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cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:04 PM Sep 2013

If Syria wants to disarm it is able to do so.

re: The question of whether a "Russian Plan" Syrian disarmament is factually, logistically feasible.

Short answer, sure. Yes. The question would be what would satisfy us, but the actual disarmement is no great trick.

Analyzing whether it would be feasible to implement the Russian plan requires that we set aside preconceptions based on the Iraq inspection regime and look at what is literally being talked about.

Syria willingly turning over control of some materials Syria currently controls (located in areas Syria controls militarily) that combined would take up less space than a Home Depot.

All talk of inspectors and difficulty of finding things and such overlook the key word, willingly.


If Syria decides, for whatever reason, to render itself incapable of further use of Sarin it can do so, fairly easily.

If Syria is not willing and honest and does not decide to no longer have the ability to use Sarin, then forcing that reality upon them would require a war.


Syria can, easily and securely, deliver tons and tons of chemical weapons material to some border point or port for somebody else to take custody of them. Problem solved.

Would that satisfy us? Would we accept that was all of it? Aha! That is a different question that gets into all sorts of complexities.


But if we don't trust Syria then what's the point in even talking about something that we could not verify 100% without ocupying the country and stopping the war to then commence looking under matteresses for stray chemicals?

See the point? The whole thing is either predicated in some degre of trust, or on us being sensible and being glad that we decomissioned a shit-load of Sarin that won't kill anyone now, even if there is some remnant supply somewhere.


We would have to be satisfied with decomissioning a big bunch of chemical weapons, for its own sake.



We are talking about the Syrian regime deciding to do something, honestly and unilaterally, or we are talking about nothing.

It is distinctly possible that we are, in fact, talking about nothing. That may be the case.


Added complexities like how could Syria prove to us that they had done so are not the same as "could it be done." Adding a wrinkle of "could it be done to our satisfaction" is a whole new tangent.

(Recall that Saddam Hussein did, in fact, disarm... like a decade before we invaded. It was no major undertaking... just wrecking and burning and burying some stuff.)

If there is no logistically feasible way to satisfy us then that is a function of our expectations. But Syria disarming in terms of chemical weapons is a fairly easy thing for Syria to accomplish, as a logistical task.

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Syria wants to disarm it is able to do so. (Original Post) cthulu2016 Sep 2013 OP
My biggest worry now sharp_stick Sep 2013 #1
This thing will probbably be a poison pill, and I think cthulu2016 Sep 2013 #4
Interesting "fear." JackRiddler Sep 2013 #5
We are talking about Putin telling his client state, Syria, what to do. MADem Sep 2013 #2
Fact: This is also true of the United States JackRiddler Sep 2013 #3

sharp_stick

(14,400 posts)
1. My biggest worry now
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:09 PM
Sep 2013

is that Syria starts to add conditions onto it's support of the Russian initiative if it feels the heat is off.

The big one, and one that happens all the time in the Middle East is. "We will happily turn over all of our chemical weapons as soon as Israel agrees to do the same with it's nuclear inventory."

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts)
4. This thing will probbably be a poison pill, and I think
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:17 PM
Sep 2013

the peace offer may have made bombing more likely, because if there are serious negotiations that fall apart because of russian or syrian bad faith then Obama pretty much has to strike even if Congress does not pass the resolution.

But I think it is still worth the effort.

 

JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
5. Interesting "fear."
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:19 PM
Sep 2013

Oh god, I hope no one ever makes the precious wonderful nuclear weapons of the totally peaceful Israeli state into an issue!

Anyway, there is zero chance of your fear. Fucked up powermongering killer Assad may be, but highly pragmatic, and before this uprising he'd always had his arrangements with the Israelis.

MADem

(135,425 posts)
2. We are talking about Putin telling his client state, Syria, what to do.
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:14 PM
Sep 2013

al-Assad is in Putin's debt for many billions, and he needs the arms and ammo that Putin gives him. Al-Assad is a dead man if Putin drops him like a bad habit.

If we're talking about nothing, that's only because Putin isn't dealing honestly. Syria isn't going to cross the Pootster.

By the same token, Pootie needs Syria for a deepwater port with access to the Med.

Lebanon is just too unreliable these days.

 

JackRiddler

(24,979 posts)
3. Fact: This is also true of the United States
Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:17 PM
Sep 2013

And it would have even greater good effects, both for Americans and everyone else in the world.

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