The Midterm Electorate Is Anxious and Unsettled

[xchrom]

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/09/the-american-mood-and-the-midterm-elections/379991/

?nbpgm1

Less than two months before the midterm elections, American voters are frightened and unsettled by conditions in the U.S. and around the world. They crave stability, distrust politicians, and have little faith that changing control of Congress would accomplish anything. And while few are pleased with President Obama's leadership, they don't see the November elections primarily as a referendum on it.

These were the attitudes expressed in a pair of focus groups of swing-voting women on Tuesday night. The two panels of middle-income mothers in Little Rock and Des Moines revealed a political landscape that has shifted markedly since the last election, as economic anxieties appear to have ebbed and worries about physical security have risen to take their place. The "Walmart Moms"—women with children living at home who shop at Walmart, which underwrites the panels, at least once a month—aren't a perfectly representative slice of the electorate. But they have mirrored the electorate's swings in the last three elections, and they offer a window into the sentiments that will determine this year's vote.

Most strikingly, the women in both groups expressed pervasive worry about violence. From the Islamic State to the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri, to local crime and school shootings, these concerns were at the top of their minds. The word "scary" came up repeatedly when they described the state of the world, along with "unsettled" and "unstable." Amanda, a 31-year-old African-American mother of five in Little Rock, compared the situation to Forrest Gump's box of chocolates: "You never know what you're going to get. One day you're okay; the next day there's something overseas or a school shooting. We're okay for like a month, then here comes something else." Louise, a white Des Moines travel agent with one child who voted for Romney, said she didn't think Obama was handling ISIS well: "I think we needed to take action, and he's just stepped back .... I don't think it's going to stay in that part of the world." Jerri, an Obama voter, agreed: "It just seems like when he's put under a lot of pressure, he just stops." An Obama voter in Des Moines described the president as "more reactive than proactive."

This emphasis on security was a departure from previous groups, many of which I've covered in the past few years, in which economic anxiety has overwhelmingly dominated. Neil Newhouse, the Republican half of the bipartisan team of pollsters conducting the study, said he'd never heard that sense of instability from voters before. Margie Omero, his Democratic counterpart, concurred: "There was so much more salience on crime and safety than I've heard in a long time, and it broke across racial lines." The pollsters noted that other international turmoil in recent years has not made such a strong impression on the mom groups. Recent polling also supports the idea of a newly national-security-focused electorate, with war-weariness receding somewhat and a majority of Americans favoring military action against ISIS, though most still do not support ground troops.