I think the era of landslide presidential electoral victories is over.

[PlanetaryOrbit]

The 20th century saw some extremely lopsided presidential landslide contests, such as FDR's crushing victory over Landon in 1936, Nixon's 1972 landslide win over McGovern, and the 1984 landslide win by Reagan over Mondale.


But I think the era of 40-state or 400-electoral vote landslide election victories is over. I think the future of U.S. presidential elections will hold several things in store:


1. The Democrats will win most presidential elections from here on. The main reason for this is demographics. As racial minorities continue to grow in population in America - Hispanics, etc., the Democrats will simply accumulate even more and more of an electoral advantage.

2. The Democratic candidate will win by only a relatively modest margin each time. Why? Several reasons.

First, because the problems facing the United States - national debt, economy, etc. - are so severe that we may never have a really popular incumbent president again. I do not think great prosperity will really return to the United States again. Therefore, no matter who is elected, he or she will probably not be very popular during his or her presidency.

Secondly, because people get tired of having the same party being in power for a long time. Doesn't matter if one party does a great job for 12 or 16 years; eventually people will want some variety. So even if the Democrats win most presidential elections, some voters, especially independents, may vote for the Republican candidate just for the sake of electing someone different.

Finally, because the United States is now so bitterly divided along red-blue, conservative-liberal lines. In the past, I think many Republicans were willing to vote for FDR in 1936 and many Democrats were willing to vote for Reagan in 1984. But these days, I think the electorate is so entrenched that no candidate will be able to persuade enormous numbers of voters from the opposing side to vote for him or her in such a way that will get a landslide victory.

[monmouth3]

1. #2...The "Democratic" candidate. I know it's a small thing but it matters and

welcome to DU. Good post..

[LuvNewcastle]

2. I don't think our economic problems are getting any better for the long haul.

I think they've just begun. The government hasn't fixed any of the problems that led to the crisis in the first place. It's just a matter of time before it happens again, and I don't think it will be much longer before it happens. Whichever party is credited with bringing us out of it will be the party that enjoys a decades-long majority like the Democrats enjoyed during and after the Depression.

[nyquil_man]

3. This is a period of more closely contested elections.

I wouldn't argue that it's a permanent state of affairs, though. The average margin of victory in all presidential elections since 1856 is 9.6 points. We've now seen seven elections in a row where the margin was less than that. The average since 1988 has been 5.1.

The only other period with so many below average margins occurring consecutively is the era from 1876 to 1900. There, the average was 2.6 points. However, the seven elections which followed that period (1904-1928) had an average margin of 16.3 points. With one exception (1916), the results were pretty unambiguous.

Electorates are not set in stone. New voters enter, old voters exit, and loyalties shift, sometimes dramatically.

[MFM008]

4. depends

cantidates.... Run Cruz or Palin again see a democrat landslide.

[Dawson Leery]

8. +1

[adavid]

5. "The Democratic candidate will win by only a relatively modest margin each time"

The biggest reason for that, is because we dont have compulsory voting

[Ron Green]

6. It's always gonna be a corporate candidate...

...by a landslide.

[Fumesucker]

7. I think you are neglecting the role of the sensible pragmatic moderate centrists

The SPMCs know that halfway between Democratic and Republican policy is the "sweet spot" that's just makes so much pragmatic moderate sense, they therefore tend to oscillate back and forth between being Clinton Democrats and Reagan Democrats, always of course taking time to punch some hippies during the interregnum.