Who do you think will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	John Ellis Bush
	7 (41%)
	Ted Cruz
	0 (0%)
	Chris Christie
	1 (6%)
	Rand Paul
	2 (12%)
	Sarah Palin
	0 (0%)
	Donald Trump
	0 (0%)
	Mike Huckabee
	1 (6%)
	Rick Santorum
	0 (0%)
	Willard Romney
	3 (18%)
	Other
	3 (18%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Scuba]

1. Mitt.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I welcome a rerun. The only R that scares me is Jeb but I think we can beat him./NT

[ChisolmTrailDem]

7. Don't be scared, VOTE!

I realized I prolly don't need to tell you that, DSB. But I couldn't resist.

How about this: Let's root for Jeb! (Root, in such a context, is a funny word, lol. But I digress). I'll tell you why... Which candidate would polarize, and therefore motivate, the left and Democrats more than a run by another Bush? Yes, Jeb is a mighty mind compared to his stupid kid brother, but he is still a bush. I know how I will react and what I will do if Jeb is the nominee and I suspect, and expect, the same reaction and action from all Democrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Bush can get all the Romey votes

Bush can get all the Romey votes and poach a few Latino votes because he speaks Spanish, his family is Spanish, and he is progressive on immigration.

I do believe his relatively benign stance on immigration might inspire a right wing challenger in the general but Republicans usually fall into line.

That's scary. I rather run against a Cruz or Paul.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

11. But we're not going to be running against a Cruz or a Paul, regardless. If Democrats can't beat a

bush, then...well, damn!

I admit sheepishly, though, that I hadn't thought of the Latino aspect. That could be a problem in my a-bush-as-a-motivation musing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I should have said his family is Latino.

Remember when Bush Pere called his grandson the "little brown one".

[amandabeech]

19. A right-wing UKIP-style candidate would surely run as an independent or third party candidate.

I monitor FR and Breitbart from time to time. Immigration just drives those folks bat-shit crazy. They'll play that video of JEB saying that immigration is an "act of love" and they'll be off to the races.

The question is, will they pull enough votes away from the pukes to move any state into the D column. A state where the parties are close and immigration is a hot topic might be in play. Arizona? North Carolina has many migrant agricultural workers in the tobacco fields, but I don't have any sense of whether the voters in NC view immigration as a problem.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. For a Democrat to be elected president he or she needs to get 90% of The African American vote...

For a Democrat to be elected president he or she needs to get 90% of The African American vote and 70% of the Latino vote. The further he or she falls below those percentages the less likely his or her chances of success are.

[amandabeech]

32. So, do you think that all the speculation that goes on leading up to Presidential elections,

aside from speculation of the turnout rates of the groups that you mention, is irrelevant?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. That's a good question.

I am firmly in the demographics camp. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson. I believe Clinton won small pluralities in his three man races with Bush and Perot dividing the white vote in 92 and Perot and Dole dividing the white vote in 96.

As an aside that's why Gallup's presidential polling was so flawed as to be a joke and worthless. Simply put they woefully underestimated how black and brown the electorate was and overestimated how white it would be.

Could the two major parties nominate candidates that are so palatable or unpalatable that they can upset the demographic calculus. That's your question. I think it's possible but unlikely.

[amandabeech]

38. Well, I have to say, that the Republican efforts at minority voter suppression, especially black

voter suppression, suggest that they, too, are in the demographics camp.

On the other hand, if Dem voter turnout was low like it often is in off-year elections because of an uninspiring candidate, a conservative third-party candidate could help the Dems win nonethless.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out in 2016.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Mid terms and general elections are totally different animals and have been that way forever.

The demographic groups vote as they historically vote but the percentages of those that vote are much lower, especially for minority voters. i am not optimistic at all about the mid terms. The House is so gerrymandered and the seats we could lose we already lost so our losses shouldn't be dramatic. The Senate scares me.

[amandabeech]

44. I realize that with respect to turnout, midterms differ from presidential years,

particularly for Dem voters, and I don't think that applies just to minorities.

Obama really did well with minority voters, and rightly so. But not every Dem candidate has been that popular, and although minorities are very, very important in Dem politics, it is not clear to me that all future Dem candidates will necesarily be as popular as Obama with minority voters. I don't think that Hillary would have garnered the turnout in the minority communities to the extent that Obama has, although she might pull in more independent and old-fashioned moderate rep women.

Check out the NYT article that I posted in response to your original post. You might find it interesting.

As to your views on the midterms, I am in 100% agreement. Unfortunately.

[amandabeech]

40. Here's a NYT story about third parties affecting November's senate and gubernatorial

races.

3rd-Party Names May Tip Scale as 2 Parties Battle for Control

WASHINGTON — In an election year shaped by voter anger toward the political establishment, the outcome of an unusually large number of close Senate and governor’s races could be determined by the outsize role of third-party candidates.

The potential spoilers include a quixotic former three-term senator, a pizza delivery man and an Alaskan whose name, Fish, summons a favored native food. They represent independents, Libertarians and other parties that have suddenly become relevant — and could affect the balance of power in Congress and decide who runs the governor’s offices in several states.

“If people don’t like their choices with the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, then you’re going to see a spurt in third-party candidates, so they can definitely affect outcomes,” said Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/28/us/politics/3rd-party-names-may-tip-scale-as-2-parties-battle-for-control-.html?action=click&contentCollection=U.S.&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=article

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Read/TY for the link

As a former Floridian I hope Rick Scott goes down.

[customerserviceguy]

52. Jeb shouldn't scare anyone

If by some miracle he overcame all the opposition to him among the GOP base, he'd lose the general election because that base just wouldn't GOTV for him, even if some of them reluctantly voted for him.

But, it's not gonna happen, the establishment Republicons need him for 2020 to deal with not giving Hillary a second term. They'll sacrifice someone to wear the 'loser' label (which is why it ain't gonna be Mittens) that benefits them, and the Tea Party wing is the biggest burr under their saddle. Rand Paul will be offered up as the sacrificial lamb.

The banksters want Hillary for one term, but they know she'll go leftward on them once she wins a second term.

[merrily]

5. The signs are there, sure enough.

this morning, I saw an ad he filmed for POS Scott Brown, now running for the New Hampshire Senate.

Not usually done by politicians who want to fade quietly into the sunset to lick their wounds in embarrassment over their decisive defeat.

[merrily]

2. Some asshole or another, I guaranty.

[GitRDun]

4. I don't think Bush is a good candidate

He is the best of that group in the clown car.

Perhaps someone new will emerge.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Everything is relative. As you said he's the best of the clown car group.

As I said I think we can beat him but I would prefer a sure thing like Cruz or Paul or Christie who would be easy to caricature.

[Logical]

8. No Rubio? nt

[lpbk2713]

25. Someone will grab him for veep I'm sure.

I don't think enough of the party high rollers think he is seasoned enough yet.

[morningfog]

9. I have no idea. I can't even predict it yet.

[rock]

13. I was going to say a piece of shit

But I see it's a poll, and sure enough, all the entries are.

[GoneOffShore]

14. Don't worry. The GOP has a big supply of turd polish.

[rock]

16. And they're particularly good at boot licking

Combined with that turd polish they should have no problem.

[grasswire]

15. I can tell you that the freepers HATE Jeb.

Anything we can do to splinter the right is good. Freepers are still for Palin, and hate Mitt.

[orpupilofnature57]

29. The 1% uses them (freepers) but they regard them less than Dem's .

And Jeb is chip off his grandfathers and Poppy's block .

[greatlaurel]

17. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio

He is up for reelection this November. The Democratic Party has abandoned Ohio to this thug. Our state is going to be the next Kansas, only worse. The right wing owned news media and the corrupt banking industry in Ohio have joined forces to keep this crook in power and they are already setting him up to run for president. All the theft in office and intimidation of state workers are being completely hidden from public view to protect King John. The Democratic Party has done nothing to get this criminal sociopath out of office.

The right wing here in Ohio thinks he can easily beat Hillary Clinton, especially because they are going to reinstall our Secretary
of State Jon Husted(aka Secretary of Suppression), who will make sure he steals the election for his pal in November 2016.

[amandabeech]

24. I thought that Mitt's buddy Sen Portman wanted to run.

Can Ohio field two candidates, or has Portman signaled that he's not running, maybe because Mitt the doghater is actually still thinking about it?

[greatlaurel]

49. It will be the clash of the titans here in Ohio. The Lindner family and the Wolfe family will decide

Last edited Sat Sep 27, 2014, 09:22 PM - Edit history (1)

Portman is from southwestern Ohio and is owned body and soul by the Lindners. Kasich is owned by the Wolfe family. The Wolfes are backing Kasich to run for president. His candidacy for POTUS is regularly pushed by the Wolfe owned media outlets. The Lindners still appear to be backing Portman.

Kasich is a bizarre pick to run for POTUS. I do not see what the people who own him see in him, but then I do not understand how anyone would vote for him for governor, either. He must be able to give the 1% exactly what they want. He did manage to steal $400 million from the state pension funds for Lehman Bros. before they went belly up. There have long been rumors about him, which never make it to the MSM level. The handlers will not allow him to speak in public or participate in debates. He looks like he has a very severe drinking/drug problem. His hair looks like a meth addict's hair. The recent photos of him are really shocking. He is extremely abusive to wait staff and other people he considers unimportant. Unfortunately, none of that seems to make any difference to the voters.

The Wolfe family has very deep ties with the BFEE, so if Jeb does not run Kasich may well be the substitute for Jeb. Portman could be a Jeb sub, but I think he has much less support from the people who matter, other than the Lindners.

The Lindners also have deep ties to the Bush family and, of course, Portman worked for both Bush presidents. He was the U.S. Trade Representative from May 2005 to May 2006, when US jobs were being shipped to China and other third world countries at record pace. Portman may not be able to win in a GOP primary due to him coming out in favor of gay rights, since his son is gay. He is another handmaiden for the 1%, though. That probably displeased some very powerful people who would think that Portman should have repudiated his child. It shows weakness in their eyes.

Either man are completely vile and should never be placed in positions of power over people. The Wolfes and Lindners are both ruthless families who will do anything to anyone to continue to expand their vast influence and wealth.

[amandabeech]

50. Thanks for the excellent essay!

The two prospective candidates and their supporters sound like the absolute worst! And this is someone who grew up in western lower Michigan and knows about the vile Amway scam artists named De Voss.

Perhaps these Ohio Montagues and Capulets will slice each other up in public and neither survive.

Yuck!

[greatlaurel]

59. Thank you very much.

It would be nice if they started a war of the titans, but they are probably too devious to do that. Ohio is in a very sad state of affairs. We are quickly becoming the Mississippi of the North. The latest outrage is the decision of the Ohio Supreme Court too allow a coal company to strip mine a state park. Justice Paul Pfeifer stated that strip mining does no more damage than any other form of mining or mineral extraction. What a nitwit.

I expect that our public pension funds will be destroyed when Kasich and Mandel(state treasurer) are reelected in November. The experiment there in your home state of Michigan has gone very well for them in stealing the pension funds of Detroit. I am sure we are next. The tens of billions of dollars will be given to the financier class (Lindners and Wolfes). They will see it as a very good return on their investment in buying the election for Kasich and Mandel.

It is so very depressing. I thought we had a shot this November, but the national party has completely abandoned Ohio. What a mess. Richard Cordray saw the writing on the wall and he will not be back, IMO.

[amandabeech]

60. My gawd! Strip mining a state park? That's truly hideous.

I'm sorry about Ohio. The death of US industry and the demolition of unions has really ravaged the Great Lakes States. Indiana was always more conservative, but Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin really seem to have lost their way. Even Chicago isn't doing as well as usual. It really does seem like we've all been abandoned by the party in favor of Wall Street and Silicon Valley money.

In Michigan, there's a chance of getting rid of Snyder and of putting a Dem in Carl Levin's seat. I just hope that the folks in Detroit and other Dem leaning spots will get out the vote!

[Puzzledtraveller]

18. Rand Paul will be the nominee

Willing to bet the dog on it, I'm allergic to dogs, it's my in-laws.

[wandy]

20. Now thats a hard call...........

I would tend to favor "upper crust" Romney. Grand slam, a government of the 1%, for the 1% by and lead by the 1%. You can bet that large sums of money and power will be spent to promote Mittens.

This doesn't say that Jeb should be discounted. Never understatement the power of the BFEE. Their is good money in war and the populace can easily be sold war.

In either case, to get the Koch/Alderson money on board the VP will need to be more of the John Birch/Teabagger and religiously insane verity. The VP slot may be more interesting to watch. Here I would put Cruz or Walker as leading contenders.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Jeb and Willard seem like ideological and temperamental twins.

That's why the Bushes went all in for him or maybe they were Machiavellian and knew he was a loser, setting the stage for Jeb In 2012.


What Jeb has going for him is his relatively progressive immigration stance and his Latino wife and family.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. Rubio; and, FWIW, he leads the betting at British bookmakers

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

[lpbk2713]

27. BWAHAHAHA --- Bachmann is dead last

Looks like they know about Bachmann clear over on the other side of the pond.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Your numbers collapsed

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016RepNomination

Omitting Rubio from my poll was major oversight. I don't know what I was thinking

[JHB]

23. I predict with 100% certInty that it will be....

...nobody fit to actually hold the office.

[shenmue]

31. Zing

[winter is coming]

34. I thought you were going to say

"someone I won't be voting for, so I don't give a shit". Guess that was just me, thinking it too loudly.

[JHB]

36. Or I'm just a genius at subliminal text

After all, the two comments tend to reinforce each other.

[shenmue]

30. Satan

[giftedgirl77]

35. Oh you mean Mittens....

He's actually listed up there under his legal name of Willard

[Louisiana1976]

33. I voted for Mittens getting a rerun but Jeb's chances also look good.

[hunter]

39. Mallard Fillmore or someone equally banal, venal, and mean.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mallard_Fillmore

[demwing]

42. I hope they run Ben Carson

they going to want to promote a non-white candidate, but it's as likely as having AC in hell.

[CK_John]

43. It's Mitt to turn down, The GOP is a top down organization and he is scheduled to run again.

A GOP POTUS has no flexibility and is just a spokesman.

[ieoeja]

45. I grew up when the television show Laugh-In was on the air.

Ronald Reagan was this weird nutcase who ran for President every election, and never garnered more than 1% or 2% in a primary. He was the Kucinich of the GOP. So Laugh-In's "News of the Future" segment would often open with "President Ronald Wilson Reagan" (pause for laughter).

But he won the GOP nomination in 1980. Then he selected as Vice President a man who said his own Presidential mate's economic polices were "Voodoo Economics".

Yet, he was still elected President. And proved his VP, and everyone who ever voted in an election prior to 1980, correct. He was a complete idiot. 18 months years later the economy entered the worst recession since the Great Depression. More farmers went bankrupt than did during the entire Great Depression. Unemployment jumped from 6% to 10% where it stayed for two years through the next election.

So naturally, he was re-elected in a landslide.

To this day he is revered by the GOP.

And you expect me to predict who these people will select as their next presidential candidate?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Reagan went into the 1976 GOP Convention with almost as many delegates as President Ford.

He had DicK Nixon scared to death in 1968 that he would wrest the nomination from him. Those on the left underestimated him, since he ran for CA governor against Pat Brown, much to their ultimate peril.


That being said, times change. I don't think he could be elected in 2016.

[TheKentuckian]

47. A complete dumpster fire.

[Faryn Balyncd]

48. Here are 23 Reasons frontrunner Bush should THINK TWICE about before running:

(There are lots of skeletons in the closet that perhaps calls for some daylight.)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025593051

[UTUSN]

55. That list ought to be lethal, but it's nothing at all

All the items in the list about the kids’ drugs & juvenile records can be stricken as rich kids' problems. In fact, the George Pee Shrub fellow is running for a legacy Texas office and is a shoo-in on his way to claiming the Governor's throne. So if his adolescent rap sheet doesn't hurt him, why should it bother Jeb Crow Shrub's running. The wife's Custom incident is just so absurd that it's off the list. The B.F.E.E. (BUSH Family Evil Empire), unlike any other Rethugs, have a real connection with Hispanics just because of the rotten Texas milieu, the smiles and hugs (and ignorance), and Jeb Crow Shrub's Mexican-born wife is a bond with them, even if she is kept out of the public eye. Her real downside is the TeaBaggers/wingnuts' racism against her.

The real obstacles to Jeb Crow are Shrub W's debacle in office, but even that is fading in time but even more so that we are carrying on his wars, AND his own alienation from the TeaBaggers/wingnuts.

The financial shenanigans and business partners with CIA/CubanExiles are much more serious, but those are too complicated and old for the voters' attention spans. Brother Neil’s Savings and Loan crimes against the country will have no more impact on Jeb Crow than ShrubW’s own financial crimes did against him himself.

If he runs, I think Hillary will chicken out, and even if she runs, the ex-Presidents' Club makes it unlikely she would bring up any of the dirty list against him.

My nightmare is a real possibility.

[JustAnotherGen]

51. Huntsman

I'm hearing we shouldn't pay attention to his coyness about it. No sidelines for him.

[LWolf]

53. Don't know, don't care. nt

[Jackpine Radical]

54. Satan.

Although he will undoubtedly use one of the avatars you listed in the poll.

[Terra Alta]

56. I think it will be Rand Paul.

He will appeal to young voters, libertarians, and independent-leaning Republicans. I hope I'm wrong, because I think he would be a threat if he were to win the nomination.

[madokie]

57. Big head Jeb no doubt

I'll be voting for the Dem no matter who it is but I'm afraid if its the seemingly anointed one we may be in trouble. We don't know who it will be on either side yet but it is time to be thinking about it. IMO

[Gothmog]

61. I think that Romney will run again

The man is convinced that it is his destiny to be POTUS

[craigmatic]

62. If Jeb and willard both run they'll split the establishment vote and we can assume the crazies will

already be split. It'll be a shit storm.

[mnhtnbb]

63. What a collection of a$$hole$.