PPP--"GOP could lose the House in 2014"

[ProSense]

PPP--"GOP could lose the House in 2014"

by science

Public Policy Polling has just surveyed 24 House districts currently occupying by Republicans. In 17 of them, a generic Democratic candidate is ahead, in 4, a generic Democrat is ahead when the respondent is told the Republican supported the shutdown, and in only 3 is the Republican ahead.

To: Interested Parties
From: Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling
Re: 24 New Polls show GOP in grave danger of losing House in wake of government shutdown.

If the 2014 elections were held today, Republicans would be in grave danger of losing control of the House of Representatives, according to a series of 24 surveys conducted by Public Policy Polling in Republican-held House districts over the past few days. The surveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats. The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown. Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win control of the House. These poll results makeclear that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be well within reach.

Details are at http://www.scribd.com/doc/173826158/GOP-could-lose-the-House-in-2014

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/06/1244587/-PPP-GOP-could-lose-the-House-in-2014

President Obama slams Republicans: "I won't pay a ransom in exchange for reopening the government"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023789988

Poll Indicates GOP Has Been Deeply Damaged By Shutdown Fight
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023758198

Republican shutdown is not playing well in Peoria. Or Kansas City. Or Sacramento. Or ...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023767797

[ProSense]

1. Kick! n/t

[Eleanors38]

2. the ONE issue "generic" Democrats should avoid:

[Chan790]

4. is what?

That seems like half a post unless I missed something.

"the ONE issue "generic" Democrats should avoid:"

[AgingAmerican]

8. They should avoid

Talking about the last episode of Breaking Bad? Your guess is as good as mine.

[lastlib]

18. (given Eleanors38's posting proclivities, I would guess.....:

...gun safety.)

[eqfan592]

32. Not "gun safety" but so-called "gun control" has been a poison pill issue for some time now.

Especially because some folks idea of "common sense" gun control means "measure that have no hope whatsoever of ever preventing a single crime anywhere at any time, but do serve to piss off a lot of people." But that's neither here nor there. The important thing is to try and make sure to beat the repukes over the head without giving them something to beat US over the head with.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Despite gerrymandering, there are still some swing Districts left

particularly here in PA where there are some teabagger Congress members but surrounding the cities of Philadelphia & Pittsburgh, there are moderates in seats in districts that are purplish and had Democrats in 2006 & 2008 (which reflected a demographic change). Those are the ones who have been publicly making some noises about their intentions for a "clean CR", although they continue to lockstep with the crazies when the rubber meets the road. And as long as they do that, they should be targeted big time.

[AgingAmerican]

10. gerrymandering is killing the GOP

Those elected in gerrymandered districts are beholden to the looniest of the loony. Those loonies hold their party hostage. This drives their whole party off the cliff. This whole debacle is a big ass kiss to the tea party.

[ShadowLiberal]

20. That's because the GOP is spread thin in PA

You're right that the GOP congressmen around Philadelphia could be vunlerable, they still have somewhat of a built in advantage from gerrymandering, but if you gerrymander so badly to grab 2/3's of the districts in a purple state leaning blue, you leave multiple districts open to being grabbed by the other party in a wave year.

I'm not sure about the rest of the state (I live near Philadelphia), but Philadelphia area Republican congressmen were deathly afraid of Corbett's electoral vote rigging scheme costing them their seats.

[Blanks]

5. I was glad to read this:

The surveys challenge the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering has put the House out of reach for Democrats.

That's what I've been saying. Now we just have to GOTV.

[tanyev]

6. Please proceed, GOP.

[AtomicKitten]

7. It would be nothing short of a miracle considering the gerrymandering.

But I believe the GOP may have enabled that miracle with the shutdown.

[progressoid]

9. Some super duper rose colored glasses there.

The districts where a generic Democratic challenger leads prior to any information being provided about the shutdown are:

CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07,MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07

I don't know about the other districts but I don't see a generic Dem winning in IA-04. There is too much red and hatred for Dems in that district.

IA-03 might happen, but it would have to be a helluva good generic Dem.

[SunSeeker]

11. K & R

[lonestarnot]

12. Could lose? Lose what, they're intention is to fuck the U.S. before they get the lose.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

13. "the conventional wisdom" around the Belway has been proven false repeatedly....

Hell, they claimed Democrats couldn't win on National Defense (As if McCain singing "bomb bomb bomb Iran" made him the next Churchill) and then they claimed "No President has ever won reelection with high unemployment" (Ignoring FDR).

"Conventional wisdom" assumes the whole Red vs Blue thing and hard headed party loyalty has been going on forever.

I always point out California. It was a Republican stronghold before Republicans went insane.

[Dawson Leery]

14. Possible.

[brooklynite]

15. Not getting myself worked up about this...

The polling is based on "generic" Democrats. I think it shows growing displeasure with the Republican incumbents, but untilI. See that ACTUAL Democrats are beating actual Republicans, I'm going to focus on protecting and expanding our Senate lead.

[ProSense]

16. When combined

"The polling is based on "generic" Democrats. I think it shows growing displeasure with the Republican incumbents, but untilI. See that ACTUAL Democrats are beating actual Republicans, I'm going to focus on protecting and expanding our Senate lead."

...with the reality of the moment, it's definitely time to turn up the heat on Republicans.

Cuccinelli is for a clean CR. So, sure, the House GOPs are winning. LOL
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023783986

Republican Congressman Says GOP To Blame For Shutdown
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023794571

[Cha]

17. K&R!

[Uncle Joe]

19. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, ProSense.

[B Calm]

21. Well we tried to tell them, lol!

[Rex]

22. Not could, will lose.

nt.

[ShadowLiberal]

23. While this is great news, the #'s could easily change by the time the shutdown ends

It's great that the GOP seems to be hurt here, but I wouldn't put much stock in these polls for a few reasons.

1) The shutdown is a constantly changing situation, depending on how it ends, these numbers could easily change quite a bit, either way.

2) There's also the debt ceiling and how that gets resolved that could effect those numbers a lot.

3) It's still 13 months until the elections, lots more could happen in that time.

A better indicator possibly might be the Virginia governor race in a month, since both sides are apparently blaming the others governor candidate for the shutdown (even though neither one have a federal job), and Virginia is being effected more harshly then almost any state by shutdown (over 175,000 people are furloughed there).

[judesedit]

24. For the sake of this country & its people, I pray they do.Get rid of the electoral college so redist

istricting won't matter. One person one vote. The only fair way.

[florida08]

25. well don't we first need a candidate

Haven't see anyone willing to run agains Toyo in my district.

spelling correction

[gopiscrap]

26. God, I hope they're right

[Peacetrain]

27. Oh what a happy day that would be

[AnotherMcIntosh]

28. Will Obama's TPP save them? Or will they be lookng for jobs in his Administration?

[blkmusclmachine]

29. So what, if nobody but the 1% has food or anything else???

[Tarheel_Dem]

30. Bloomberg-Oct. 7, 2013: "Obama Regains Lost Approval: Gallup"

By Mark Silva

Could the president be winning the short-term blame game?

Three days into the partial government shutdown, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating slid to 41 percent in the Gallup Poll’s daily tracking.

Today, one week in, he’s back up to 45 percent.

It’s hardly an affirmation of his position in the ongoing dispute with Congress — his disapproval rating still stands at 49 percent.

And the three-day averages of polling surveying 1,500 adults carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Yet neither did the slide recorded last week turn into a dive over the weekend, the latest surveys taken Oct. 4-6.

http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-10-07/obama-regains-lost-approval-gallup/

[Laelth]

31. I am not counting these chickens until they hatch. n/t

-Laelth

[AustinActivist435]

33. The GOP is Toast

The GOP will be dead by 2050.