Harvard Institute of Politics says Millennials breaking for GOP.

[Savannahmann]

I honestly don't know how many more times I'll have to say it. We have to earn the votes. We have to give people something to vote for, instead of praying that our enemy commits suicide.

http://www.iop.harvard.edu/october-29-2014-fall-2014-survey?utm_source=website&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Fall2014Survey

Cambridge, MA – A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, finds slightly more than half (51%) of young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November prefer a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control – a significant departure from IOP polling findings before the last midterm elections (Sept. 2010 – 55%: prefer Democrat control; 43%: prefer Republican control). The cohort – 26% of whom report they will “definitely” vote in the midterms – appear up-for-grabs to both political parties and could be a critical swing vote in many races in November.

But the bad news doesn't stop there.

The IOP’s fall poll finds young whites disapprove of President Obama’s job performance by more than a two-to-one margin (31% approve, 65% disapprove) while African-Americans continue to show a strong loyalty to the president, giving him a 78 percent approval rating (17% disapprove). This approval gap (47 percentage points) among Whites and African-Americans is significantly wider than the 36 percentage point gap in Obama’s approval rating between African-American and whites found in fall 2009 IOP polling. On the question of which party should control Congress, young whites preferred Republicans over Democrats by a 53 to 40 percentage point margin. African-Americans, meanwhile, said by a 68 to 23 point margin that they preferred Democrats running the legislative branch. Among Hispanics, Democrats also fared better, with 59 percent preferring a Democrat-controlled Congress with 34 percent wanting Republican control.

I said this was bad news, let me explain. 93% of Blacks voted for President Obama in 2012. That means that the best that can be said is that we've lost about 25% of the black community.

The Democratic Party perfect opposing party candidates are best represented by the old Monty Python movie Life of Brian.

When the Republicans aren't willing to actually do that, we have a fight on our hands. Something we're utterly unprepared for.

Um, GOTV, or something. Go team blue.

[pkdu]

1. One small but important clarification ....

Many of those "young whites" on the " disapprove of Obama" tally....are actually NEVER going to vote for a Repub. (many are on this website)

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

3. I don't know from 'many', or whether they have to be 'young' to disapprove

but yeah, there's no nuance in 'approve/disapprove' - it doesn't say whether those who disapprove are to the left or the right. Which lack of nuance is often used as an excuse for politicians to move right, sadly, since they can pretend voters are saying they're 'too far left' if they 'disapprove'.

[pkdu]

5. Completely agree...the raw number is used to make candidates move "right" nt

[customerserviceguy]

4. That's fine

but we need those who turned out in 2008 and 2012 to come out again.

I'll know in the evening of Election night how its going. I specifically remember two years ago when my lady and I went to vote. Our precinct is predominately white, but at our polling place, there is a nearby precinct with predominantly African-American residents. I recall that there was a large line to wait to vote in their precinct, and all of the voters were AA, but my lady and I walked right up to the table to sign in, no line in our precinct.

It will be informative to see if the same dynamic repeats itself this year.

[pkdu]

7. Agreed . We need same or better turnout...heck , I'm resigned (too late for this election)...

To become a citizen. GOTV 2016 baby.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

12. "we need those who turned out in 2008 and 2012 to come out again."

What struck me was the stat on African Americans. 68% sounds overwhelming except one one remembers the African American community went better than 90% for the Democrats in 2008 and 2012. That's not a few votes bleeding away, that's arterial spray.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. I really wish they'd actually ask 'why'?

I hate how polls give you such a narrow view of something, without actually explaining it.

WHY do millennials prefer a Republican Congress? What benefit do they think they see in such? Why exactly are they blaming our current problems on Dems as opposed to Repubs?

[Nuclear Unicorn]

13. Agreed.

[Fred Sanders]

6. The poll also had this analysis, contrary to this one.

The interest of young Americans in the healthcare issue is demonstrated by the poll: 39.2% of young voters polled in the Harvard Public Opinion Project said healthcare was “very important” in deciding who to vote for, a proportion greater than any other issue. This figure is especially high compared with only 29.6% who said immigration is “very important,” and 24.2% who said foreign policy is “very important.”

In total, 76.1% of young voters said the healthcare issue was “very important” or “somewhat important” in deciding whom to vote for in the upcoming election. Only 64.7% responded the same way on immigration, and 51.4% on race relations even after a summer of protests, riots, and national attention on Ferguson, MO.

On the issue of healthcare, young voters seem to trust democrats by a margin of 32.7% to 25.2%, while the rest are unsure. It is interesting to note that young voters trust Democrats about as much as the rest of the American public when it comes to healthcare policy. Among all Americans, Democrats have a slim advantage of 36% to 32% on healthcare among respondents.

This Democratic margin on healthcare among young voters should be seen as a positive sign for Democratic candidates, who are still seen as leading on the issue even after the late 2013 healthcare.gov botched rollout. Since then, healthcare reform has made up some ground in public opinion due to positive press for the Medicaid state expansion.

[calimary]

8. Aw man...

And I'm fully expecting DEBBIE to go dancing along like nothing's wrong, and we've got 'em in the bag and there's no reason to reach out to 'em cuz they'll always be stuck voting Dem. She'll ignore the rising tide the way the anti-science dickheads are ignoring global warming - until she and the DNC wake up someday and realize the water's up to their hips.

WHAT ARE WE DOING TO SECURE THIS HUGE AND INCREASINGLY POWERFUL DEMOGRAPHIC AND ENSURING THAT IT ALWAYS BELONGS TO US? Besides taking them completely for granted, that is?

[abelenkpe]

9. Offshoring good paying jobs and burdening them with massive student loans

So they'll never afford a home or family.

[virtualobserver]

10. that poll sounds like utter nonsense

23 percent of AA's preferred Repubs running the legislative branch.

fantasyland

[Savannahmann]

16. Perhaps. Perhaps indeed

St. Louis Black Democrats endorse the Republican candidate.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/steve-giegerich/coalition-of-black-st-louis-county-democrats-endorses-republican-for/article_6cb9f7d2-7583-5578-8112-e40fdbc06c49.html

Black Newspaper endorses Rick Snyder (Republican) for Governor.

http://michronicleonline.com/2014/10/29/our-endorsement-give-snyder-a-second-term/

How about a Black Pastor in Chicago who is getting death threats and charity money stolen from his church for endorsing the Republican?

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Pastor-Corey-Brooks-responds-to-negative-sun-times-column-on-his-rauner-endorsement-280649652.html

Should I continue? What this really represents beyond the trend, is that the Democratic Party has been taking the various communities for granted. We do nothing for them, and then laugh and giggle and ask what are thy going to do? Will they vote Republican?

Yes. They will. Or they just won't vote for the Democrats, and that is nearly as bad. Worse, the Republicans this election season haven't repeated the mistakes of the last, which is the stupid sound bite screw up. No Real Rape quotes to run through the media. Worse, the Republicans are serious about their outreach to the Black Community.

http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2014/10/black_ohio_newspaper_call_post_endorses_republican_governor_john_kasich.html

So while we take the Black Community for granted, the Republicans are reaching out and doing something for the most disadvantaged among us. So are we still talking about fantasyland? In another election cycle or two, the Black Community is going to be breaking for the Democratic party, but only by the barest of margins. After that, if things don't change, who knows.

Black Republicans, especially people like Herman Cain, and Dr. Ben Carson are being noticed. Don't think they aren't. Mia Love is another example of the changing demographic.

Again, shall I continue?

The world, she's a changing my friend. If you bother to look around, you will see that the statements I've been making for a long time are very true. We Democrats have to earn the votes. We have to go out and fight for the people. We can't spend two years blaming the Republicans and then go and relax expecting to get re-elected on half assed campaign issues like the "War on Women."

Especially when that isn't working.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

17. How

Are Republicans "reaching out" to the AA community? There are always a few African Americans whom endorse/vote for Republicans just like there are some young Republicans and women and Hispanics whom support the Republican Party for some mysterious reason (usually because they're part of the "have mine" group of people in this country). In no way, does this group of people constitute a newfound groundswell support of GOP "policies" IMHO.

[Savannahmann]

18. You should have looked at some of the links

There were several, and each one was used to back up a specific assertion.

For the outreach. Let's look at one, and then take it to another link. The Call and Post, a traditional Black Newspaper. They endorsed John Kasich. John Kasich the Republican Governor of Ohio. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/oh/ohio_governor_kasich_vs_fitzgerald-3758.html

They list several reasons, but this is the biggie.

When it came down to the monstrosity of monetary benefits and contracts associated with the quickly approaching Opportunity Corridor in Cleveland, Kasich went above and beyond expectations. Opportunities like the Opportunity Corridor usually means “inopportunity” for us, but not in this case. Of the $267 million in construction contracts on the Corridor, Kasich set aside a staggering 20 percent for minority-owned and disadvantaged firms. That’s about $22.7 million dollars “specifically” for Black-owned businesses, not to mention an additional half a million dollars thrown in for job training of area residents. And even this came with some maneuvering from him on our behalf with the Federal Government and Turnpike Board.

The Republican went way above expectations and earmarked twenty percent of the contracts for Black owned businesses. Way above expectations to say the least. That is the kind of outreach I'm talking about. Is John Kasich the stereotypical Republican? No, but there are very few of them left.

Rand Paul campaigned in Detroit recently. http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2014/10/republicans_try_pushing_into_d.html

While Residents are seeing their water turned off, Rand shows up and talks about how his economic plan would help the city. It would bring jobs to the city, manufacturing jobs, which generally speaking pay pretty good.

So the outreach is happening. The Republicans are putting in the effort, some are putting in more, some are putting in less. But they are putting in some effort, and as the poll from Harvard shows, it's having an effect. We'll have to wait for the exit polls, but we can't take the Black community for granted any more. We have to earn those votes, we have to earn the votes of the people. We can't just sit back laughing that the Blacks would never vote for the Republican. They are. The black community is starting to see that there are a handful of Republicans that are going to pay attention, and they are going to respond. Because if you give them a choice between someone paying attention, and someone paying lip service, which way are the people going to go?

The Latino Community is rebelling against the Democrats, because we've been paying lip service to them. We've lost a lot of support in the Hispanic community, double digit loss of support. 71% of Hispanics voted for President Obama in 2012. Today, it is 59% that wants the Democratic Party in charge. These numbers are denounced as impossible, but they are reflected in polls across the nation. Daily Kos sees it. Huffington Post sees it. Democrats doing poorly in elections all over.

There is an old adage. You can't fix it if you don't know what's broken. I'm trying to tell the Democrats, and the Democratic Party what is broken, so we can fix it. I've been trying all year. Those who are dismissive now, will be shocked on election day. They'll be all over denouncing the idiots who voted for the Republicans. They'll blame the media, they'll blame the candidates, and they'll blame everyone but the party.

We have got to stop making the classic mistakes. We have to stop pretending that the Republicans are idiots who are going to roll over and die just because we hate them. They want to win, and they are working for it. Right now, it's a minority of the Black Community that is leaving us for the Republicans. But how long can we hemorrhage that kind of support and stay viable as a national party? How long before we are the fringe party with a token of representation in Congress?

They are not idiots. They are wrong on a number of issues IMO. But they are not idiots. We have to take them seriously, and we have to pay attention and meet them argument for argument, debate for debate, and we have to earn those votes with hard work and tireless dedication. We can never let our supporters think that they don't matter. We can never turn our backs on those who got us where we are. We are losing support, and it's hurting us. Do we denounce those who leave as traitors, or do we work to get them back?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

20. So

A few Republicans are not total jerks and do a few good deeds and minorities are supposed to swoon over them? Where is the evidence that Dems are just paying "lip service" to minorities? Was getting bipartisan immigration reform through the Senate "lip service"? Which party killed comprehensive immigration reform in this Congress? What more can Dems do for minorities with the lack of ability to control anything legislatively in places like Michigan or even Ohio? Dems only control the Senate in Congress right now. What has Obama not done that is within his power? The idea that Dems keep minorities on some kind of "plantation" and just pay lip service to them is a right wing trope/meme with no real basis in reality. I'm sure that Dems could do better in some areas but, generally, there is little or no substance behind Republican rhetoric when it comes to minority concerns. Has Rand Paul been fighting against voter id?

[Savannahmann]

21. Wow you haven't been paying attention lately have you?

I mention that because there were a lot of discussions lately about traditional dem supporters just staying home. I highlighted one just yesterday, here's the link to the news story.

Lie to me once, shame on you. Lie to me five times, what do you expect us to do? Obama and the Democrats who supported and encouraged him have little credibility among Latino voters. Obama may have done more to suppress the Latino vote through broken promises than any hostile action taken by the Republicans.

In the meantime, the handful of non total asshole Republicans you mention, are making inroads, and making them look good, while we look inept, or worse, unconcerned.

Let's take the Latino question. President Obama made a big bet, the bet was that he could force the Republicans into taking action if he threatened to take unilateral executive action on Immigration. Instead of folding, the Republicans called his bet. He had to lay his cards on the table. He had to back up his threat.

In the mean time, Democrats were screaming not to do it because they realized by the end of the summer that this was going to be a tough campaign season. So instead of taking the action promised, President Obama sat and waited in order to gain a handful of the Racist votes. I said at the time, that he would not do it, not then, and not in November. Because states like Georgia are going to have runoff elections, in Georgia that takes place in January. We don't want to cut Michelle Nunn's throat do we?

So time goes by, and the President says he'll act after the election, but he won't. The Latino community knows it. They've been lied to how many times? Now, if he does take action in November, which I don't think he will, then he looks like a coward for not doing it before, and instead of being grateful, the Latino population thinks they've been thrown a bone when it couldn't cost President Obama anything. They will be looking at it like table scraps.

Come January, when the last of the runoff elections are over, I don't think President Obama will do anything either. Because that is the traditional start of the "exploratory committee" season. When people start talking about how they are going to run for President. Do you think that Hillary will not get on the phone and beg the White House not to do something that will be an anchor on her campaign for the entire year? I'm betting she will, because she's already setting herself up for the more Conservative and the inevitability arguments are cranking up full throttle.

Look at the Polls. We are in serious danger of losing the Senate. NY Times says 68% probability that Republicans will win. They aren't alone. Daily Kos, Huffington Post, 538, and all of the polling firms say the same thing. The question now is if the Republicans will get fifty one seats, or fifty two.

Here's the dirty little secret, the Republicans want President Obama to take unilateral action. That way they can have the hot heads like King of New York out railing against it, while others start the outreach to the Latino community, and siphon off even more of our support. The Hot heads shore up the support with the far right, while the others create inroads to the community.

More proof? OK, but you might not like it.

#t=51

The numbers and types of messages like that are growing and expanding. If we do nothing, we will get nothing in return.

[joeglow3]

33. Problem is democrats are not reaching out

Their vote is taken for granted and they are largely ignored.

[virtualobserver]

22. there are always AA conservatives

but if 23% of AA Millennials are aligned with Cain and Carson, our nation is in deep trouble

[Prophet 451]

11. That's faintly horrifying

That said, I still don't see how anyone with a functioning brain can look at the parade of frothing madmen the GOP fields and think they belong in the world's most powerful legislative body.

[Ykcutnek]

14. Not this Millennial.

I owe a lot to Democratic policies.

Not one GOP policy has made my life easier.

And if this is about the libertarian strain of the GOP, they deserve the slaughter to which they're being led.

[marions ghost]

25. +++

[DemocraticWing]

15. Sometimes polls are bad.

This seems like one of those times.

[Vinca]

19. People deserve what they get when they vote GOP. (But we don't.)

Hope they enjoy the high interest rate on their student loans, lack of control over their reproductive rights and working until they have a foot in the grave because the age of SS has been raised.

[Savannahmann]

26. Raising the age on Social Security?

You mean like that real right wing standard bearer John Delaney? http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/12/dem-lawmaker-higher-retirement-age-budget-deal/ Republicans aren't the only ones talking about raising the age on Social Security.

[Vinca]

27. You realize you're citing the "Moonie Times," right?

But I correct my statement anyway. Republicans want to do away with Social Security and Medicare entirely.

[CJCRANE]

23. Being disappointed with the Dems and voting Repub is like...

Being disappointed with the doctors in Arkham Asylum and voting for the lunatics instead.

[Youdontwantthetruth]

24. Fools, if the Millennials want to vote GOP so be it, they are the ones who will really get screwed

over by them, go for it Millennials!

[virtualobserver]

28. millennials-have-landlines? -sure-they-do kal penn

http://crooksandliars.com/2014/10/millennials-have-landlines-sure-they-do

[Savannahmann]

29. Oh?

Well, obviously they didn't think of that.

Oh wait, they did.

http://www.people-press.org/methodology/sampling/cell-phones/

http://www.people-press.org/methodology/our-survey-methodology-in-detail/

http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/abc-news-polling-methodology-standards/story?id=145373

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/poll-methodology

Should i continue? The polling companies call cell phones now.

[virtualobserver]

32. some polling companies do....

but who knows if they are getting the weighting right.



In my business, I see contact information for about 2000 people a week, nationwide. An amazingly high percentage of those people have a cell phone number from the state that they used to live in and no land line. One more twist in an already complicated polling environment.

In this poll
"At 23 percent, Congressional Republican approval is approximately half of the president’s (Republican disapproval is 72%)."

That doesn't sound like a group that is driven to vote in the Repubs

[Savannahmann]

35. What is the Democratic Congressional approval?

It's only marginally higher than the Republicans. SO we're slightly more popular than the group that is slightly more popular than Herpes.

Republicans taking big lead in early voting in Colorado. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COLORADO_ELECTION_EARLY_VOTES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-10-31-18-46-58

Here's an article from the NY Times that says we're counting on our message to resonate with voters. Our message of War on Women by the way.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/01/us/democrats-count-on-edge-with-women-to-limit-election-losses.html?_r=0

While Senator Udall is being killed by his focus on the War on Women. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-31/democrats-women-problem-in-colorado

Wednesday morning, the dust will settle, we'll have two or three runoff elections that will decide the Senate. Georgia is a highly probable Runoff, Kansas, and Louisiana. Possibly others, but those three are high probability of runoffs. So do you think we can keep the motivation alive for another two months? Especially if President Obama does act unilaterally on immigration?

Come on man, let's be serious. We've skated in this campaign season waiting for the Republicans to give us a "real rape" quote to destroy them with. Instead, we've given them the quotes, most recently from Senator Landrieu.

So our message in the south is. "You're all sexists and racists if you don't vote for me. If you do vote for me, you're still sexist and racist, just more tolerably so."

[virtualobserver]

36. all of your concerns are clearly valid...

but I believe that the women of Colorado are even more intelligent than Margaret Carlson gives them credit for. We will see.

I doubt Landrieu would have won anyway, and she spoke the truth. I live in Texas and it is just as true here.

All I can say is this. Everytime that I give up on the American people, they surprise me. I have a feeling that Tuesday will be a very positive surprise.

[MineralMan]

30. 'It's All Over. There Is no Hope.' Pre-Election Agitprop.

Why bother voting? The polls say that all the young people are voting for Republicans. See, some poll had some results.

This is tiresome.

[Savannahmann]

31. What has my message been all year?

What drum have I been beating all year long?

Hasn't it been that we should A) Campaign on issues and especially issues that the populace is worried/interested in? B) Govern according to those campaign issues.

So what happens when the election comes around, the outcome I've been warning was a real possibility back in April no less, here's proof.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024770894

All anyone on the Democratic side has been saying since the year began is GOTV. None of the issues that were sure to get the vote out have resonated with the public. None. Not Citizens United. Not the Republican Vote to oppose Universal Background checks. Not the Government shutdown. Not one of those things won the election for us. NONE OF THEM.

All year, all you've been saying is GOTV. I've been begging the Democrats to run on issues, and it turns out that 51% of the people are deciding their vote based upon issues over party or identity politics.. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025735745

So now you're posting that I'm doing harm to the party by posting the information that I warned was coming all year long. I said that keeping the senate was going to be a tough fight, and we had to run ON ISSUES and get people to vote for us.

So I've been beating this drum all year long. Oh, let me put this in now in case I forget to sign off with the de-rigueur GOTV man. We're team blue, and team red sucks.

We could have steamrolled the fuckers this year, but we did nothing. If we hold the Senate this year, we will be lucky as fuck to have done it. While I hope that is the outcome, it's rapidly approaching the point equal to hoping that the numbers 413 come up on the lottery.

We can win in 2016, but if we're going to have a real chance, we have to get serious, and campaign on issues that the people want, and that they will support. That is first and foremost addressing the economy. Next, populist issues (I know, I've been singing this song for months too) like demilitarization of police. But we won't do it. We'll blame weak GOTV movements, at least some here will, and we'll go into 2016 with the same attitude that we approached this year. We'll pretend that the Republicans will self destruct. While in reality, it's our politicians who are self destructing, and people here are cheering them for it. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025739866

So excuse me if I refuse to sit silent while my warnings are approaching fruition. Because I want to make sure that the lessons we learn from this are the right ones. It isn't the crap that the voters were racist/sexist/fearful. It's that the Republicans paid lip service to issues, and refused to co-operate in giving us a quote like Real Rape to bludgeon them with.

[JaneyVee]

34. Meanwhile, a month ago I saw a poll saying millenials are socialists.

[RobertEarl]

37. Of course the kids are scared

Who, in their right mind is not freaking out about the future?

Environment: Dems are speaking out about the calamity. Pubs say nothing to worry about. Pubs win.

Taxes: Dems say we need to raise taxes. Pubs say lower them. Pubs win.

Equality: Pubs are in power and equality is coming on. Pubs get credit because they are in power. Look, Mom votes republican, they must be ok with women? Right?

The media is on the pubs side. Don't even try to tell me they aren't, and they know the above, so they sell the kids this idea that the Dems are running around crazy (we have them doing it right here on DU) and the pubs say: Every little thing is gonna be alright - don't you worry.

No wonder some of the kids are hornswaggled into wanting the pub message. No wonder at all. It has ever been thus.