NYT/CBS News poll: Obama Approval Rating Shows Serious Slip in New Poll

[ProSense]

Obama Approval Rating Shows Serious Slip in New Poll

By JIM RUTENBERG and MARJORIE CONNELLY
Published: March 12, 2012

At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.

The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.

<...>

In a hypothetical matchup against his most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama had a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage, a statistical dead heat given the poll’s margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Against Rick Santorum, the president held a slight advantage, winning 48 percent to 44 percent. In both cases, Mr. Obama’s lead was down slightly from last month.

<...>

Mr. Obama appears to be retaining much of his gains among important demographic groups, erasing inroads that Republicans made in 2010, especially among women. But his falling approval rating in the last month extended to his handling of both the economy and foreign policy, the poll found. And his weakening position cut across all major demographic groups, even among those with which he has kept an edge over his Republican challengers: women, independents, moderates, college graduates and younger voters.

- more -

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/politics/obama-approval-rating-down-in-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

So gas prices caused a nine- point drop from last month? I did notice that the disapproval went up four point, but the "don't know" went up five points.

Still, that's not the main reason I'm find this poll suspect. It seems the sample might be more conservative than in the past: only 40 percent believe employers insurance plans should cover birth control? (This is opposite of WaPo, which found more than 60 percent support.)

Another, Americans want war with Iran?



http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395830-503544/poll-most-support-u.s-military-action-to-stop-iran-from-getting-nuclear-weapons/

More charts from CBS:



http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395703-503544/poll-obamas-approval-rating-sinks-to-new-low/



http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57395717-503544/poll-romney-santorum-narrow-gap-on-obama/

[Cali_Democrat]

1. 2 things Obama can do to ensure reelection:

1) Take the military option completely off the table when it comes to Iran. This will help gas prices as the specter of war recedes.

2) Withdraw all forces from Afghanistan immediately.

[Pisces]

14. It's a good thing the President is not like Romney and knee jerking on every poll. He will continue

to be the steady leader he has been from day one and will win in the end as other self implode trying to chase the polls.

[Cali_Democrat]

15. Obama shouldn't do the two things I mentioned simply because of polling

He should do them because they are the right things to do. It also happens to be that doing those two things I mentioned will also boost his poll numbers.

[Ter]

23. I agree 100%

But I don't think he'll do number 2, and certainly won't do number 1.

[annabanana]

2. You are right to look at this with a jaundiced eye.

We tend to think that if a poll has a CorpoMedia label, that it is not being used to screw the National discourse. Let us not forget how badly skewed the "mainstream" polls have been in the not-to-distant past.

[ProSense]

4. It seems

weird that these polls are attributing such a huge drop to gas prices when nothing much else changed.

I posted this about the WaPo poll:

Since the news outlets are pushing the gas prices angle, the above information is interesting. Basically, Obama prospects are improving in people's opinion, Romney still hasn't closed the deal, economic confidence is rising, the GOP are losing women and independents, Romney just had a couple of horrible weeks, and the poll shows him leading by two, albeit a statistical tie. Given those facts, consider the swing they're attributing to gas prices...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002415762

I also remember this from Dean Baker a few weeks ago.

President Obama Doesn't Just Say We Are Producing More Oil, We Are Producing More Oil

The NYT did some heavy-duty he said/she said reporting on the issue of gas prices and energy production. It devoted an article to President Obama's efforts to counter Republican complaints about high gas prices.

The article told readers:

"The president said that the United States is producing more oil now than at any time during the last eight years, with a record number of rigs pumping."

President Obama did not just say this, it also happens to be true. There are reasons that people may not be happy that the United States is producing more oil (anyone hear of global warming?), but it happens to be true.

The article then went on to tell readers that:

"But Mr. Obama warned that no amount of domestic production could offset the broader forces driving up gas prices, chief among them Middle East instability and the ravenous energy appetite of China, which he said added 10 million cars in 2010."

This is also a statement that can be verified. The United States currently produced around 6 million barrels a day. The world market for oil is a bit less than 90 million barrels a day.

It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. We're going to say that a few more times just in case any reporters are reading this.

It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production. It is the world market that determines prices, not domestic production.

- more -

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/president-obama-doesnt-just-say-we-are-producing-more-oil-we-are-producing-more-oil

[Dawson Leery]

6. There is something wrong with these polls.

[ProSense]

7. Note this

point from the NYT article:

Sharp as the drop in Mr. Obama’s approval rating was in the Times/CBS News poll, it was not in isolation. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, released on Monday, also reported a drop in Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating, to 46 percent from 50 percent last month. The latest tracking poll from Gallup, also released Monday, showed Mr. Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent.

Why is that strange? Gallup showed the President's numbers improving.

Gallup: Obama keeps recent approval gains

By Jonathan Easley

President Obama’s approval rating spiked into positive territory last week, and he’s since managed to build on those gains, according to the latest Gallup three-day rolling average.

Forty-nine percent said they approved of the job the president is doing, while 43 percent said they disapproved, Gallup found.

The positive 6-point margin is Obama’s best since last June, when his approval rating was briefly buoyed by the assassination of Osama bin Laden.

Gallup’s three-day rolling average has been susceptible to dramatic swings this year, which have typically been ironed out within a few days.

But last Wednesday, the president’s favorability swung sharply into positive territory, and rather than falling back to near break even, he’s managed to build on those gains in the days since.

- more -

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/215483-gallup-obama-sustains-recent-gains-in-approval

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. I'm glad that you mentioned the Gallup poll

seems quite at odds with the other "bad news" polls. Gallup usually tends to report pretty soft ratings for President Obama, particularly during the weekend. Something doesn't smell right.........and it's not in the ventilation system.

[dixiegrrrrl]

21. ABC did similar poll, with same message.

Interesting that suddenly MSM is doing polls and then reporting on their own polls.

Here's the link to today's earlier info on the ABC poll.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101473202

[DCBob]

3. Its a bit surprising to see the numbers change that much for no apparent reason.

I suppose its gas prices but somehow that seems hard to believe also. Weird.

[ProSense]

5. It is

"Its a bit surprising to see the numbers change that much for no apparent reason. I suppose its gas prices but somehow that seems hard to believe also. Weird."

...weird. It almost seems that since the economy is improving, Republicans are being handed an issue to continue criticizing the President. The big exception is that the issue is GOP spin.

The support for war with Iran is simply bizarre, especially with Americans demanding an end to the Afghanistan war.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. Iran is the "new kid on the block"

Afghanistan is the old one?

[a kennedy]

12. It's gas, gas, gas, and Iran, Iran, Iran

all the time on faux. I check there to see what's going on, and it's gas, gas, gas, and Iran, Iran, Iran.

[Aerows]

19. Look at it this way

The news business is a business. They have to do things to keep an audience. Ginning up a war, and creating a narrative that gas prices are really an issue helps deflect from the fact that the Republican candidates are abysmal, and that they've shot themselves in the foot with their anti-woman, anti-gay, anti-minority bs.

Republicans are hurting badly, and the media is going to try to buttress them so that there can be some supposed "excitement" to the election that keeps people tuning in.

I don't think they have caught on yet that most people don't think the MSM has the credibility to comment on whether it's actually raining outside or not, much less trust them with discussions as serious as war or gas prices.

[CJCRANE]

8. Strange, I thought he had a boost from the women's vote

going to him.

Methinks someone's been tinkering with the sampling to create a media narrative.

[Dawson Leery]

11. Indeed.

[karynnj]

13. I would suggest that as this is different than all the other recent polls, it is an outlier

That happens - and given the sample size, an outlier can look like a huge change.

Gallup, which has not been the "best" poll for Obama, has a daily tracking poll - today, Obama's approval rating is 49% - up 2% and his disapproval, 43% is down 2%. This is a result that is better than it has been. (This compares to the NYT 41% approval and 47% disapproval.)

One thing that I notice is that 51% favor MILITARY action in Iran. This seems really out of line.

[Aerows]

18. WAY out of line

This is manufactured news, IMHO.

[karynnj]

20. The full results are interesting - and you see big jumps on almost everything

from last time - on the economy and on foreign policy. The economy looks more optimistic (not good, but better than thought last month) and there was nothing big that I can think of that would shift foreign policy as much as here.

Here;s the link - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/13/us/politics/20120313_poll_docs.html?ref=politics

[Aerows]

16. If they don't prop up the GOP

There will be nothing "exciting" about the entire political discussion up until November. Not that there is much exciting about it as it stands.

This poll, and pardon my language, is bullshit. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY that I know on the conservative side of things (and I live in Mississippi, so I know a few) is happy with any of the candidates. They are so demoralized it is actually hilarious.

This "gas prices" thing is the latest attempt to deflect from the fact that the Republicans have torpedoed their own agenda with the blatant anti-woman legislation.

If this poll was real, then that means the only people they asked were white men, because among women and minorities, people are steamed at Republicans. This is manufactured news at best, and I don't give it anymore credence than I would give it if it were posted on World Nut Daily. CBS should be ashamed of themselves.

[Jamaal510]

17. Am I going to have to go around the country & personally punkslap these people?

American voters are so ignorant and fickle...if a president really did have control over gas prices, why would he RAISE them and risk losing support?

[golfguru]

22. This poll is bogus

Must be polling repugs.

[Ter]

24. Always someone saying a poll is wrong, or GOP skewed

Obama is up by three points against Romney. How do you think he will do in November? He might win by a little more, but it sure ain't gonna be more than four or five points. He beat McCain by seven who had a dimwit on his ticket in a heavily, anti-Bush Democratic year inspired by change. The poll is probably right on.

[golfguru]

25. Obama will win easily

The 4 remaining repugs are destroying each other and spending all their money.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

26. Plenty of polls this week show Obama doing well against Romney

The 3-day-old CBS one is an outlier
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/14/1074461/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-President-Obama-either-en-route-to-a-landslide-or-in-a-coin-flip?detail=hide

Add to that, he's up in Gallup's numbers this week.