be historical. Putin has become the "broker of peace". Obama could join with Putin and set some goals for the Middle East by working for a regional conference with both of them as facilitators. Between them, they could actually make demands by taking neutral positions between the all of the antagonists and make a real attempt at settlements that have some strength.

Do I think that such statesmanship would be shown by either Putin or Obama......no.

I'm a cynic too.

[KoKo]

28. Interesting Points. Recommend...although I don't think we yet know

the Whole Story...or the truth of this.

[dionysus]

24. i don't see what's bashing in that post...

maybe cynical

[cali]

43. it's not meant to be bashing or praise

just clear eyed analysis.

or something like that.

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. "time to regroup"...

unless it was the outcome he hoped for....but was determined to follow through if necessary. That's called courage...I know you may not have seen that in a President in a while...

[Pholus]

31. An interesting critique of the last few years. nt

[VanillaRhapsody]

33. courage?

[Pholus]

42. no... that it hasn't been seen in a while. nt

[agent46]

30. Saving Face

I think Obama painted himself into a corner trying to drive the now exposed and wildly unpopular PNAC agenda. I think this is Putin's way of letting him back-peddle out of it and save face. I don't buy the nine dimensional chess master theory. Never did.

[VanillaRhapsody]

34. the PNAC silliness EVEN now?

[agent46]

36. Just sentimental I guess

[VanillaRhapsody]

38. Oh okay...for a second there...

but after the past week here ....No bar appeared to be too low!

[babylonsister]

32. And I doubt he jumped into this half assed.

Luckily, he has a lot more info than we do, has a strategy that could very possibly be changing as conditions warrant, and might just be implementing it.

He never wanted a war or anything close to it, but I think his principles wouldn't allow Assad to gas people, his own people, indiscriminately.

I don't want to argue and won't. Just my humble opinion.

[WinkyDink]

35. Or half-Assad.

[JoePhilly]

37. You prior theory was Obama would bomb Syria over the Labor Day weekend

Wasn't it?

Or was that some one else?

[Skip Intro]

39. It's a disaster no matter the outcome.

I really don't see how he saves face politically. I'm embarrassed for him and the nation.

And with people's lives and another war at stake, his poltical future shouldn't be a driving concern for him. I certainly hope that it isn't, but...

The whole thing looks like amateur hour, and Obama, Kerry and Rice look clueless. I don't see how you save face in this situation.

Big ugly mess of his own making.

[cali]

44. I don't think so. I think this is a masterful save

also, it's naive to expect that political considerations wouldn't be a factor.

[MineralMan]

46. Stuff's Complicated.

There are, no doubt, layers of information known only to the players. Right now, there's a hiatus on plans to attack Assad's CW stockpiles. That, in itself, is a good outcome.

Trying to second guess with very little real information is not useful, usually.

For all I know, Obama and Putin cooked this up in a quiet conversation during the G20. Since it wouldn't do to make that conversation public, the situation is what the situation is.

No bombing? That's a good thing, I'd think.

Trying to find a way to blame Obama for getting what most people wanted? I can't see that as a positive thing, really.

We're not sending cruise missiles crashing into Syria. That's good. I'm glad.