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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBettors’ verdict: GOP could lose the House
Bettors verdict: GOP could lose the HouseBetting market shows how much the shutdown standoff hurt Republicans. -WSJ Marketwatch
Next years midterm elections for Congress are now a tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats, according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets the only sportsbook in America allowed to bet on U.S. elections.
Nancy Pelosis chances of leading the Democrats to a House majority have more than doubled in less than a month to about 50% as a result of the government-shutdown fiasco, according to betting on the exchange.
And the Republicans, who appeared to have a lock on the elections just a few weeks ago, have seen their chances collapse at the same time.
Back in September, oddsmakers gave the Republicans a one-in-four chance of gaining seats, improving their overall control of the lower house. Thats now down to one-in-twenty. (The numbers sometimes dont add up to 100% because of trading spreads.)
It all started to change when Ted Cruz stood up in the Senate and started reading Green Eggs and Ham. Then came the shutdown, the threat over the debt ceiling and the pitiful last-minute cave.
Betting markets can be a useful tool in trying to predict the outcome of future elections. They have a reasonable track record, though it gets much better the closer you are to the elections. There is a year to go before the 2014 midterms. And the districting in the House should give the GOP a cushion too. The Democrats will need to beat the GOP hands-down to take a lot of seats off them.
..................more
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bettors-verdict-gop-will-lose-the-house-2013-10-18?reflink=MW_news_stmp
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Bettors’ verdict: GOP could lose the House (Original Post)
ErikJ
Oct 2013
OP
Yeah. People like "their guy." It's the rest of those bums who have to go.
Gidney N Cloyd
Oct 2013
#2
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)1. Ultimately, the House races must be analyzed on an individual basis. n/t
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,847 posts)2. Yeah. People like "their guy." It's the rest of those bums who have to go.
cthulu2016
(10,960 posts)3. That is not correct
That may well apply to the Senate, but the House is highly subject to wave elections driven by national perceptions of parties.
1974, 1980, 1994, 2006, 2010... House elections behave more like parliamentary elections then an aggregate of personality face-offs.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)4. Not in W. PA. Kelly, Shuster, Murphy, Rothfus are teabaggers in teabagger country.