General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI beleive we will be back at serious war in Iraq, this time against ISIS.
I don't think this should be seen as unexpected. We went into Iraq and created a vacuum. From George's War to now, the Iraqis have demonstrated their remarkable inability to stand on their own. Wishing they would won't make it so.
Meanwhile, for being hands off in Syria, and unable to muster allies willing to act, we now face a very powerful enemy.
I have little doubt ISIS will try an attack on us here in the US. I'm not sure they'll be successful, but that they will try I have no doubt. For all our TSA Security Theater 2000 bullshit, I believe the grownups are very much alert to such plans and plots as may be afoot.
This isn't over. Not by a long shot.
valerief
(53,235 posts)If there were no God, it would have been necessary to invent him."
After all, the rich must get richer, and in the U.S. that's done via war.
orpupilofnature57
(15,472 posts)L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)If all you got is some inside baseball political crap, keep it.
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)Of course, you still failed to make any sort of case apart from the obvious fact you disagree with me.
Hugabear
(10,340 posts)Do you have any solid information that an ISIS attack on American soil is in the works? If not, then you're doing the exact same thing you're dismissing the other poster for.
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)They have many, many members who have western passports and are Western citizens. As such, they have a far better chance of traveling here freely than bin Laden's team did.
They have lots of money. They have a fairly steady, and thus far reliable source of substantial ongoing income by way of smuggling and other criminal undertakings. Money can buy them what they need to carry out an attack.
They have absolutely no hesitation to kill anyone and everyone anywhere.
An attack on US soil is the holy grail for the modern terrorist set.
That would seem to me enough to suspect they are a real threat.
Now, all YOU had to do was ask me. The snarky/scoldy crap ("If not, then you're doing the exact same thing you're dismissing the other poster for. " was really quite unnecessary.
Its responses like yours and that other fellow that makes me want to once again take a sabbatical. No one wants to discuss. Everyone wants to be sarcastic and pugnacious.
GP6971
(31,141 posts)although some statements may be hype, the threat is real. Zealous westerners and Europeans can travel to multiple destinations in Europe and then get "lost" as to their future movements. The fear is these individuals travel to the ME, get trained by ISIL and come in to the US or Europe and train their loyalists to carry out their brand of warfare
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts). . . . . they only need to organize people already here, and clean, to do the actual deed.
And it isn't as if we have one or two renegade citizens. There are LOTS of them.
Hugabear
(10,340 posts)You use snark with someone else, but cry foul when it's done to you?
And yet there have been very few attacks on US soil over the past few decades. It really wouldn't be that hard, yet it just doesn't happen very often.
You have no evidence that terrorists are going to attack, yet you demand evidence from someone else that they won't?
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts). . . . explain how the statement that "An attack on US soil is the holy grail for the modern terrorist set." is snark?
Had I simply worded the same notion differently would you still be calling it snark?
Look, I made my statement in the OP and expressed my views. My engagement with you is off the rails. If you want to actually discuss this, great. If not, then you get the final word of our exchange.
BaggersRDumb
(186 posts)OnyxCollie
(9,958 posts)By using intelligence to rationalize from the mass publics viewpoint, elites can manipulate idea-elements in abstract concepts to squelch outrage and diffuse concern, leading the mass publics attention away from the players rule violations and towards more desired pursuits. As James Madison had written in a letter to Thomas Jefferson on May 13, 1798:
The management of foreign relations appears to be the most susceptible of abuse, of all the trusts committed to a Government, because they can be concealed or disclosed, or disclosed in such parts & at such times as will best suit particular views; and because the body of the people are less capable of judging & are more under the influence of prejudices, on that branch of their affairs, than of any other. Perhaps it is a universal truth the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad (Madison, 1798).
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)want to do anyway. Third time's the charm, I suppose. And Obama can have his little trophy/victory. "I helped destroy Social Security."
valerief
(53,235 posts)MindPilot
(12,693 posts)Sure you can get shot and killed--just like walking down the street in a US city--but at least you're drawing a paycheck.
JEB
(4,748 posts)TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)which Obama probably realizes now that the neocons have mostly gone from his administration). As always with the middle east and Africa, when you get rid of someone, you have to think: who is going to take his place, and will it be even worse? Assad was a bastard, but like Saddam Hussein, kept the lid on the pot. Promoting the idea that we could have steered Syria in some beneficial direction is total Hillary/neocon bullshit and I'm sad to see that pushed here.
pampango
(24,692 posts)even if people in his country start to rebel against repression? And if there are 'bastards' out there, should we just leave them alone or should we actively promote the longevity of 'bastards' since they are good at "keeping the lid on the pot".
When people rebel against "bastards" (and they always will), do we protect the 'bastard' who is 'keeping the lid on the pot', support the people who want a more open government or just leave folks to the mercy of the 'bastards' military and security forces and wish them well.
Is this "bastard promotion" policy substantially different from the long-term US foreign policy of promoting "strong men" in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia in the interest of promoting 'stability' over 'democracy'. I thought liberals had determined that the long term consequence of promoting dictators and 'stability' was to create the civil unrest that we were trying to avoid. I thought conservatives were pro-authoritarian regime and liberals were anti-authoritarian regime.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)adequately control the outcome. The citizenry won't much care for their newfound "freedom" if it involves instability, new oppression, and a failed state that opens up room for extremist movements. In Syria, all we would have done by funneling more arms to our select rebel groups (FSA) sooner is LOSE even more arms/fighters to ISIS earlier. It was a bad road to choose. We told them we'd support them, but it just wasn't realistic or practical that they could fight TWO fronts at once (well-funded complete-nut Sunni jihadists plus Russian-backed Assad) and then take over and rule effectively. If we couldn't make it happen in Iraq, which basically had a near-total collapse of government and military in three years, why were we going to somehow make it happen with the FSA in Syria against even greater odds? If we were doing it to anger Russia or Iran for some reason, then that was even stupider.
pampango
(24,692 posts)(We should not promote regime change even if we can "adequately control the outcome".) Neither should be we in the business of ignoring repression nor of providing reasonable support to people resisting oppression. Again, I think most liberals consider those to be good goals though how you accomplish them is subject to endless debate.
Historically, many (probably most) revolutions (regime changes) have produced "instability and new oppression" (most famously in the case of the French Revolution, but in many others too) in the short run. Often the populous tires of the new instability and the 'old regime' (or a close facsimile) is reinstalled with renewed repression. This produces the seeds for a new revolution. In most countries this eventually produces more open and representative governments. The world is a freer place than it was 500 years ago.
It is a messy, chaotic and often violent process but resistance to repression is part of human nature. (Of course, the desire to repress others for personal gain is a part of human nature, too - hence the problem continues.)
ladjf
(17,320 posts)prolonged guerrilla warfare, they have no protected base, no long term financial backing, and no air war capabilities. They are like weeds without roots.
Basically, they are a crowd of stone age thugs, capitalizing on the temporary political disorganization in Iraq and the Middle East.
Their transportation consists of small pickup trucks plus a good deal of abandoned military equipment that could be mopped up by air strikes over a period of time.
I believe that many other Countries will be willing to assists us is stopping them.
And, they aren't going to "attack us in the US. Osama Bin Laden had substantial assistance for some very wealthy and high ranking people. ISIS has no such connections other than a few rich Arabs.
GP6971
(31,141 posts)I don't doubt there will be an attempt on US soil
Rex
(65,616 posts)I have to agree with you.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)At some point, ISIS will have to deal with the Shiites in Iran, and vice-versa.
All we need to do is stay the hell out of their way, journalists, soldiers, diplomats, contractors, what have you.
XRubicon
(2,212 posts)Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)XRubicon
(2,212 posts)Please predict more middle east events for us and pass that bong over here.
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)Everything you've posted here has been unnecessary. If you disagree with me, fine. Tell me why or tell me nothing. Why did you feel the need to be a smartass?
XRubicon
(2,212 posts)First, I think you couldn't be more wrong about a new war in Iraq. If you really believe that we will be going back in there you have a large dose of reality on the way.
Second or third or whichever one we are on now, I shall tell you nothing more.
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)When you meet with something you don't agree with, instead of talking about it and maybe even learning another person's point of view, you instead go straight to snark. What do you get out of that?
Really. What do you get out of that?
I shall look to you for nothing more.
XRubicon
(2,212 posts)Please....
I read your point of view in your original post. I laughed, I cried (not really), I felt the need to reach out to you and let you know how I felt, in writing. So I did.
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)XRubicon
(2,212 posts)conservaphobe
(1,284 posts)And that it will be somewhere between not enough and too much, but will get criticism for both.
GP6971
(31,141 posts)not so much for future administrations / congresses. This situation is not a "short haul". Crusades comes to mind.
bigtree
(85,992 posts). . .whatever perps actually attack us must be pursued, but it's not reasonable to expect that we should engage in war over it. Nor is it proven anywhere that preemptive wars are the best way to prevent such terrorism.
If anything, the evidence is that military involvement in Iraq, in particular, actually increases that threat against the U.S,. our interests, or our allies, by encouraging even more individuals bent on revenge or other animosity against America to join or aid in that violent cause.
I'd think we'd understand that, but I can see that many Americans do not. There's a tendency to look at our seemingly overwhelminf military forces and believe they can wipe out movements and insurgencies like ISIS by bombing campaigns, or even full-blown war. That hasn't been proven at all.
We are still under threat from individuals who have associated themselves with al-Qaeda in the past or present.In fact, many of those in the leadership in ISIS are said to have been prisoners in the military prisons in Iraq where hundreds of thousands were detained, many tortured, without charges or trial for an indefinite period.
We used to understand, progressives here and elsewhere who glossed over the U.S. military response to the humanitarian crisis atop that mountain in northern Iraq. Glossing over the latest fight to stop insurgents in Iraq; glossing over the fact we should know well, that our military presence and action in Iraq is an irresistible lure for individuals looking to do battle with America; in this case, individuals who view America as an enemy of their religion.
What doesn't seem to be understood by progressives here who are rightly concerned about the spread of terrorism is that the U.S. military attacks - our country's military presence and activities - are ultimately counterproductive to the goals of eliminating any threat that comes from the fundamentalist groups fomenting violence in Iraq - or anywhere else, for that matter.
Opposition to U.S. military action in Iraq goes deeper than just advocating non-violence. It's an opposition to exactly the same 'dumb-war' behavior that President Obama correctly described early in his presidency. It's the misguided notion that the U.S. is indispensable in these matters.
It's the twisted logic that 'we broke it,' therefore, we have to fix it. Except, fixing it means to this administration and military - as it meant to the Bush administration and military - fomenting even more violence in the vain and hopeless aim of ending it.
It's not a matter of just leaving people to die, as many describe the position of opponents of U.S. military intervention - or letting terrorists prevail. Other nations are more suited to help them and we should use our energy and whatever influence we have to encourage them.
It's about the realization that our country, having already broken the country with our destabilizing, destructive, and opportunistic war waged for greed and petty political purposes, can scarcely hope to repair it using the same destabilizing and destructive violence.
To understand the counterproductive effect of military activity in Iraq against this group, you need look no further then our own intelligence agency's conclusions. Our own military actions in Iraq make it worse. That's not just rhetoric, it's proven by conclusions Bush's and Obama's own intelligence agencies . . .
As Bush's own spy agencies correctly cautioned in their 2006 intelligence estimate, our military activity in Iraq had the effect of fostering and fueling even more individuals bent on violent resistance to U.S., our allies, and our interests, than they were able to put down.
It should be no surprise at all to see the report last month from this President's intelligence agencies that our military presence and activity in Iraq - however altruistic the mission - is having the exact same effect of drawing more individuals looking to do battle with our nation, from around the globe, to rally to this emerging insurgent group's deadly cause.
from WaPo Aug. 9:
US intel sees defections from AQ affiliates as fighters flock to ISIS. Q whether strikes will "increase the spigot"
Fighters abandoning al-Qaeda affiliates to join Islamic State, U.S. officials say
U.S. spy agencies have begun to see groups of fighters abandoning al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Africa to join the rival Islamist organization that has seized territory in Iraq and Syria and been targeted in American airstrikes, U.S. officials said.
The movements are seen by U.S. counterterrorism analysts as a worrisome indication of the expanding appeal of a group known as the Islamic State that has overwhelmed military forces in the region and may now see itself in direct conflict with the United States.
. . . The launching of U.S. airstrikes has raised new questions, including whether the bombings will hurt the Islamic States ability to draw recruits or elevate its status among jihadists. Does that increase the spigot or close it? said a senior U.S. counterterrorism official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity and noted that U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere have crippled al-Qaeda but also served as rallying cries against the United States.
Longer-term, U.S. officials expressed concern that the Islamic State, which so far has been focused predominantly on its goal of reestablishing an Islamic caliphate, may now place greater emphasis on carrying out attacks against the United States and its allies.
. . .and, so it goes.
Stinky The Clown
(67,792 posts)Ill advised or the height of wisdom, I still believe we'll be back in a hot war in Iraq.
You cite all good reasons not to follow that course. I agree with all of them. I guess I lack confidence that wisdom will trump might.
I also think ISIS is fully capable of escalating their violent tactics to a point where we have virtually no choice but to engage. What form that might take, I don't know.
bigtree
(85,992 posts). . . and thanks for responding to me, STC.
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)You helped talk the Saudis into funding these assholes who became ISIS.
Such treachery.
chrisa
(4,524 posts)Let them have the country for all anyone cares. It's not our fight anymore.
ISIS doesn't pose any more of a threat to the US mainland than Al Qaeda does. They're mostly concerned with the Middle East. They would, however, make a convenient boogeyman for the Defense industry's lust for endless war.
sub.theory
(652 posts)It's a very bitter truth, but the US has to resume operations in Iraq against ISIS. The local forces in Iraq simply do not have a capacity to resist ISIS alone. The Kurds have been able to retake the Mosul dam, but only with significant assistance of American air power (and rumored Iraqi special forces).
We can not abandon Iraq. Not only does the US have a clear responsibility to Iraq for the colossal mess we have created there, but the sheer brutality and fanaticism of ISIS ensures that further conquests will sign the death warrants of far, far more innocent lives than US military action. Furthermore, ISIS has become a major international threat. They are a quasi-state now and control significant resources. They have at least $2 billion dollars in cash and control access to rich reserves of both oil and antiquities - both of which they are actively selling to finance themselves. ISIS is well armed, well organized, and possess limitless ambition. I truly believe they are of the same degree of danger as the Khmer Rouge and potentially Nazi Germany. The amount of blood they will spill will be endless. US intervention will all but certainly save thousands upon thousands of innocent lives.
We must intervene, and I believe the President understands this. He has already begun us down that road. If handled correctly, we likely need not put any US troops on the ground. The judicial use of American air support, and coordination with local forces in opposition to ISIS as well as other Arab states could be sufficient to defeat ISIS, but only if they are not allowed to continue to grow and prosper.
tkmorris
(11,138 posts)If you mean a major importing of troops and occupation, I would have to disagree.
Iraq has a government, dysfunctional though it may be, and an army, ditto. ISIS has mounted a serious threat to be sure, but it is one Iraq SHOULD be able to handle. They have not largely because of the infighting at the top, which bleeds down to the troops who lack faith in their leadership, and are not willing to fight maintain the status quo.
The leadership has changed however. If the Iraqi government can become more inclusive they should be able to close ranks within the military and fight back against ISIS on the ground. If the US begins a serious air campaign against them as well I don't see how ISIS can hold the ground they have won. An air campaign forces them underground into an insurgency sort of operation, and that allows the Iraqi military to deal with them far more effectively than they have been able to do on the open ground.
Of course this all depends on an effective Iraqi government that unites Shia, Sunni, and Kurds together with a common goal. If that fails it all comes tumbling down, though even in that case I cannot see the point in a major influx of American troops. If a unifying Iraqi government cannot be forged what use would it be?
Cleita
(75,480 posts)to go to war although we really don't know WTF is going on. We will have to trust the President and the intelligence he has.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Where is the EU or NATO on this?