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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNassim Taleb: Here's What People Don't Understand About Ebola
Since so many right now are talking about "panic" and, particularly, how so many people apparently "just don't understand ebola", I thought this was relevant:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-taleb-heres-what-people-dont-understand-about-ebola-2014-10#ixzz3GdSErRhN
The argument that the US should be more worried about a disease like cancer which has more stable rates of infection than Ebola does currently is a logic that Taleb calls "the empiricism of the idiots."
The basic idea: The growth of Ebola infection is nonlinear, so the number of people catching it doubles every 20 days. Because of this, you have to act quickly at the source of infections, he says. "The closer you are to the source, the more effective you are at slowing it down ... it is much more rational to prevent it now than later."
***
"If you have to overreact about something, this is the place to overreact," he said.
Louisiana1976
(3,962 posts)disease.
nomorenomore08
(13,324 posts)within a fairly short period of time.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Nevertheless as Mr. Taleb points out, we are better off acting with an overabundance of caution around this thing, no matter how irritating some people may find it to hear about it.
Not taking the infectiousness of ebola as seriously as it should have been, has likely been what infected 2 front line health care workers with this disease.
And had the authorities, both local and global, "overreacted" to this outbreak back in March, it wouldn't be the problem it is, would it?
Yo_Mama
(8,303 posts)That's the only way to suppress the transmission - find all the exposed and quarantine them. Without medicines or vaccines, it's only quarantine. But quarantine is only effective when you know all the vectors and can block them, and after cases rise to a certain level, it will no longer work.
Taleb is entirely correct. Also it's the same thing we do with TB, esp, MDR TB. That's standard public health. We do contact tracing for STDs and other troublesome infections. Of course we need to do the same for Ebola.
pnwmom
(108,977 posts)was with our first case. Don't worry, it's not very contagious, the health authorities will quickly contain this.
They said this about LIBERIA. And we can see how well that went.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And frankly all the "stop panicking herp derp" crap is just annoying.
laundry_queen
(8,646 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)we're not in the clear.
By the way, there are many thousands of cases in Liberia today. How many cases did they have in April, 2014?
One.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Which is a good thing.
Until the next case, or cases come in.
kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)Exponential growth is a concept that most can never begin to comprehend. That, combined with their belief in myth over reality, is a bad combination.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Hugin
(33,140 posts)Coaches.
kestrel91316
(51,666 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)or rate of growth are developed using base 2 rather than base 10.
And yet almost everyone can use the rule of 72 to either build dreams of retiring as billionaires or to see their futures as underneath the crushing weight of compounding interest of school loans.
Yet, many don't use the rule of 72 because they can gather all the news they need about their prospects via social media.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Highly infectious microbial agents are exponential threats, that is why they are considered suitable for making WMDs (some of them).
And that is a completely different sort of threat from anything which is not highly infectious (exponential).
Nuclear explosions are caused by an exponential cascade effect too ...
And that does make it VERY worthwhile to nip things in the bud, for two reasons:
1.) The longer you wait, the bigger the problem can get, and it can get bigger very fast, explosively fast.
2.) Evolution, the bigger it gets, the faster the agents can evolve new tricks.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Actually the ebola virus seems to be doing a fine job of replicating itself with its current design, given the numbers.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)sendero
(28,552 posts)... despite the sanctimonious chidings of the "you have to swim in their blood or vomit" crowd.
There is absolutely no reason to NOT have an abundance of caution about this disease.
bananas
(27,509 posts)MattBaggins
(7,904 posts)the size of the earth in 48 hours.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)that's the ticket.
KMOD
(7,906 posts)Panic and disregard.
It's a very serious disease.
The panic we've witnessed in some instances in not helpful.
Nor is the disregard of it.
I really think we should have taken advantage of the nurse's flight to educate people on how you can, and cannot catch this virus.
But I also agree that we should take more preventative steps to not allow more of this disease into our country.
It's crazy to watch people taking sides, like this is a political event. It's not! It's a global humanitarian crisis. Yet for some, it's either all panic or all nonsense to them.
We really need to find the in between.
We also need to focus on where the real problem is. And that is in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Protect Americans, protect West Africans, and continue to do all we can to nip this in the bud.
But please, no more panic, and no more dismissal. This really is a crisis. Perhaps not in our own country, but it is in West Africa. And if we are not paying attention, it will spread.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I think having small clusters of cases here, and attendant freakouts, watch and wait lists, and overreactions, is bound to be a distraction from where the major tragedy is.
Which is why it's all the more important we do all we can to keep additional cases from coming to the US... Keeping the virus out and fighting it over there are not mutually exclusive.
NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)NutmegYankee
(16,199 posts)If it had an R0 like the common cold or measles, we'd be screwed. But an R0 of 1.5-2 is doable.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)There's a pretty big range, though, between "shut up about it, there's nothing to worry about, it's no big deal" and "We're ALL GONNA DIE".
I hope the curve bends downward on the infections. I think most would agree that if we start seeing the more frightening numbers in West Africa- hundreds of thousands or more cases, we're in uncharted territory bigtime.