Infectious disease experts: Why the risk of Ebola entering the US is extremely low.

[pnwmom]

Some people have been wondering if we already have Ebola in the US. Experts say that is extremely unlikely.

http://www.newsweek.com/taxis-planes-and-viruses-how-deadly-ebola-can-spread-262486

The risk of the Ebola virus making its way out of Africa into Europe, Asia or the Americas is extremely low, according to infectious disease specialists, partly due to the severity of the disease and its deadly nature.

Patients are at the most dangerous when Ebola haemorrhagic fever is in its terminal stages, inducing both internal and external bleeding, and profuse vomiting and diarrhoea - all of which contain high concentrations of infectious virus.

Anyone at this stage of the illness is close to death, and probably also too ill to travel, said Bruce Hirsch, an infectious diseases expert at North Shore University Hospital in the United States.

"It is possible, of course, for a person to think he might just be coming down with the flu, and to get onto transport and then develop more critical illness. That's one of the things we are concerned about," he said in a telephone interview.

He added, however: "The risk (of Ebola spreading to Europe or the United States) is not zero, but it is very small."

SNIP

[LiberalElite]

1. Ebola arriving in the U.S.

is probably at the bottom of my list of concerns.

[Strelnikov_]

13. Agree n/t

[NightWatcher]

2. CDC is flying a sick guy into Atlanta (Emory/CDC)

Hope it doesn't break containment

[pnwmom]

3. Some people think that doesn't matter because they assume we already have it here anyway.

But to think that, you have to assume the CDC is lying when they say we don't.

[onehandle]

4. The GOP says that kids coming across our southern border are flooding us with Ebola.

Who am I to believe? Republicans or Medical Specialists?

Let me rephrase that...

Who am I to believe? Garden slugs or Humans?

[d_r]

7. are local newspaper

on facebook the other day had the headline "American infected with Ebola" and there were comments jumping right to "See! Bet they got it from them illegal aliens!"

[Aerows]

16. I'd believe a garden slug

over most of the people in the GOP.

[mike_c]

5. thanks for posting this....

I think it helps people understand the complex epidemiology of "hot" viruses like Ebola. This is all still emerging, I suppose, but so far Ebola looks like a virus that is locally active, but globally slow. Quarantine is likely the most effective measure.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

15. Yeah.

The medical professionals I've seen talk about it seem to think we would have no problem containing ebola if it did come here.

I think people fail to realize the lack of resources even our highly trained volunteer doctors contend with when they work in these areas.

[d_r]

6. unless somebody did it on purpose

[WinkyDink]

8. We know in fact that Ebola will be "entering the US," via Emory U. Where the second vicitim is going

within the US is unknown.

[pnwmom]

9. True. It will be entering in a controlled fashion.

Hopefully there won't be any screw-ups.

But it isn't randomly entering now, because it isn't contagious until people are sick. That's why it's been in Africa for so long but hasn't traveled much elsewhere.

[LisaL]

10. I am sorry, but I think these experts are talking out of their behind.

The incubation period could be as long as 21 days.
During this time, someone could easily fly into US not showing any symptoms.
The American who died from it while in Liberia was actually flying with the symptoms.
He could have presumably even made it back to US if he didn't die.

[pnwmom]

11. Let's hope they aren't.

But I understand and share your concern.

[LisaL]

12. It's rather obvious to me that they are.

Again, incubation period can be as long as 21 days. It gives someone plenty of time to fly over before showing any symptoms.

[Squinch]

23. I agree with you. That incubation period says to me that thousands more already have it

than we know about.

[Chemisse]

30. I agree.

It's hard to believe that it WON'T travel off the African continent. Unless the epidemic dies down soon.

Luckily it is not contagious by air, so if it does come to the US, we can take measures to prevent its spread.

[Squinch]

22. Also, an infected man traveled on a plane to Nigeria. With 54 other people. Nigeria was not

able to contain those 54 other people. It is absolutely reasonable to assume that some of those 54 were sneezed upon, and subsequently boarded other planes to other places. Then they do not show any symptoms for 21 days, during which they are exchanging bodily fluids with all the people they normally exchange bodily fluids with who then exchange their fluids with those THEY usually exchange fluids with...

And so on.

I'm buying canned goods. And staying out of the Lincoln Tunnel.

[muriel_volestrangler]

26. No, I think you haven't understood the basics of the disease

21 days is the absolute limit for symptoms to show:

Symptoms of Ebola HF typically include:

Fever
Headache
Joint and muscle aches
Weakness
Diarrhea
Vomiting
Stomach pain
Lack of appetite
...
Symptoms may appear anywhere from 2 to 21 days after exposure to ebolavirus though 8-10 days is most common.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/symptoms/index.html

Sneezing is not a typical symptom, so it is not "absolutely reasonable to assume that some of those 54 were sneezed upon".

When an infection does occur in humans, there are several ways in which the virus can be transmitted to others. These include:

direct contact with the blood or secretions of an infected person
exposure to objects (such as needles) that have been contaminated with infected secretions

The viruses that cause Ebola HF are often spread through families and friends because they come in close contact with infectious secretions when caring for ill persons.

During outbreaks of Ebola HF, the disease can spread quickly within health care settings (such as a clinic or hospital). Exposure to ebolaviruses can occur in health care settings where hospital staff are not wearing appropriate protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html

The "he could have spread it to 54 different people" model really doesn't apply to this disease. It's not like flu.

[Squinch]

27. Sneezing is not a typical symptom, but it is something people frequently do. Also, they often cough.

Releasing secretions.

I am not saying he could have spread it to 54 people. He could have spread it to one or two sitting near him. Who then get on another plane. And maybe they cough, or spit when they talk, or don't clean the seat when they drip. For 21 days. And it seems that 21 days is not the absolute limit. There are cases where the incubation period was longer than that.

[Chemisse]

31. Also, I read that it is not contagious during the incubation period.

[LisaL]

34. This guy was traveling after already showing symptoms, so he was very much contageous.

[customerserviceguy]

14. Maybe at this point

but what happens when it spreads across all of Africa? See how fast HIV spread across there, and reflect on how much easier it is to get Ebola.

Unless massive resources are rushed to Africa to contain this, it's going to eventually impact the entire world, unless a vaccine can be developed. Maybe all those billions we spent on AIDS research will give us the tools to defeat the spread of this disease. We surely have to have a better understanding of virally-transmitted diseases than we did in 1980.

[longship]

17. Ebola is so deadly, there's not much chance to spread.

That's why spreading to the US or Europe is very low risk. And it is also why transporting two Ebola inflicted US citizens to the CDC is worth the risk, where experts can have them in controlled environments and where a cure or a vaccine may be developed. And the Emory patient will be under CDC control as well.

These people are being brought to the experts who know how to keep things under control. They aren't called the Center for Disease Control for nothing. It's what they do.

People need to relax and stop panicking.

[FourScore]

18. BBC: Growing concerns over 'in the air' transmission of Ebola

15 November 2012 Last updated at 19:50 ET

Growing concerns over 'in the air' transmission of Ebola
By Matt McGrath Science reporter, BBC World Service

Canadian scientists have shown that the deadliest form of the ebola virus could be transmitted by air between species.

In experiments, they demonstrated that the virus was transmitted from pigs to monkeys without any direct contact between them...

...Now, researchers from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the country's Public Health Agency have shown that pigs infected with this form of Ebola can pass the disease on to macaques without any direct contact between the species.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423

[longship]

19. Well, their concern is noted...

but so far Ebola transmits only through bodily fluids. And it would likely take a pretty big mutation for it to be transmissible by air. One also presumes that the epidemiologists at the CDC know what they are doing. It is their expertease and they are likely the best on the planet and know what they are talking about.

Meanwhile, I understand that people are afraid. If I lived in West Africa I certainly would be. But thankfully Ebola is not so easily transmitted and is so deadly that those afflicted are not much of a vector.

[Squinch]

24. Yes, the symptoms kill quickly, but there is a 21 day incubation period.

Doctors without Borders has called it "totally out of control."

[longship]

29. And the world's experts are still moving two people to Atlanta.

One of whom has very recently had an experimental vaccine and the other who has had a different experimental treatment, a transfusion from a Ebola survivor. The CDC (the Center for Disease Control) have been studying Ebola for years, and they are the experts in epidemiology.

It is only proper to move these patients into a controlled environment where the experts can figure this out , and hopefully save their lives, or at least other lives.

[Zorra]

20. At any rate, just keep shopping until you bleed out, or the Dow

is gonna go down 500 points tomorrow.

Disaster Capitalism, Pt II.

[flamingdem]

21. This seems naive

It just takes someone exposed to expose many others. If it's going around in Nigeria, as it may be, all bets are off.

[longship]

32. Well, these patients are being moved in a controlled environment.

And it is being done by the CDC, the Center for Disease Control, who are probably the world's experts in doing this.

Relax, there's no Ebola coming to your home town.

There's too much hair on fire about this.

Ebola is not air transmissible; it requires bodily fluids to transmit. Ebola isn't even contagious until symptoms begin showing. Ebola is so deadly that once symptoms show, the patients do not live long enough to travel. These are not good attributes for a worldwide pandemic.

So relax, and say a prayer for those in West Africa.

[WinkyDink]

25. The English language is a tricky devil, but one thing I know: "extremely unlikely" isn't "never."

It is "extremely unlikely" that:

~~MH370 would simply disappear;
~~the WTC buildings would collapse;
~~Titanic would sink.

AND YET......

[longship]

33. Much special pleading?

Actually the probabilities of your three cited occurrences are 100% as they are all historic fact. Plus, other than MH370, which is a real mystery, there are very few, if any, mysteries about the Titanic and we know exactly how the WTC collapsed.

So your cases are not even analogous.

Plus the Center for Disease Control is moving those patients and they have been studying Ebola since its discovery. They are the world's experts in doing this. It's what they do.

So relax, and please stop with the WTC conspiracy crapola.

Don't panic.

[WinkyDink]

38. I'm not panicking, so don't condescend. And FYI, that something happened has nothing to do with what

people before the fact THOUGHT would or would not happen, so sorry, they are quite possibly analogous.

Or have you already forgotten "No-one could have predicted"?

And FYI, no Ebola patient has ever before been moved to Emory by the CDC or anyone else, so they are NOT "the world's experts in doing this"---no-one is.

BTW: Here's some more food for your proverbial thought:
"An Emory official said that the staff have control over everything coming out of the unit, and that all materials are made non-infectious before any materials come out.
In addition, all disposable items associated with the treatment of the patients will go to a regulated waste stream which is the normal procedure with any patient treated at the facility."
http://www.cbs46.com/story/26166691/emory-hospital-to-receive-ebola-patient-in-atlanta
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now, do you suppose Emory U. has its very own water/sewage treatment plant for its "waste stream"? Do you wonder what those "disposable items" are that might be perfect for a "waste stream"?

I'm above the Mason-Dixon Line, so I'm reading purely for interest.

[notadmblnd]

28. Gee, I hope all the Ebola experts here at DU come and read this.

nt

[longship]

35. Nope, but the world's experts work at the CDC.

The Center for Disease Control, which was founded to wipe malaria out in the USA. They are the world's experts in Ebola, and in epidemiology, in general. Their facilities are second to none. Plus, they are likely moving these two patients because they have both received experimental treatments -- one a vaccine, the other a transfusion -- and it is important to get them in controlled conditions if there is to be any benefit learned from the treatments.

Relax. They are in very good hands. As are we.

[notadmblnd]

36. I wasn't panicking. I was being facetious

Sorry.

[longship]

37. My apologies.

I would like to leave my post up for others viewers in the thread. Some here at DU are panicking a bit.

Best regards.

[WinkyDink]

39. I'm sure that is what the Moroccans thought, too, until today:

http://www.news.heritageliberia.net/index.php/inside-heritage/health/3583-liberian-dies-in-morocco-of-ebola-internal-affairs-minister-discloses

MONROVIA - The Minister of Internal Affairs, Mr. Morris Dukuly, has disclosed that a Liberian has died of the deadly Ebola virus in Morocco.

[WinkyDink]

40. I like the way "diarrhea" is used for "defecating one's melting intestines."

[Earth_First]

41. So many experts. So little time. nt