A brilliant chess strategy? Maybe. But i think a more likely scenario is . . .

[markpkessinger]

(1) Kerry, in an unguarded moment, made an off-handed remark;

(2) Putin took him up on it;

(3) The State Department began frantically walking the remark back; until

(4) Someone at the White House said, "Hey, wait a minute, this might just be a way out of the corner we've painted ourselves into."

But whatever. IF it pans out (which is still a big 'If'), I don't really care who gets the credit. I will just be relieved that a solution short of missile strikes has been found.

[VanillaRhapsody]

1. giggle...

yeah...sure...

Obama then called Pootie and Assad and said..."Hey buddies...can you help a guy out here?"

Bout as likely

[NoOneMan]

3. Its more likely is this is step 104 of 5246 in a massive plan to free the Oregon Refugees in 2053

And only if you were truly omniscient, as our chosen leader is, you would understand why it is so important to free this future endangered group of our brothers. Yes, much more likely than the simplest answer that Occam might also find sensible (which is that this is a backwards clusterfuck in diplomacy that didn't go as rotten as it could have)

[Llewlladdwr]

18. You don't think Putin would "help out" if the price was right?

Maybe ask that Obama back off on Snowden and Russia's new anti-gay laws in return for reining in Syria?

[VanillaRhapsody]

24. Yes please please continue on this track...

[leftstreet]

2. Looks like Putin is the chess player

And +1 to the RELIEF that missiles aren't flying at the moment

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. Okay...THAT made me laugh even harder...

[LittleBlue]

4. I think everyone knows this

Or they're lying to themselves. Obama's new claim that they spoke at the G20 is embarrassing, clearly he's misleading or we wouldn't have had war talk for days until Kerry's gaffe.

It took Russia far too little time to propose it and get agreement from Syria, and it took the White House far too long to agree.

[VanillaRhapsody]

6. and not to be outdone...LittleBlue from the rear...

and now I just pee'd myself a little

[DisgustipatedinCA]

28. Be sure to let us know when your bowels let go.

[Just Saying]

32. Nope.

Or they're lying to themselves. Obama's new claim that they spoke at the G20 is embarrassing, clearly he's misleading or we wouldn't have had war talk for days until Kerry's gaffe.

Why is he clearly misleading? What would give him more power in diplomatic talks to disarm Syria then the very real threat that he'd use military force against them? Within a day is "too long" in what world?

No, we all don't "know" your version of events. I believe they've been working on diplomacy as well as military options all along. One motivates the other.

[Tx4obama]

7. POTUS talked with Putin about this Russian plan last week in their 20-min pull aside at G20

DU OP here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023634350

[Marr]

13. Funny-- wasn't that billed around here as "Obama calls Putin a jackass" at the time?

[Tx4obama]

20. The Borowitz Report is like The Onion, ya know? - Are you talking about Borowitz's satire piece?

This one: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023613131

[Marr]

27. Oh, god-- that's the one.

I remembered a satire piece as something serious. Thanks for the link.

[Tx4obama]

31. Well, IF Obama had really said that then it would have been on the front page of all the newspapers

... and all the cable shows would still be talking about it

As far as some of the 'satire' pieces the past year or so - there have been so many that have sound like they could be reality I can see what folks might get confused at times or remember them as real.

This past year every time a read a headline that sounds shocking I always check out the URL before reading the article.

There are at least four that show up on DU quite a lot: The Borowitz Report, The Onion, The Daily Currant, and I can't remember the name of the other one at the moment.

[markpkessinger]

15. So says the White House n/t

[joshcryer]

33. Putin is free to deny it.

[BlueCheese]

8. To me, how you describe it is almost obviously what happened.

The idea that this entire thing was done on purpose is silly. If it was all part of the plan, what else was part of the plan?

Having Parliament cut David Cameron off at the knees?
Being dead set on attacking Syria, only to change course and ask Congress so suddenly that even White House senior aides were shocked?
Staking the administration's credibility on a vote that seems certain to fail in lopsided fashion?
Having the president's approval rating on foreign affairs sink to 40%?
Arranging for a reporter to ask the question that led to the proposal?
Having Kerry say preemptively that Syria wouldn't accept such a proposal?
Immediately claiming it was rhetorical and not meant seriously?
Not telling our allies, or the UN, or Congress ahead of time that we were going to make such a proposal?

In any case, so what if this is all an accident? If it leads to diplomacy instead of war, it's a good development. That's really the only important thing, isn't it? Isn't that more important than the prestige or reputation of any one individual?

[leftstreet]

10. +1

You should make this an OP

Very reasoned and concise

[BlueCheese]

14. Thanks. But I've had too long of a day for that.

But you or anyone else can take it and run with it as you wish.

[Nevernose]

9. Your number one might be wrong

According to NPR, Ban Ki Moon was the first person to float the idea, and Kerry and Putin probably picked it up from him. BKM was going to propose that the UN do the heavy lifting.

[spanone]

11. i'll go with brilliant chess strategy.

[frazzled]

12. If you don't think they've been negotiating this for a long time ...

and failing in every case--in negotiations with the Syrian government, with Russia, in the UN--to try to get the chemical weapons thing under control, you don't know your foreign policy under this administration.

Obama said as much in his interviews today: we have been negotiating this for several years, with no results. The threat of military action has decidedly stepped up the willingness of the parties to negotiate.

[Cha]

16. Some people just can't or won't get it, frazzled. They always

underestimate Pres Obama at their own risk.

[VanillaRhapsody]

26. Hey thats my line!

[KittyWampus]

22. I posted info to my journal from early August of Kerry meeting Lavrov. DU'ers were too busy humping

Snowden and Greenwald to pay attention to anything else.

[frazzled]

23. You should repost it ...

because people don't understand that these kinds of back-door negotiations are going on all the time. They live on a 24-hour news cycle that makes them see only trees and no forests.

[Cha]

37. I agree with frazzled, KW.. Please repost if

you want to.

[reformist2]

17. Those still claiming Obama was in control all along...desperate and in denial, maybe even delusional

[joshcryer]

36. The President of the largest military must always be in control.

That's their job.

So many options existed. So many outs.

People seem to be making this about image more than anything.

It's silly.

[KittyWampus]

19. Occam's Razor. Kerry has been working on diplomacy for YEARS. And he is not a war monger.

So is it simpler to see this as diplomacy bearing fruit?

Or someone who has spent a career working for diplomacy and democratic ideals to suddenly become a warmonger?

Just because you haven't been paying attention to what Kerry has been doing doesn't mean he hasn't been working diplomatic channels. It just means you haven't been paying attention.

[JI7]

21. Kerry mentioned something that Obama had discussed with Putin

and i'm sure which later Obama had discussed with Kerry also.

[progressoid]

25. Oh you doubting Thomases just can't see the big picture...

[DeSwiss]

41. My theory is that it was one of these guys what set things off.....

- And they know how, because they've been doin' it longer.....
[center]
[/center]

[Control-Z]

29. If you really mean this:

"IF it pans out (which is still a big 'If'), I don't really care who gets the credit. I will just be relieved that a solution short of missile strikes has been found."

Why the OP (that is mostly to the contrary) then?

[markpkessinger]

30. Because it hasn't panned out yet . . .

. . . or did you not notice the IF that preceded the comment you quoted?

[Control-Z]

40. So you'll do your blamin'

or appreciatin' after the fact? Either way, POTUS won't look good. I'm just saying, that is what it sounds like to me. If it works out well, doesn't matter the role the president played. If it goes bad, it will be all thanks to Obama.

Again, I'm just saying that's the way it sounds - with all th he Obama hatred around here these days...... if I'm mistaken about your motives for the OP, I sincerely apologize.

[ProSense]

34. What exactly

(1) Kerry, in an unguarded moment, made an off-handed remark;

(2) Putin took him up on it;

(3) The State Department began frantically walking the remark back; until

(4) Someone at the White House said, "Hey, wait a minute, this might just be a way out of the corner we've painted ourselves into."

But whatever. IF it pans out (which is still a big 'If'), I don't really care who gets the credit. I will just be relieved that a solution short of missile strikes has been found.

... is "unguarded" about stating that Assad turning over his stock pile would avert strikes? I mean, it seems the implication is that this comment somehow has nothing to do with the actual objective of preventing another chemical attack. Assad turning over the weapons solves the problem.

This situation only came about because of Kerry's comment and Russia's response. You claim the administration had "painted" itself into a corner. Putin had absolutely no reason to give Obama an out, and he certainly had no reason to put Assad on the spot (http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023630685). He could have ignored Kerry's statement and let things proceed as before.

Putin knew the deal. He was under pressure to do something other than obstruct. That is why he jumped on Kerry's offer.

Obama has already proven to the majority of people who have an official say that Assad did it. Members of Congress and the international community have condemned Assad.

A no vote in Congress would not mean the problem would go away. It would have been a set back, likely sparking comments about how Obama handled the situation, but that's no different from what was happening before today.

Regardless of how Congress votes, members have condemned Assad. They agree with the assessment regarding Assad's use of chemicals. That's why you have members who don't support the President's approach offering their own proposals, and any way you slice it, those proposals are ultimatums.

There is also the UN, which even before today's developments, was prepared to act after its report. The statements by members of the G-20 and the EU means the international community was not going to let up. More countries comdemned Assad today.

[joshcryer]

35. Russia hasn't budged until now. What changed?

What changed Mark? Name something that actually changed, other than "image issues" which another poster thinks is relevant.

The saber rattling did it and Obama maybe wasn't actually bluffing but it was clear his personal preference was not to strike.

[Savannahmann]

38. I'm afraid I agree with you.

The sad part is that this outcome was the best one a week ago. People here, myself included, were posting it at that time. Those who think the Administration was posturing to this goal are fooling themselves, but nobody else.

Escalation. That is the technique of ramping up. You start with something small, and then up the ante until you reach the ultimate.

An example from everyday life. You find someone leaning on your car. You ask them to move. They either do or don't. If they don't, you get more insistent and as them to move now. They refuse to, then you escalate further, either dialing the police, calling security, or if you are a personal attention kind of an individual, you offer physical force to move them.

President Obama began with the physical force, and now is moving down the ladder to the more insistent request level. That isn't multi dimensional chess, that is juvenile bluster. I don't blame President Obama. I blame his advisors. They misread the situation. They proposed the course of action, and convinced the President it was the only viable option. We had to spank Assad for the temerity of ignoring President Obama's warning. How dare he ignore us that way?

I blame the advisors because anyone could have, should have started with the demand to remove the weapons to the UN. You can always escalate from there, and look rational, focused, and determined. Instead we began with the moronic humanitarian bombing campaign idea, which is insulting to the intelligence of everyone over the age of six.

You start reasonable and soft because from there you can go up, and look to the world that you are a rational adult thinking individual. "Sir, would you mind getting off my car?"

Nine times out of ten, that works. The times that it doesn't you can always go up from there. "Get off my car now." Then if you are a personal attention type. "Get your ass off my car before I kick your ass all over this parking lot."

If you start from there, you have nowhere to go but violence, which at best will result in dents in your car, and bruises on your hands. At worst, you end up in the hospital, or the morgue. You can't then follow up that with a less demanding. "Get off my car now."

It is the rule of escalation, and it is a basic principle of negotiation. We tossed that principle out the window, because someone convinced our President that he needed to go out there strong and show that we weren't tolerating anything. We tried to escalate to removal of Assad, but that went over worse than the humanitarian missiles, which would have been hard to believe since Humanitarian Missiles were only slightly more popular than herpes.

[markpkessinger]

39. Wow -- perfectly stated!

Thank you!

[DeSwiss]

42. ''How dare he ignore us that way?''

How dare he ignore us that way like Congress?

/fixed

- Now it's a really great post!

[Skittles]

43. worthy of its own thread

[ocpagu]

44. Makes no sense.

If it was planned the administration wouldn't try to contradict Kerry after he talked too much. Trying to say now, "hey, we knew he would do that" makes no sense at all.