My Senate predictions for 11/4

[WI_DEM]

On election day I believe the Democrats will lose South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas & Colorado in the Senate races.
The GOP will lose Kansas to an independent.

The end of election night will be 49 Democrats (including 2 indies) & 48 Republicans.

Two races Louisiana & Georgia will go to run-offs & 1 independent (Orman in KS) will wait to see which party he will caucus with.

In key races I see Shaheen winning in NH, Hagen holding on in NC (where early voting has seen a strong minority/Democratic turnout), Begich narrowly taking Alaska (thanks in part to natives) & Braley holding Iowa--he is behind narrowly in most polls, but early voting from pollsters indicate he is doing well. The Q-poll had him winning early voters by 21-points with 33% of all ballots cast.

If this is true GA & LA will be crucial. If the GOP won both run-offs they would have a 50-49 edge. This is where Orman comes into play. He could go with the GOP to provide the crucial 51st vote or he could take seriously what they have said during the campaign that they wouldn't even want him to caucus with them. I'm sure he would be courted by both parties. But if he decided to go with the Dems the Senate would be 50-50 & Biden would cast the tie vote on which party organizes the Senate. However, I don't necessarily think Dems will lose both GA & LA.

[NM_Birder]

1. why include 2 independents in with Democrats ?

[WI_DEM]

2. because both Senators Sanders (I-VT) & King (I-ME) caucus with the Dems.

[NM_Birder]

3. I've enjoyed Sanders everytime I've heard him on TH show,

don't understand why he is independent and not Dem ?
Do you ?

[Samantha]

14. He is a Democratic socialist

and that is why he separates himself as an Independent.

Sam

[NM_Birder]

16. that's a little disapointing.

I don't understand. He calls himself an Independent, adheres to Democratic principals, yet is a "Democratic Socialist" behind closed doors ?

I've never heard him claim to be a "Democratic Socialist", if he is but won't admit it then he is just another politician hiding his political agenda in order to get people to vote for him.

just another politician I thought I could understand, guess there will be a politician someday, that is what he says and does what he says.

[dsc]

19. He ran as one for years

including on the ballot.

[Samantha]

21. I have heard him say it a number of times in interviews

but he is classified as an Independent in Congress because one must be classified under one of 3 labels: D's, R's and I's.

Sam

[NM_Birder]

24. and there is the disappointment.

one must not be who they really are if they expect to succeed in politics. Instead, one must be "classified" and display what will get you elected.

[Bortman33]

26. Are you having a problem reading

what others are writing. Bernie has been a socialist forever, and a Democratic Socialist at that. He has never hidden behind anything and has always been a staunch advocate for the working man, universal health care aka single payer, regulated capitalism, women's rights, . . . .

[KingCharlemagne]

17. I know Democratic Socialists, Democratic Socialists are friends of mine and, Samantha, Sen.

Sanders is no Democratic Socialist.

A 'Social Democrat' arguably, progressive certainly, but at least in public not a Socialist. (Socialists advocate the public ownership of the means of production.)

[Samantha]

20. I am just reporting what I have heard him personally say

so, of course, I am not going to argue with you.

Sam

[KingCharlemagne]

23. Well, I was alluding to the famous exchange between

Sens. Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle, back in 1988, a moment that shall, Dukakis' shortcomings notwithstanding, live in infamy. Definitely not intending to be argumentative. I suck at YouTube and the like, but I'll wager there are clips of that exchange out there. Still worth watching probably to see a smirky Quayle get served by his elder

Now, were Sanders to call for the TBTF banks to be nationalized and their assets expropriated, why then we could start talking 'Socialism.' I like Sanders personally and he tells as much truth as can be told, I suppose. It will make for an interesting primary season indeed, should he choose to drop his hat into the Democratic ring.

[Samantha]

25. I like him quite a bit myself

And yes, it will make for a VERY interesting primary season.

Sam

[branford]

11. King could decide to switch and caucus with the Republicans.

His loyalty is not virtually guaranteed like Bernie Sanders.

[WI_DEM]

12. he could

but I don't expect he will. He even just endorsed the Dem running for Governor of Maine.

[former9thward]

22. Odds are King will caucus with whoever is the majority party.

That way he gets a committee chairmanship. And if he is the 51st vote then a bunch of other favors too.

[cali]

4. I think that's a pretty good assessment. I agree that Begich will pull it out in Alaska

I also think Shaheen will win in NH. But I don't feel so sanguine about Braley in Iowa. I think Ernst will win. It freaks me out, but I think there's a real possibility that this will be a republican wave.

[Calista241]

5. Constitutional question:

What happens if the independents choose not to caucus with either party?

I can imagine stranger things happening.

[cali]

7. then they're out in the cold. and no one wants to be completely marginalized

I can't imagine that happening.

[Takket]

8. i would assume the largest caucus is the majority party...

[tritsofme]

13. It really is an interesting question. Unlike the House, the Senate is a continuing body

There is more continuity, only a third of members are up for reelection in any cycle.

Other than very poor optics, in a new Senate with 50R 49D 1 unaligned IND, there would be nothing stopping Democrats from refusing to assent to a new organizing resolution, and they could keep things as they are now.

More likely there would be a deal like we saw with Daschle and Lott in 2000, where the parties would agree to new organization midsession if there is any change.

But generally, the larger party will get the opportunity to organize majority leadership.

[CK_John]

9. I'm not with you on Iowa, NH, GA, or LA.

[WI_DEM]

10. you believe that GA & LA won't go to run-off?

[CK_John]

15. Yes.

[Robbins]

18. Here Is how I see the senate races

Alaska-Leans Dem
Co-Tossup-Dem could still win
SD-leans Republican but a upset Is still possable If you forced me to call it for one side i would say republican but i am not 100
% sure of that as I once was
MT-Republican pickup
Michigan-Democratic maintain
Kansas-tossup with slight Independent lean
NH-Dem win
Virginia-Dem win
WV-Republican Pickup
Iowa-Tossup
KT-Tossup
LA-Tossup-It's going to runoff In December
Arkansas-Likely Republican pickup
Georgia-Tossup it likely goes to runoff In January
NC-Leans Dem

[Blue_In_AK]

27. I think Begich is going to win, too.

He's been cleaning Sullivan's clock in the debates, and, as you say, the Native Alaskans are almost uniformly behind him. This is only the third time in history that the Alaska Federation of Natives has endorsed a candidate. Begich's campaign claims to have knocked on every door in rural Alaska.