The long shadow of the President who cried wolf: GWB

[andym]

Last edited Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:23 PM - Edit history (1)

It's remarkable the effect that GWB has had on America and the world. From standing by and watching Hurricane Katrina decimate New Orleans, to allowing a full blown financial panic to almost destroy the US and world economy, to exploiting 9/11 to start a war in Iraq based on flimsy and/or false evidence, GWB stands alone as possibly the worst US president ever.

What's clear from recent events is that he still casts a long shadow over America and the world. In some ways DU is a microcosm for how Bush's presidency continues to influence Americans. Although DU was created during Bush/Gore debacle, it's growth was fueled by the need to counter Bush's push for war the following year. Any hint of belligerent activity in the Middle East, even by a moderate Democratic president immediately reminded many of what GWB did in Iraq, how Bush cried wolf, and opposition to any kind of attack on Syria was almost instinctual. That the proposed strikes were related to purported use of WMDs in Syria like in Iraq just added fuel to the fire, and skepticism about the claims of who launched the attack as well as the motives of the US government runs very high, as justifiably it did then about, for example, the existence of WMDs in Iraq. Skepticism about taking any action in Syria extends to Congress and if the polling is to be believed the American public.

However, the most striking evidence of GWB's continued influence is the reaction of the Russians to Secretary Kerry's off-the-cuff suggestion today that led a possible resolution of the crisis over possible WMD use by Syria. The Russians immediately took up the offer and apparently were able to convince their "friends" in Syria to give up their chemical weapons. The most likely reason is that they too remembered the destruction of their "friends" in their former client state of Iraq by aggressive American actions, and remembering GWB's shadow, decided that something similar could happen in Syria, given how much like out-of-control cowboys Americans must appear to them. They probably are deeply concerned about the destruction of another "friendly" state and further demonstration of their weakness in the post cold war era. It's probable that Putin consciously understands that President Obama is not in any way GW Bush and that President Obama was not going to try to redo Iraq in Syria, but the fear instilled by GWB and his minions in Putin's mind and those of his advisers of potential aggressive American behavior is simply too great. There is a great irony here: if things work out, and WMDs are peaceably removed from Syria, the long shadow of GW Bush may have actually for once averted death and destruction.

[jollyreaper2112]

1. Brinksmanship

Making the other guy think you're nuts can be a strategy up to a point. Problem is, you can't predict crazy, you can't trust it to do things rational-like. Only way to deal with crazy is crush it the first chance you get. While I don't think things will go nuclear yet, I think having a national reputation for being Margot Kidder on the front lawn-crazy will not be good for us.

[Victor_c3]

2. Yikes!

It is hard to believe that bush actually may have in some way done something good as a result of his destructive policies in the Middle East. As true as I think your statements and assessments are, I'm having a hard time coming to terms with that.

Your post was well written and very well thought out. Thanks for that.

[TheKentuckian]

3. When was Iraq a Russian client state? Saddam was our boy.

I also take some exception to the Bush shadow narrative within our borders as well, a factor to be dead certain but not the only one as we have decades chock full of bullshit war from Korea on and especially in the Viet Nam meat grinder.

Junior Bush simply took too big of a bite of the usual apple.

Please stop trying to rehab our shitty wars, the old one stink to high heaven too.

[andym]

5. Iraq and Russia have a long history of friendship and cooperation

The Soviet Union and Russia had a special relationship with Iraq for a very long time that predated modern times and continued from the Soviet era into the Russian one. Their relationship with Iraq was far longer and deeper than the US one. Below you'll find some of the history. As for prior American wars also having their influence on the Russians, I think that is correct, not mentioning them above doesn't mean that I was "rehabbing" them, just that more recent events/behavior play a more significant role psychologically for most people, since they're fresher.

Historically, it was probably the Vietnam war that is the strongest source of the pacifism that we hear on DU, since it created the strongest anti-war movement in American history, that lives on to this day. But I think this is almost too obvious to mention.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq%E2%80%93Russia_relations
A few highlights:

"Since then, for about forty years until the Gorbachev perestroika in the late 1980s, Soviet-Iraqi cooperation was both close and multi-faceted, and for most of the period it was even officially called a "strategic partnership". In 1967, Iraq signed an agreement with the USSR to supply the nation with oil in exchange for large-scale access to Eastern Bloc arms.[5] In 1972, Egypt ordered the Soviet military personnel in the country to leave and Iraq soon became one of the Soviet Union's closest allies in the Middle East.[6] During this time, the USSR and Iraq had signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in which both countries promised to help each other under threat and to avoid entering hostile alliances against one another.[7]"

How they behaved during the first Iraq war:
"While condemning the Iraqi invasion, Gorbachev continues to assist Saddam militarily. By Moscow's own admission, in an 22 August official press conference with Red Army Colonel Valentin Ogurtsov, 193 Soviet military advisors still are training and assisting Iraq's one million-man armed forces. Privately, Pentagon sources say that between 3,000 and 4,000 Soviet military advisors may be in Iraq."[8]
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 the newly-independent Russian Federation and the Republic of Iraq established diplomatic relations and maintained military and economic ties."

"Russia had strongly opposed the UN sanctions maintained on Iraq after the Persian Gulf War and called on the UN to lift it. But the United States had strongly refused to support any lifting of the sanctions. Russia had strongly opposed the Iraq War and had refused to support military action against Iraq. President Vladimir Putin called it a serious mistake and said that only the United Nations can solve this dispute. He also said that the U.S.-U.K. military action ran counter to international opinion.[9] Nevertheless Russia still refused to meet with CPA administrator Paul Bremer and only met with members of the Iraqi Governing Council instead.[10] "

Even after the 2nd Iraqi war, Russia tried to make friends with the new Iraqi government:
"But Russia only came to assist Iraq after the Coalition Provisional Authority was disbanded and a new Iraqi government took power. On 7 December 2004 Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Iraqi interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and both countries pledged to cooperate on terrorism and to strengthen ties.[11] On 14 September 2005, Vladimir Putin met with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Mr Talabani called on Russia to assist Iraq and he maintained the strong ties that existed between Russia and Iraq since the Soviet Union.[12]" Note even the new iraqi leaders were aware of the special ties betwen Russia and America.

The reason you think Saddam Hussein was our boy, was that time when the US drew closest to Iraq, was the Iran/Iraq war, was the time that Russia had their greatest difficulty with Iraq, because they also wished to be close to Iran.
"The policy of the Soviet Union towards the Iran–Iraq War of 1980 to 1988 varied, beginning with a stance of "strict neutrality" and moving towards massive military support for Iraq in the final phase of the war. The war was inconvenient for the USSR, which had aimed to ally itself with both Iran and Iraq." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union_and_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War This allowed President Reagan to take the Iraqi side against Iran, and make inroads, but our ties there were never as strong as the Soviet Union/Russia, except for the first phase of the Iraqi-Iran war.

[markiv]

4. this shadow goes all the way back to Tonkin Gulf, in 1964

Americans being tired of being told 'War is the only way!'

[andym]

6. The antiwar movement that began in the 1960s was the most significant in US history

so you have a point. There were pacifist movements before/during WWI and WWII, but they were small and unpopular. Vietnam is most responsible for bringing pacifism into the mainstream in the USA, especially amongst the more progressive/liberal folks who are the vast majority DU. I linked to a quiz once several years ago that examined how liberal one was from a long series of questions. Several hundred DUers reported their results in poll I posted, and the results indicated that most of DU, including myself, was far to the left of most self-identified liberals.

[markiv]

7. anti-war is every bit as much conservative as it is liberal

there's nothing 'conservative' about fighting other nation's battles for free - 'neocon' definitely, but not truly conservative.

"There were pacifist movements before/during WWI and WWII, but they were small and unpopular."

Robert Taft was both conservative and anti-war - he opposed WWII, and was prominent in the Republican party

[andym]

10. There is a traditional strain of isolationism in the GOP that goes back well into history (post-WWI)

The aftermath of WWI created the first real disgust with war worldwide in modern history. The GOP and American response in the 1920s was basically isolationism. Robert Taft was a conservative imbued with that traditional isolationist, mind your own business spirit. Perhaps Rand Paul is taking up this mantle, and is an example of a burgeoning conservative movement against war, though I suspect it is again more in the traditional GOP isolationist spirit.

With the Cold War, both the GOP and the Democrats, liberals and conservatives were engaged in world affairs and perfectly willing to support the Korean and Vietnam wars, as well as numerous smaller skirmishes around the world. It was only Vietnam that stimulated the great anti-war pacifist movement that still exists primarily among some progressives.

So there may be a fundamental distinction among the pacifism associated with liberals and the isolationism by some conservatives. Of course, this is an oversimplification, as there are conservatives who hate war, and liberals who would not hesitate to advance war.

[KoKo]

8. DU was created in Dec. 2000 in the aftermath of Supreme Court's decision to give Bush the

Presidency over Al Gore who was the rightful winner of the 2000 Election.

Just to correct what you said:

"DU was created in large part to counter Bush's push for war.."

[andym]

9. Thanks for the info.

That makes sense and I will update the essay.