What Are The Chances McConnell Will Effectively Kill The Filibuster In January?

[stopbush]

I have the sneaking suspicion that he is planning on going to simple majority rule to pass legislation when the Senate reconvenes in January. The Senate can form its own rules for the term. McConnell will cite the limited use of simple majority that Harry Reid imposed on confirmations as precedent to effectively kill the Ds power to filibuster any R legislation. The Rs will then send up a boatload of onerous legislation passed by both houses by simple majority.

All that would be standing in the way of their onerous legislation becoming law is the president's veto power. They will then point to Obama's use of the veto as grounds for impeachment, saying he is abusing his executive power by vetoing everything they send to him.

I give this scenario a 70-30 chance of happening.

[samsingh]

1. depends on whether the repugs think they can keep the senate in 2016

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

3. I guess we'll know how cocky they're feeling if they decide to go for it. nt

[Oktober]

2. That was the obvious next step when the filibuster came up before...

Not so much on the impeachment..

[Warpy]

4. Dunno, Harry Reid is playing the Milquetoast role these days

saying the Democrats won't behave as badly as Republicans have. He might be trying to give the Tortoise a false sense of security so he won't kill the filibuster completely and be stuck with it for the next 2 years.

It also looks like the Republicans will try to remove a Democratic president from office no matter what, just to avenge Nixon. Spiteful people are never able to let go of anything.

[unblock]

5. i give it less than a 5% chance.

it's an advantage, but in no way a big one, for republicans to do away with the filibuster while there's a democratic president.

if they win the white house in 2016 as well as keep the senate (possible, but quite a challenge given the senate map) *then* there would be a huge advantage to taking out the only power democrats have left -- but then they could always change the rules in January 2017 instead.

more likely is that they lose the senate after two years, then they would regret killing the filibuster.


so it's a small upside - big downside risk for them.

not likely they'll do it imho.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

6. Probably less than him doing away with the 60-vote rule. nt

[kentuck]

7. But he can't kill the presidential veto...

Can he?

[davidn3600]

8. If the GOP wins the White House in 2016...it's checkmate

And don't say it can't happen. In 2008, if I told you the GOP would take over both Houses of congress by 2014, you'd say, "There's no way."

The GOP has slowly reversed practically all our gains we made between 2006 and 2008.

[3catwoman3]

9. How many...

...guesses do I get?