Pssssssssssssst will Red State Tropical Storm Karen mash up the ReTHUG

[malaise]

dolly 'House of terror'.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
WInd shear is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The lack of wind shear on Tuesday and Wednesday should allow 97L to moisten the atmosphere and wall off the dry air to its northwest that is slowing down development, and I expect 97L will be close to tropical depression status by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 4 - 8" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier and wind shear will increase as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and these combined effects will likely retard development. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle, while the European model is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. Neither model shows 97L developing tropical storm-force winds. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 30%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 40% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, a 10% chance it will be stronger, and a 50% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/97l-growing-more-organized-in-western-caribbean#ZfmdRJWsmeH6jXOO.99

[Motown_Johnny]

1. You almost had me wishing for a Hurricane

but I just can't do it.

[malaise]

2. No we can't wish for even a Tropical Storm because over 5,000 workers have been sent home

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/government-shutdown-affects-weather-climate-programs-16553
<snip>
With the federal government shut down for the first time in 17 years, many of the nation’s weather forecasters remain at work, but longer-term climate research is taking a hit. According to Commerce Department documents, 6,601 of the 12,001 employees of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) -- or 55 percent of the agency's workforce -- have been sent home without pay. That leaves 5,400 “excepted” from the shutdown, mainly because they are needed for the protection of life and property.

NOAA and NASA satellites will continue operating during the government shutdown, but the public may have trouble accessing images as websites are not maintained.
Credit: NASA.

In particular, the National Weather Service will continue operating its network of 122 local forecast offices to provide weather forecasts, watches, and warnings, and NOAA will also continue to operate its weather and climate computer models, as well as satellite data feeds to ensure that forecasters have uninterrupted access to weather information.

“We are restricted to 'mission critical' duties. We aren't allowed to engage the public in outreach activities (such as spotter talks or school talks), and we're supposed to only include forecast-critical information on Facebook and Twitter accounts," the meteorologist told Climate Central, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media about the shutdown. "Only emergency equipment maintenance is allowed, which means that routine maintenance is not. This will hamstring us in the future, either when the shutdown is lifted and the rush of delayed work hits or when equipment breaks because it is not being maintained properly,” the meteorologist said.

[Motown_Johnny]

3. Yes, but the political impact on the red Florida panhandle

could benefit (D)s in the long run.


Not that I am wishing for a hurricane, but you must admit... there is a certain poetic justice to FEMA being needed in an important swing state while the (R)s have forced a shutdown over an issue they can't win.

Even a Teabagger could figure it out.

[malaise]

4. Well Friday is coming

Only Karen will decide - I will certainly be following this one

[malaise]

5. Models so far

[Motown_Johnny]

6. Damn, right through the heart of the South.

There was Sandy, right before the election and the last two Republican conventions were both impacted by hurricanes. Now this.. and all of them since Katrina.


I'm not a believer but if this continues I may have second thoughts.

[malaise]

7. Here she comes

[Motown_Johnny]

8. Looks like it will be Category 1 by tomorrow.

Just a shameless kick for the night crew. We should have more than just the 2 of us on this (not that I don't love chatting with you).