As Sunni Tribes Sit on Sidelines, U.S. Airstrikes Don’t Halt ISIS (IOW Ground Troops Needed)

[morningfog]

After six weeks of American airstrikes, the Iraqi government’s forces have scarcely budged Sunni extremists of the Islamic State from their hold on more than a quarter of the country, in part because many critical Sunni tribes remain on the sidelines.

Although the airstrikes appear to have stopped the extremists’ march toward Baghdad, the Islamic State is still dealing humiliating blows to the Iraq government forces. On Monday, the government acknowledged that it had lost control of the northern town of Sijr and lost contact with several hundred of its soldiers who had been trapped for several days at a camp north of the Islamic State stronghold of Falluja, in Anbar Province.

By midday, there were reports that hundreds of soldiers had been killed in battle or mass executions. Ali Bedairi, a lawmaker from the governing alliance, said more than 300 soldiers had died after the loss of the base, Camp Saqlawiya, although his count could not be confirmed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/world/middleeast/isis-iraq-airstrikes.html?_r=0

How long will the ineffectiveness go on before the generals recommend a larger ground presence. And this is in Iraq, where there is already an army.

[cali]

1. it's ridiculously clear that this is a doomed effort

but DU has scads of people supporting this idiocy.

[grahamhgreen]

2. It's not about ISIL, it's about taking out Assad, IMHO.

[CJCRANE]

3. These guys pulled themselves up by their bootstraps

now they have a magical army that just keeps going despite not having any outside support.

[cali]

4. I'm not sure what you're saying. I'm assuming that

you're saying they aren't the force that is described in this article and virtually every other piece about ISIS. Is that a correct interpretation of your post?

[CJCRANE]

5. I don't know what they are.

They seem to be a formidable fighting force that can take on whole countries and just keep going.

I'm not saying I don't believe it, I'm just bewildered by it.

[cali]

6. well, consider that they are taking territory (not whole countries)

in 2 countries that are both essentially failed states caught up in civil wars with many less than cohesive factions. ISIS has a clear vision- an awful one- but it's coherent. In Iraq, the military is incapable and riven with corruption. In Syria, the military is engaged on more than one front.

[CJCRANE]

11. Well, in that case, I'm thinking...

If these guys are better trained, armed and funded than (for wxample) the Taliban or previous iterations of Al Qaeda...

Then we're talking about a major potential quagmire bigger than we've seen in recent years.

I think I would accept Putin's offer of help in this case.

However, I feel sorry for the Iraqis: I dread to think what their country will look like when this is all over.

[cheapdate]

10. Not magic. Iraqi army turned ISIL.

Whole battalions of trained and equipped Iraq military have been deserting for years. ISIL has professional military leadership, armor and heavy weapons.

[Uncle Joe]

31. This is why the actions of Iraq's new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi are key to any success against

ISIL, ISIS.

He must be more inclusive toward disaffected Sunnis and I believe at this time, that he is trying.

This would be the only hope of splintering off disenfranchised Sunni elements of Iraq's Army from the radical, hard core extremists.

Toward the OP, this is also a good reason to be methodical and take their time in waging a major ground war; which would only serve to dramatically increase casualties and harden the hearts of those former Sunni Iraqi Army battalions.

[cheapdate]

7. What happens in Iraq is none of our concern.

We're not responsible for protecting people in Iraqi Kurdistan, they are.

[TwilightGardener]

8. No, this is precisely why we won't be doing a ground war.

This is a repeat of 2006 that got a lot of American troops killed for nothing, and led to us "surging" with overwhelming troop numbers and paying off Sunni tribesman--high cost for transient peace. Until the local Sunnis want to get rid of ISIS, we'll have to push them back where we can and wait until an agreement is made between Sunnis and Shia.

[cali]

9. but it's not pushing them back- with perhaps the exception of Baghdad

I think that's the point- bombing has not been effective. ISIS is still taking more territory in Iraq and Syria and defeating the ground forces fighting them.

[cheapdate]

13. Not just Baghdad.

Air strikes have stopped ISIL advances and allowed Kurdish fighters to push them back from Sinjar, Mosul, Erbil, Makhmur, Gwer, etc.

[cali]

25. uh, no.

ISIS controls Mosul and they are making advances.

http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/09/22/syrian-refugees-turkey

[cheapdate]

27. I was careless and mistaken.

ISIL was driven back from Mosul Dam, not the city of Mosul. Mosul was taken before air strikes began.

[TwilightGardener]

15. Bombing has been effective where we have effective ground fighters to hold territory.

We have a huge effort underway to arm and train the Kurds in Iraq, they have been doing well in protecting their territory--compare that with the Kurds of Syria, who aren't being helped with US airstrikes and weapons, and are fleeing in droves. But the areas that are struggling in Iraq are those that are predominantly Sunni (like Fallujah, which was actually captured by ISIS last winter), and it was the Sunni that let ISIS in with an eye toward forcing political change and a balance of power. When the Sunnis are ready to throw off ISIS, and the Iraqi army gets better at fighting them, hopefully it will turn around. ISIS hasn't penetrated Baghdad, aside from small terror attacks, because of the Shiite militias, which are kind of bad dudes themselves that we don't want to work with. I guarantee you that Obama and his national security team understand the difficulties they face, and are trying to avoid the pitfalls.

[morningfog]

12. Tell that to Gen. Dempsey, whom Obama is relying on for military advise.

He said if/when the air campaign is shown to not work, he'll advise ground troops.

[cali]

14. mission creep is practically a law of "limited action".

[TwilightGardener]

16. Special forces, though, not brigades of regular infantry. There is a big difference.

I don't believe Dempsey would ever recommend large numbers of regular combat troops to insert themselves between Sunni, ISIS, and Shia ever again. I'm pretty sure Hagel wouldn't sign off on that, either.

[cali]

18. who knows? Mission creep happens almost inevitably

and there are variables that could, I believe, lead to troops on the ground.

[TwilightGardener]

20. I don't see it. I think we'll do what we can with airstrikes, advisors, spotters, intelligence--

but Iraq will have to step up with the ground fighting and holding territory and cities. Nineteen year old kids from Iowa that joined up for a paycheck and GI Bill benefits can't and shouldn't keep Sunnis and Shia from killing each other (or using terror groups to kill each other)--never could, never will. I have faith that Obama's people understand that. The problem will be the next President, if we're not well on our way to settling this.

[cali]

21. history. if you look at history, you'll see it.

the Iraq armed forces have demonstrated quite clearly that they aren't capable of fighting ISIS. What's more ISIS has a significant number of former Iraqi military in its ranks.

And it's clear from remarks made by Dempsey and Biden and others, that ground troops aren't totally unthinkable.

[TwilightGardener]

22. Well, we'll have to see. I think it will be a long slog.

[morningfog]

23. Dempsey didn't it limit it that way:

“My view at this point is that this coalition is the appropriate way forward,” Dempsey said. “I believe that will prove true. If it fails to be true and there are threats to the U.S., then of course, I would go back to the president and make the recommendation that may include the use of U.S. military ground forces.”

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025543925

This is separate than his other suggestion that he could recommend embedding special forces with the Iraqi Army. The bottom line is, all the groundwork has been laid to get US military ground forces in Iraq and/or Syria, despite the words of the President.

[WilliamPitt]

17. The Pleasant Fiction of "No Boots on the Ground"

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/26188

[cali]

19. one of several fictions maintained by supporters

the fiction that bombing can root out ISIS, the fiction that the "new" Iraqi government will be a unifying force, the fiction that the Iraqi armed forces will effectively fight. Lots of fictions.

[flamingdem]

24. Where are the Shiite militia when you need them

That's how they won back Amerli, that and Iranian advisors.

Time to cooperate more..

[gordianot]

26. That is a really good point, few years ago they were such a threat Cheney had a heart transplant.

I even remember the Shiite militia were so fierce some thought we had to invade Iran. What happened?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

28. America seems unable to pass up an opportunity to step in a pile of shit it created.

And, then repeat the process of providing more shit for the next step.

[KurtNYC]

29. What are US ground troops going to do now that is any different from what they did during the years

we were there?

Much of the analysis from mainstream US news sources seems to ignore the dynamics of this multi-sided conflict. If we continue to talk about this conflict like it is a football game ("sit on sidelines&quot we will never begin to understand how many groups there are and what each of them want. Missing from this excerpt is any consciousness of the most basic dynamics, including:

- ISIS is Sunni backed, the Iraqi government is Shia dominated and has alienated many Sunnis.
- Iraqi Sunnis are, therefore, one of the least likely forces in Iraq to oppose ISIS
- Baghdad is Shia dominated and heavily defended. Unlike a football field where every yard gained is relatively just as hard to do, conquering Baghdad is beyond the abilities of 2,000+ mercs in Toyota pick-ups.

I think a better analogy than football is perhaps the Roman Empire. The Romans conquered territory through military prowess but they held it by making the conquered want to be Romans. They assimilated other cultures into theirs with a strategy that played out like a massive version of the Stockholm Syndrome. As the Roman military empire collapsed, it was replaced by the Holy Roman Empire (which existed in some formal structure until 1806) and now the Roman Catholic Church with 1.2 billion members. For Iraq and Syria, ISIS, similarly, uses a combination of military strategy and religious propaganda/laws/heirarchies, so the most easily assimilated are going to be Sunnis, especially Sunnis who feel oppressed by either Baghdad or Assad. But this is much more than a Sunni vs Shia conflict as the President of both Iraq and Syria are a non-Arab Kurd and Alawite (a branch of Shia, over-represented in the Syrian military due to France...) respectively and many other sects and forces are involved.

- - -
For a more thorough analysis of the wars I use (among other sources):
http://iswsyria.blogspot.com/2014/09/jabhat-al-nusra-regroups-after-isis.html

Sample:

The declaration of a Caliphate by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) on June 30 prompted a major inflection in the disposition of Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) in Syria. While ISIS forces swept southeast from Mosul in Iraq, an ISIS escalation against regime military bases in Syria demonstrated its high military effectiveness across two theatres. As a result, JN forces, once the preeminent military challenge to the Syrian regime, were faced with a major competitor and a significant challenge to their centers of gravity in Eastern Syria. Seeking to avoid marginalization, JN reprioritized its assets and adjusted its force posture to carve out a new center of gravity in northwestern Syria. An immediate withdrawal from most of its strongholds in Deir ez-Zour province in early July surrendered the primary source of JN military and economic strength, but allowed JN to avoid a significant confrontation with a strengthened ISIS that would have likely cost JN a large number of fighters and hindered its ability to continue to fight the Syrian regime.

[Warren Stupidity]

30. Fuck that.