GOP Moderates Plot Revolt, End to Government Shutdown

[Tony_FLADEM]

As the shutdown stretches on, a bloc of moderate House Republicans could be the key to reopening government.

On Wednesday, Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, held meetings with groups of “pragmatist” lawmakers — as Michael G. Grimm, R-N.Y., described them — who want to pass a policy-rider-free continuing resolution and end the government shutdown as soon as possible.

Grimm said the group was “spit-balling some ideas” on how to pass a CR that would fund the entire government, but he indicated that any plan would probably require a number of centrists to join Democrats in voting down a routine procedural motion in an attempt to seize control of the debate and the House floor.

Grimm also expressed support for wrapping negotiations over the debt limit, sequester and the CR into one.

“I do feel we’re moving in the right direction, but for me, it can’t be fast enough,” Grimm said.

It isn’t fast enough for Rep. Peter T. King, R-N.Y., who was one of the most vocal House Republicans criticizing the party’s strategy as the government headed to a shutdown.

King wasn’t invited to any of Boehner’s moderate meetings Wednesday, so he held his own.

King said he met in his office with roughly 10 members who support a clean CR, and they discussed “what the strategy would be.”

“Everyone wants a clean CR, some just have different timelines” for action, King said.

But King said ultimately Republicans were going to agree to a clean CR.

“It would probably make it easier if we can show that we defeated Obamacare, even if we didn’t,” King said.

http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/gop-moderates-plot-revolt-end-to-government-shutdown/

[cali]

1. Grimm voted with the teathuglican majority

now he's worried about his seat.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. This is an interesting development.

[KamaAina]

3. “It would probably make it easier if we can show that we defeated Obamacare, even if we didn’t,”

Classic!

[HooptieWagon]

29. The easy solution....

Have Congress vote to change the name from Obamacare to Romneycare. Republicans can claim they defeated Obamacare, can take credit for passing "their" healthcare act. Their stupid voters won't know any better, and I doubt Obama would give a shit. And we can ROFL at conservative stupidity.

[KamaAina]

32. Indeed they won't.

Late night host Jimmy Kimmel took to the streets to ask the people the burning question of the moment, "Which do you like better, the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?"

Most of them preferred* the Affordable Care Act. One summed it up by saying, "It's all in the name, dude!"



*-Protip: They're the same thing.

[tblue37]

4. What in the hell does that last stupid comment by King even MEAN? nt

[Uncle Joe]

7. It means they're looking for a fig leaf. n/t

[BlueStreak]

5. Prediction: Obama will give those "moderates" a significant victory

which will be tied to both a clean CR and a substantial extension to the debt limit. Basically Obama will do the "You Get Nothing !!!" stance to the Cruz crowd, but offer some nice carrots as an incentive for the moderates to force Boehner's hand. There are some things that Obama is probably willing to do that the King faction would consider significant "gets".

This accomplishes several things:

1) It keeps Bohner in office, which is far preferable to having a teabagger as speaker.

2) It ensures that the GOP civil war will continue through the 2014 election cycle.

3) It doesn't destroy Cruz. It just makes him fringier, but still puts him into position to make a run as the GOP candidate in 2016, which is the perfect scenario of us.

I only mention this so that people here can understand what is happening as this plays out. So everybody, don't go ape shit when Obama offers some concessions. He will offer something. But if his offer goes to the so-called "moderates" and not to the teabaggers, that is the key.

[Cali_Democrat]

8. So what concessions will Obama offer?

Please do tell...

[BlueStreak]

14. Some symbolic tax cuts for businesses, for example

Obama has offered this in each of the SoU speeches. This would be a good time to play that out. Three is a lot of room for good-sounding things that wouldn't necessarily be ruinous to the nation. Hopefully he has learned enough not to put a bunch of stuff on the table too early. But it is important to peel the so-called "moderate" Republicans away from the teabaggers.

[Cali_Democrat]

17. Really? He's going to offer that? Link?

Or did you just pull that out of your ass?

[BlueStreak]

21. Do you have any idea what the word "prediction" means?

[Old and In the Way]

27. sounds plausible to me.

Obama gets horsetrading...it's a shitty, but necessary part of politics. Sacrafice some low ground, to keep the high ground.

[bhikkhu]

30. A cut in corporate tax rates has been suggested:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/30/us-usa-obama-idUSBRE96T0F820130730

The corporate tax cut is one that the repugs could hail as a "victory", or as a major concession. If you read the fine print, however, its actually a tax increase. Few corporations (and none of the largest) actually pay the going rate. The fine print would close enough loopholes to be an effective increase, which is a very good thing. I know we got a corporate tax hike passed this year, but the thing is so full of holes as to be practically meaningless.

If he wanted to give them that and let them crow about it, that's fine with me.

[BlueStreak]

31. Exactly. This is a good time to make that one work.

The biggest corporations will be bitching about how the debt limit screws up the world economy, and they feed off the whole world. They wouldn't be happy about having their favorite deductions curtailed, but why not make them put some skin in the game?

This has the advantages of:

1) being a tax cut, which Republicans always like,

2) helping small businesses, with Republicans say they like, but never do anything to actually help them, and

3) being good public policy, which Democrats like.

[AlinPA]

11. Boehner is all in with the teabaggers so he is no better than any of the others.IMO,the recent bills

that Boehner led are no different than those Louie Gohmert would have led as speaker. They're all crazy.

[BlueStreak]

15. I don't agree. Boehner needs a life line and Obama will give it to him.

But not this week. Obama is OK this week with the launch of the exchanges, although he would have been a lot better off if they weren't such a mess.

The real issue is in about 9 days when discussions get serious about the debt limit. That's when he bails Boehner out.

[AlinPA]

18. Boehner is now leading the crazies. I don't buy into the line that "he lost control of his caucus"

or that he would rather have it another way. Or that he is yielding to the teabaggers. He is the speaker of the house and could get the votes to do the right thing here, but he has chosen to do exactly what he wants to do as a loyal republican and teabagger: shut down the government now , then see to it that the US defaults on it's bonds. IMO a lot of DU'ers have more respect for him than he deserves.

[BlueStreak]

20. He could get the votes, but he could not keep his job.

Strange bedfellows. Obama needs Boehner to keep his job because the alternative is so much worse. And the life line will be this:

Boehner cannot be seen as voluntarily moving away from the crazies. Obama has to engineer the circumstances where Boehner is seen to be under great pressure from the business community to fund the govt and extend the debt ceiling. And the best way to do this is to find a way to embolden a substantial bloc of House Republicans to split from the crazies. Obama can do that by entering into some meaningful dialog (probably behind the scenes, but maybe in-your-face) with King and the others. With that in place, Boehner can "reluctantly" go along, which should be enough for him to keep his job.

[Old and In the Way]

28. i like your ama,ysis.

I'll be keeping an eye out for your comments here. :cheers:

[grantcart]

12. My prediction: No face saving gesture of any kind.

Possibly a nod to future negotiations for a 'grand bargain' but for this and the debt level ceiling he is going to hold for no gestures whatsoever.

Last time out he picked Boehner's pockets and Boehner proclaimed "I got everything I wanted" which only provided an incentive to do it again.

If Boehner had said "We got some and they got some" he might be seen as trustworthy but because of his comments from the previous time he knows that Boehner will only up the ante if he has even a thin thin reed of face saving.

The President knows that the stock market will start a major sell of and this will cause Boehner to fold. This week or next Boehner has to fold and better to take him down now than encourage him again.

Could be wrong we will so who is right when the dust settles.

[BlueStreak]

22. I think we both agree there will be a gesture

The question is how substantial of a gesture will it be. My view is that it will have to be something beyond perfunctory. But it doesn't have to be a give-away. It could be a small version of the "grand bargain" that Obama was already talking up in the first place. There has to be some element of quid pro quo for both sides to be able to sell it.

I think we can all agree there shouldn't be an inch of movement on anything related to the ACA -- not even that medical devices tax. That would amount to rewarding hostage-takers. I don't think the King group is dead set on claiming an ACA win.

[grantcart]

24. Actually this time I am thinking no face saving jesture of any kind.

Everyone, McConnell, Reid, Pelosi, Obama all have a common cause: make sure it never happens again.

Also it would be the best thing for Boehner in the long run. Actual boundaries.

But then again I am usually wrong about my predictions, lol.

[winter is coming]

25. He doesn't need to give them anything. The fact that they're scrambling to

end a shutdown that's barely begun is a hint that the Republicans are desperate and that the teahadists are falling out of favor.

[LTR]

33. Wheeling and dealing worked very well for LBJ

He was probably the best at it. Thanks to his horse trading, he actually got racist southern Dems to vote for the Civil Rights Act. And he got conservatives behind Medicare. Making deals is how things get done in D.C.

[BlueStreak]

34. Right. And LBJ knew which buttons to push and when

There is no point trying to do anything with the teabaggers. You can't deal with them, and even if you could, you never want top reward terrorists. So you look for opportunities to undermine their position, and you pounce on those.

This is exactly the position that is shaping up with:

- the debt extension being a legitimate crisis

- and recognized as such by a substantial number of Republicans that are not insane.

Remember there are only about 80 teabaggers in the House, but they have everybody else in their party bullied. That is 152 cowards huddling in the corner. And out of that bunch there are apparently only 25 who are ready to stand up to the bullies. But that is enough. If Obama deals with 25 Republicans, he won't have to give up as much as he would trying to deal with 100 of them.

And this doesn't have to be some huge give that is national in scope and long term. If he follows LBJ's example, he will pick them off one at a time with some tasty nuggets for their districts.

Let's see what Obama has learned in 5 years.

[Jefferson23]

6. lol, they're smart enough to know they could lose their seats. EAT it, losers.

You could have spoken out sooner, and louder..now take what you can while
trying to save yourselves.

[Mass]

9. Not yet. They just voted against bringing such a bill on the floor.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/house-gop-blocks-vote-on-reopening-government

[Rex]

10. Get busy! We are all waiting on you.

Try and contain the crazies in your party. In the meantime, if you want to ever be elected again...I suggest you guys stay away from children's books...they seem to have a bad affect on people.

[cui bono]

13. Especially when reading from them shows your lack of understanding a moral meant for a first grader.

[pinboy3niner]

16. Take a page from Bush, declare 'Mission Accomplished' and move on

It doesn't matter that you didn't accomplish your mission--it only matters that you SAY you did.

[bluestate10]

19. I will believe them when they fucking do it. Until then, they are one with their destructive party.

At every critical turn, all except two voted with teabaggers.

[markpkessinger]

23. Pffff! "Moderates" . . .

There are no moderates in today's GOP. There is the hard right faction, and the radical lunatic faction. That's it.

[BlueToTheBone]

26. “It would probably make it easier if we can show that we defeated Obamacare, even if we didn’t,” Kin

That is so f*ked