2010 midterm voter turnout: Who gets the blame? Independents

[neverforget]

Apparently, it's gospel by some here that is was liberals who didn't turn out in 2010. If only liberals had turned out, the story goes, we wouldn't have this Tea Party Congress. If only that were true. Instead, it was the middle of the road types who gave us these assholes.

We turned out alright. Democrats turned out 36-36 for Republicans. We lost the election in 2 key spots: women and Independents. Democrats won women 49-48 percent and lost Independents 55-39. That's a drubbing. In the 2006 mid terms, Democrats won Independents 59-37. See the difference? The so-called "swing voters" are who decide elections.

So please, quit blaming Liberals for losing 2010. The Democrats lost Independents big time and that's why we are in this shitty situation. Independents. Not liberals.

2010

2006

The Republicans relied on differential turnout. Among Tuesday's voters, 46 percent voted for Obama in 2008, 45 percent for John McCain -- an election Obama won by 53-45 percent. Thirteen percent of Obama voters defected to Republicans for Congress, while 8 percent of McCain voters favored Democrats. And among other voters -- the 8 percent who either didn't vote, or voted for someone else, in 2008 -- Republicans won by 57-36 percent.

GOP candidates scored better than they have in decades among some key demographic groups. Consider:

Women voted 49-48 percent for Democratic vs. Republican House candidate -- the best for Republicans among women in national House vote in exit polls since 1982. Obama won women by 13 points in 2008.

Democrats and Republicans were at parity in self-identification nationally, 36-36 percent, a return to the close division seen in years before 2008, when it broke dramatically in the Democrats' favor, 40-33 percent.

Swing-voting independents who, as usual, made the difference, favored Republicans for House by a thumping 16 points, 55-39 percent. Compare that to Obama's 8-point win among independents in 2008. It was the Republicans' biggest win among independents in exit polls dating to 1982 (by two points. The GOP won independents by 14 points in 1994, the last time they took control of the House.)

Sixty percent of whites backed Republican House candidates, the most in exit polls dating back to 1982. (In presidential rather than House vote Ronald Reagan won more whites in 1984).

Conservatives accounted for 41 percent of voters -- a high in recent exit polls exceeded, in available data, only by 43 percent in that Reagan re-election of 1984.

[leftstreet]

1. Why couldn't the Democrats draw out Independents?

[neverforget]

3. Messaging I guess? The Koch funded Tea Party drummed up fear and anger at the

Democrats. Also, the economy wasn't that good back then either. It was just starting to recover so it's easy to blame the party in power which was the Democrats at the time.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. Believe me, I fuckin' tried, phone banking for Feingold.

I could tell it was going badly long before the election, just based on the responses I was getting.

[chill_wind]

22. TARP, Unemployment- the economy

The Jobless Effect and frustration with both parties (2010) Perceptions they had about what they felt were misplaced priorities at the time.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1412224

The Jobless Effect: Unemployment Is Fueling Independent Voters' Anger
by Pallavi Gogoi Jul 20th 2010 7:05AM

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/07/20/unemployment-fuels-independent-voters-anger/

[NightWatcher]

2. it's not turnout, it's gerrymandered districts. Most of the teaheads couldn't be touched

There are too many safe seats for the teaheads due to heavily gerrymandered districts.

[neverforget]

4. The districts are gerrymandered really bad now but in 2010, it wasn't nearly this bad.

The Democrats had a majority in the House and Senate then. The Congress now is a result of gerrymadered districts after the 2010 elections. If those districts weren't so bad, Democrats would probably control the House right now after the 2012 elections.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. That's correct.

Voter apathy, driven by a perceived failure of the Admin & the Dems to deliver on the promise of hope, did us in.

It is useless to point out whatever it is that the Dems actually accomplished. The people didn't see it, didn't feel it, didn't know about it on a gut level, and reacted in kind. Maybe it was a messaging problem. Maybe it was a delivery problem. My personal sense is that it was both.

[neverforget]

7. I agree. it was a messaging problem. Whatever it was (I don't remember), it was drowned out

by the Republicans message: Obama bad, everything sucks, it's his fault, etc. Of course, that message hasn't changed since then.

[Jackpine Radical]

8. The negative message carried more weight than it should have because

there was no counterbalancing, coherent positive message. Ignoring the bias of the media, even if they had wanted to carry a different story, there was no well-formed positive signal to carry.

[TheKentuckian]

9. Those pushing the meme will keep on keeping on because they have to.

If they admit the truth it strikes at the very heart of their broader politics and ideology, that all of the scrambling to the right must be done to secure independent voters.

By the same token they can't deal with the typical decline in the minority vote either nor admit that their bullshit policies and namby pamby opposition to corporate dominance and even the TeaPubliKlans they are screeching about that they up until this late stage they have ever sought to "meet in the middle" with made the youth vote give a collective gas face.

They aren't going to take any responsibility or change because it is against their root ideology which is corporate, globalist, and seems rooted in appeasement of TeaPubliKlans and assimilating the secular portion of their beliefs.

They just cannot admit that their "strategy" is beyond a dud. How could they reconcile that their planks all supposedly have to be in place to attract independents repels them? They won't or their phony ideology undergoes existence failure.

I have little doubt that if they are beat about the noggin with the facts relentlessly they will espouse that corporate conservatism is just too "leftwing" for most Americans and declare the party must move right to capture those voters.

These folks are like the TeaPubliKlans on tax cuts because they also support the ruling class above the people.
It is probably the best to consider these folks as the secular wing of the Republican party who sport the big D as a part of a constant effort to frame the country to the right.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

10. I missed this the first go 'round...

kicking.

[neverforget]

12. Thanks. I see that a certain thread is promoting it's the Left's fault for 2010.

Just some more hippy punching.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023770634

[Rex]

14. There are a few of those floating around in GD.

Puked out at pretty regular intervals today and yesterday. The same people always rec them, we have a group here that hate liberals as much as the GOP does.

Go figure.

[neverforget]

21. Yeah funny how they are still around too

[WorseBeforeBetter]

17. That thread brought me here...

and I appreciate you putting up the numbers. Although the willfully ignorant/those with an agenda will continue to bash the nasty ol' left. Well, not all of the left, just the too far left, whatever the hell that is. Seems some are still holding a grudge from 2008 "name-calling." The same some who are quick to allege "racism" at any criticism of Obama. They're truly pieces of work... and make DU suck.

[neverforget]

26. I'm tired of hearing the "left didn't vote". It pisses me off. We voted and those pedaling that

myth are lying or are ignorant of the facts.

[treestar]

11. If that is the case, then it wasn't because Obama was not "progressive enough."

Which is likely the reality.

I just remember the posts here saying they were going to stay home in 2010, not going to donate or campaign, because they were so disappointed.

[neverforget]

13. What you remember and what the facts are are 2 different things.

We lost independents and barely won women. We need independents to win elections just like the Republicans do.

[Union Scribe]

16. So which is it?

You recced that pile of lies. Now you've seen the facts. Are you still going to deny reality?

[JHB]

24. Yes, I remember people saying heated things on an anonymous internet message board too.

How many actually did that? Were the numbers enough to swing the elections?
What's the ratio of loss due to hands-sitting disappointed people vs. the lack of high-profile national coat tails?

[myrna minx]

15. Thank you. This myth that's peddled is truly insulting especially

when it's the base liberals who are usually the volunteers, phone bankers, door knockers and people to drive the elderly to the polls. Yet, time and time again we're both blamed for all the woes of the party's lost elections as well as dismissed as irrelevant.


We had a nice few hours of unity today. I was kind of nice, but then hippie punching had to commence. *Sigh* Thanks for posting.

[neverforget]

19. It's infuriating that the Left gets blamed when the facts prove otherwise.

It must be more fun to hippy punch than to accept the facts.

[myrna minx]

23. It's too bad this thread didn't get more exposure. I've bookmarked it

for future reference for when this popular false myth is inevitably flung out there again and again. Thanks again for putting it together.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Kick and recommend

[scarletwoman]

20. Kick - sorry I missed this yesterday. Glad to find it now. (nt)

[KG]

25. fuck liberals and lefties. the dem party doesn't need 'em to win elections. obviously.