Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium---Gives Dems 70% Chance Of Holding Senate.
Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium does a very nice job of analyzing polls. Mr. Wang's forecast differs from a lot of other work, including the fine work the people here at Dkos are doing.
One of the first questions he asks is what's up with the Dems?:
Senate Democrats are doing surprisingly well. Across the board, Democratic candidates in the nine states above are doing better in the polls-only estimate than the mainstream media models would predict. This is particularly true for Alaska, Arkansas, and North Carolina. In these three states, Democrats are outperforming the expectations of the data pundits (The Upshot’s Leo, Nate Silver, Harry Enten, John Sides, etc.). Why is that, and will it last?
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/#more-10629
He also presents this chart to demonstrate the differences between some of the different people looking at the polls and other factors.
?1409315607
MORE:
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/#more-10629
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/29/1325603/-Sam-Wang-Gives-Dems-70-Chance-Of-Holding-Senate
1 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Kick in to the DU tip jar?
This week we're running a special pop-up mini fund drive. From Monday through Friday we're going ad-free for all registered members, and we're asking you to kick in to the DU tip jar to support the site and keep us financially healthy.
As a bonus, making a contribution will allow you to leave kudos for another DU member, and at the end of the week we'll recognize the DUers who you think make this community great.
