UPDATED: Senate Dems Will Exceed Expectations
PREVIOUSLY:I see the following hard fought-but-solid-Dem wins:
NC, NH, LA, GA. In all 4, the Dem currently leads, and that gives us 49.
UPDATE (poll range: 10/15-10/31)
NC: Hagan - UP 1.1
NH: SHaheen - UP 3.4
LA: Landrieu - UP 4.4
GA: Nunn - DOWN 0.3
NC, LA, and GA show the three way polls. In a two way, Hagan increased to 1.8, Landrieu loses by 5.2, and Nunn stays the same
Early voting in NC and GA look excellent for Dems (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/upshot/early-voting-election-results-hold-good-news-for-democrats.html?abt=0002&abg=0). I say Nunn pulls out a run off victory.
Landrieu has had to defeat a runoff opponent twice before, so she know how to do it, but a 5 point deficit may be too much to overcome. Let's assume LA goes Red.
Dems win 3 of 4, giving us 48 seats (and counting!)
PREVIOUSLY:
KS, IA, KY, AK. 1 of those 4 gives us 50. 2 secures the deal at 51. If we somehow take all 4 we hold at 53.
NOTES: If Orman wins, I think he'll sit with the Dems. His explanation of why he's running as an Independant (http://www.ormanforsenate.com/independence) reveals that he wants people who are "fiscally responsible and socially tolerant" to have a voice. In essence, he's a Blue Dog.
While I was initially convinced that CO would stay Dem in a squeaker, it seems to have slipped outside of our grasp.
50/51, and that's my story.
UPDATE (poll range: 10/15-10/31)
KS: Orman (I) - UP 0.8
IA: Braley - DOWN 1.1
KY: Grimes - DOWN 6.3
AK: Begich - DOWN 1.0
NEW NOTES: I think Joni Ernst in IA is this year's Sharron Angle. In 2010, the RCP average from 10/15-10/31 had Angle up by 3, and Reid losing in 6 out of 6 polls. Reid went on to win by 5.6 points! Following that analogy, Braley is up by 15 points in IA early voting!!! (http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/29/democrat-bruce-braley-whopping-15-points-early-voters-iowa-senate-race.html)
Begich had a great poll on 10/28, but slipped back again immediately. There is a great GOTV effort in Alaska, but let's assume that Begich is a toss up. Grimes is struggling, sadly, and KY does not look very promising.
Still, a Braley win in Iowa, that puts us at 49. If Begich succeeds, we're at 50. If not - well, here's why that could be fine...
In KS, Orman says he'll sit with the majority party. But even if Begich falls, if Orman sits with Dems, we'll have an EVENLY DIVIDED Senate. Exactly what an Independant minded candidate would want, right? In reality though, he'll be in the majority, because Biden would break any tie vote.
No matter what the Republicans offer him, Democrats will up the offer. Plus, if he sits with Republicans, they'll have a 2 seat majority...FOR 2 YEARS. In 2016, Dems will come back, Orman will be on the outside looking in, and it will be too late to make any Democratic friends.
My prediction last week was we will hold 50/51 seats. This week the math is different, but the end results stand.
Democrats will hold 50/51 Senate seats. That's STILL my story, and I'm sticking to it.
= new reply since forum marked as read
There's a 75% chance Republicans pick up seats in the House. The chances of them losing it is around 0.5%. Even less likely is that we pick up seats in the Senate. I'd put that at 0.0001%. Sucks, but better to know what's coming. I'll do my part Tuesday, but in my head I will hope we do better than expected. Breaking even in the House (with same seats as this time) and going down to 49 seats in the Senate will be as good as we can get.
They were last election, over-favoring Republicans by about 3.5 points. Here's Nate Silver's graph (sorry about the size):
Let's say that the polls this year are much cleaner, and over-favor Republicans by just 1-2%. Here's what happens:
1% makes is a virtual tied game.
a 2% bias flips the odds. Instead of a 76% chance that the Republicans will succeed, there would then be a 77% chance that DEMs would hold the Senate.
Remember, there was a demonstrable 3+% Republican bias in the last election...
job to discourage Dem Voters.. and too many get SUCKED into IT!
Thanks demwing
