"Democrats Solidify Leads In Must-Hold Senate Races"

[applegrove]

Democrats Solidify Leads In Must-Hold Senate Races

Nate Cohn

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/09/12/democrats_solidify_leads_in_must-hold_senate_races.html

"SNIP..................

"A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous... But today the Democratic path to victory looks as clear as it has at any point this year. That path remains narrow, to be sure. The Democrats will probably still need to sweep those five fairly close races. Yet with just two months to go, the Democrats appear to have an advantage in four of them. And the Democrats have other opportunities that might give them more breathing room."

"If Colorado and Michigan are penciled into the Democratic column, the Democrats would then need three more states to get to a majority. The Democrats have a fairly broad set of options for those states, but the likeliest possibility is that the election comes down to three states: Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina."

.......................SNIP"

[applegrove]

1. If you build it they will come....

[MADem]

2. Thank you for taking the time to post this.

I see so much gloom-and-doom here, it's nice to see a positive story that describes a possibly positive outlook.

GOTV, as always, is the key.

We have no competitive senate seats in my state, but I'll be dragging people to the polls for a governor's race, and a few other key local runs as well.

[NYC_SKP]

3. I know, right?

So much negativity on the DU lately, sheesh.

[applegrove]

4. I know. We have the numbers to win. It all depends on apathy. So I saw

the headline and thought "you're going up on the DU baby"!

[still_one]

6. Nate Silver and his outlook contributed to that

[still_one]

5. It will be right down to the wire

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html

[Jim Lane]

9. The closeness of it raises some intriguing possibilities

Possible result in November: 49 Dems, 50 Republicans, Louisiana going to a runoff. Control of the Senate will turn on that one runoff election. How much money will pour into Louisiana?

Another possibility: 49 Dems, 50 Republicans, Kansas won by Orman (who hasn't said how he'll caucus). He becomes, albeit briefly, the most powerful politician in America.

[still_one]

11. I think Kansas is very interesting

[tkmorris]

7. The best part about this news for me is...

If you actually look at what seats are being contested each 2 year cycle, THIS is the one where Dems are in the most trouble by far. If they can hold the Senate this cycle they look to be in very good position to pick up seats and solidify that hold in 2016, and 2018 looks pretty good too.

I think if the Dems hold on to the Senate this fall they may well hold on to it and increase their majority for the next decade, or more. Now we just need to get the House back, and not piss away the Presidency. I really do think that by 2018 we MAY be looking at solid majorities in the Senate and the House, as well as a President of our choosing. Halcyon days indeed, as long as we get out the vote this Fall and keep on keepin' on the next couple of cycles.

[Cha]

8. Damn.. keeping my fingers crossed!

thanks apple~

[Liberal_in_LA]

10. me too

[applegrove]

12. My pleasure Cha

[freshwest]

16. +1

[Enthusiast]

13. If you vote for a Republican you are a fucking idiot.

Sorry, but it's true.

[stillwaiting]

19. Unless you're a wealthy sociopath. Then it makes sense how someone could do so. nt

[Major Hogwash]

14. I think that Colorado will go Democrat this year.

There have been some other things happening there that have not taken place elsewhere that leads me to that conclusion.

[world wide wally]

15. I'm hoping some Dem senators are elected on the coat tails of Governors like in Colorado and

wherever else it comes into play

[Blue_In_AK]

17. There are some ballot issues that are likely to draw Dems

and left-leaning undeclareds to the polls in Alaska - legalized weed and a minimum wage bill, specifically - as well as a referendum here in Anchorage repealing an unpopular anti-labor bill that our mayor rammed through last year. Dan Sullivan is linked to unpopular governor Sean Parnell as his DNR commissioner and formerly his AG. He has residency issues as it appears he was getting claiming residence in Md. to get tax breaks while simultaneously claiming Alaska residency. He has taken a lot of positions in his official capacity here that are deeply unpopular with rural Alaskans.

Mark Begich has his own problems, of course, but I think he's going to pull this out. He was born and raised here, his family is respected and he is a consummate moderate, which (despite public opinion) most Alaskans are. Palins are an anomaly.

Elections here are often very, very close. It was several weeks before Mark was declared the winner over Ted Stevens in 2008 but he did ultimately succeed - and Dan Sullivan is no Ted Stevens.

[defacto7]

18. I really hope this is correct.

I heard a damning broadcast on NPR a couple of days ago that took the wind out of my sails, the commentators saying that the Dems will likely loose the Senate majority and loose some in the house but they were leaning on precedent not the present day political climate. I was depressed the rest of the day.

We must keep ahead... we are up against every political evil and unethical behavior that can exist in politics and it's one of the last 2 chances to get the rights of the people back. If the RW moves ahead in 2014 then gets the majority in 2016... America is done.

[lindysalsagal]

20. Alaska? Dem? Really?

I thought it was redder than red square, which, of course, can be seen from Alaska.