The Democrats' Ground Game May Be Falling Short in Iowa
Democrats have long contended that volunteers like Pollard, massed into a fiercely disciplined army and deployed in unprecedented numbers across states like this, will help them beat the odds in this difficult election year. But so far, the results look discouraging. Iowans have been voting for more than a month already—they can vote early in person at polling places or by requesting and returning a mail-in ballot—and it is Republicans who are encouraged by the numbers.
Early voting, which may account for as much as half the total Iowa vote, has traditionally been a Democratic strength. This year, for the first time in Iowa history, that changed. As of last Wednesday, registered Republicans accounted for more early voters than registered Democrats, by a margin of 305 ballots—a tiny edge, but the first time the GOP had ever led in early votes. The lead has since been reversed, and as of Sunday, 124,000 registered Democrats and 122,000 registered Republicans had voted.
But that Democratic edge pales in comparison to past elections. In 2012, when President Obama won the state, about 67,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans voted early. Even in 2010, when the state's Democratic governor was getting creamed by his Republican challenger, about 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted early in Iowa—but more Republicans voted on Election Day, erasing Democrats' early advantage. (These statistics don't take into account independent voters, and they account only for which party voters register with, not which they actually vote for. But both parties watch them closely as an indicator of their mobilization efforts.)
Iowa Republicans worked for this result—the state party has poured $1 million into early-vote activation—but they are actually a little shocked to see this much success. "I wish I could tell you this was the master plan, to actually pull ahead in the early vote," Jeff Kaufmann, the mustached community-college professor who chairs the Iowa GOP, tells me. "I would have been happy if we were only behind by 20,000." If Democrats fail to produce either a massive late surge of early voters or an unprecedented Election Day turnout, it is rapidly becoming mathematically impossible for them to win the state, Republican operatives say. In 2010, the GOP won Election Day by 9 percentage points. "The only way Joni loses is if the Democrats are doing something we can't see," David Kochel, a strategist for Braley's opponent, Joni Ernst, tells me.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/10/in-iowa-democrats-midterm-election-ground-game-may-be-falling-short/381998/
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