Republicans Have a Math Problem

[wyldwolf]

Glen Bolger and Neil Newhouse: "Democrats like to accuse Republicans of being bad at science, but in fact we're really bad at math. Winning in a non-presidential-turnout year, when older and white voters make up a larger percentage of the electorate, should convince no one that we've fixed our basic shortfalls with key electoral groups, including minorities and younger voters."

"Assuming that the Democrats replicate their 2012 electoral success with minority voters two years from now, and assuming that Hispanics grow as a percentage of the overall electorate, which they will, we calculate that Democrats will already have almost half (24 percent) of the votes they need to win a majority of Americans in 2016. To win 50.1 percent of the popular vote, we estimate, Republicans will need nearly 64 percent of the white vote -- which would be a record for a non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate. Remember, Mitt Romney and John McCain won 59 percent and 55 percent of the white vote, respectively; and even in victory, George W. Bush took only 58 percent of the white vote in 2004."

(Interesting take from Republicans who see the writing on the wall)

[LonePirate]

1. Repubs will be lucky to reach McCain's white vote numbers if Hillary runs.

2016 is going to be a very bad year for them.

[tuhaybey]

2. The aren't even trying

I think the truth is that the decided it was too hard to fix and just decided to think about the midterms instead. Clearly, they are sticking with the all white male GOP strategy. When we hear that, we think that means that the GOP only has a couple midterms of being viable left and then it is done, so that seems irrational. But, Republicans don't think about it that way. They firmly believe that the Democrats' policies are so terrible that it is just a matter of time until the public catches on and comes running back to the GOP. In their view, the long term future is a lock for the GOP- as long as it doesn't get too closely associated with the coming Democratic Party disaster, in which case it risks being thrown out with the Democrats.

It's nuts of course. In reality, the economy performs better under Democrats. Dramatically so. Even more dramatically if you look at the change in unemployment rate under the parties.

[BeyondGeography]

3. You're right, but we also have a representative democracy problem

Taken as a whole, the estimate tells the story of a Republican-leaning year, as GOP voters have consistently expressed greater enthusiasm, and independents lean to the GOP, too. But there are profound structural factors underlying the GOP's hold on the House. Chief among these is voters' partisanship, as most districts consistently back a single party, and crossover voting for the House has all but vanished in recent cycles. Additionally, heavily gerrymandered districts in almost every state that are drawn to distinctly favor one party over the other.

There are other demographic factors to add to that, such as the fact that Democrats live in more densely-populated areas with lopsided majorities, so that their voting strength is not spread evenly across districts. The staunch partisanship of districts has added to the difficulty of flipping a seat, even open ones (less than one in 10 seats have flipped over the last 10 years, and most of the ones that have happened in the "wave" years of 2006 and 2010.) Consequently, the parties simply did not fund challengers or contest many House seats this year from the get-go. Many analysts (including CBS News) had perhaps 40 or 50 seats, or 10 to 15 percent of the House, on their radar as potentially competitive districts at the start of 2014. Today, our simulation finds less than 10 percent of the House are competitive races.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-likely-to-add-seats-in-the-house/

[louis-t]

4. No problem, they'll just figure out a way to stop

brown people from voting altogether. I'm reading repugs are saying if they take back the Senate, they will "cooperate" with Dems to 'get stuff done'.

[upaloopa]

5. They still talk about trickle down success

when there is every bit of evidence that shows it is a disaster. The repubs are believers in their ideology like flies like shit. No matter what the truth is all this country needs is a stronger dose of right wing ideology.

[Motown_Johnny]

6. They have known this for years, the thing is...

...that the ones in deep red districts or states need to win their primaries by saying and doing the things that drive minorities from their party.

The ones in swing districts or states are the only ones who care about the demographics and even they still need to win their primaries with far right votes.


Here is a post of mine from 2012, which quotes an article from 2010... there are no surprises here. We all know what is going to happen by 2020 and beyond. It is now inevitable. (note, this article is from a right wing publication)


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002975365




The Future Of The Republican Party (Retroactively from 2010)

I think we need to hold out for eight more years. If we can keep their voter suppression and rigged voting machines in check for just eight more years we just might have a chance at breaking the back of the Republican party and finally moving this country forward in the direction it was intended to move in, toward equality and fairness for all it's citizens.



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010031101/

^snip^




The increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate over the next decade will have major consequences for electoral competition. If the Democratic Party is able to maintain anything close to the overwhelming advantage among nonwhite voters that it enjoyed in 2008, Republican candidates will need to win a considerably larger share of the white vote than their party’s candidates did in 2008 or even 2004 in order to remain competitive in national elections. Under these circumstances, even a 60 percent share of the white vote would not be enough to give a Republican candidate a majority of the popular vote and the last Republican presidential candidate to win more than 60 percent of the white vote was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

An alternative path to victory for Republicans in future national elections would involve seeking to expand their Party’s support among nonwhite voters. By winning a larger share of the nonwhite vote, a Republican candidate could be elected with considerably less than 60 percent of the white vote. But this would require the GOP to move away from its conservative base and closer to the ideological center because nonwhite voters tend to be strong supporters of increased spending on social programs and activist government.

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Along the same lines, 65 percent of nonwhite voters, including 64 percent of African-American voters and 73 percent of Hispanic voters, supported the creation of a single-payer health care system in the United States compared with only 15 percent of Republican primary voters. And given a choice between more government services with higher taxes and fewer government services with lower taxes, 67 percent of nonwhite voters, including 67 percent of African-American voters and 68 percent of Hispanic voters, chose more government services with higher taxes compared with only 25 percent of GOP primary voters.