Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault

[JonLP24]

http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/Ukraine%20Article%20in%20Foreign%20Affairs.pdf

PDF so pain in the *** to copy & paste. John J. Mearsheimer R. Wendell Harrison Distinguish Political Science professor with the University of Chicago.

The first 4 paragraphs is his claim, the next 11 pages he makes a case for it. To me he states the obvious which is why my position is to not pick a side, but it goes into how US & Nato & their attempts to develop a Western stronghold right next to Russia's border was a mistake. One thing I went through the trouble to delete massive spacing was to include the circumstances regarding the invasion & were very opportunistic in its approach.

For Putin, the time to act against Ukraine and the West had arrived. Shortly after February 22, he ordered Russian forces to take Crimea from Ukraine, and soon after that, he incorporated it into Russia. The task proved relatively easy, thanks to the thousands Russian troops already stationed at a naval base in the Crimean port Sevastopol. Crimea also made for an easy target since ethnic Russians compose roughly 60 percent its population. Most them wanted out Ukraine.

Next, Putin put massive pressure on the new government in Kiev
to discourage it from siding with the West against Moscow, making it
clear that he would wreck Ukraine as a functioning state before he
would allow it to become a Western stronghold on Russia’s doorstep.

Toward that end, he has provided advisers, arms, and diplomatic support to the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, who are pushingthe country toward civil war. He has massed a large army on the
Ukrainian border, threatening to invade the government cracks down on the rebels. And he has sharply raised the price the natural gas Russia sells to Ukraine and demanded payment for past exports.
Putin is playing hardball.

THE DIAGNOSIS

Putin’s actions should be easy to comprehend. A huge expanse at land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buyer state enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would
tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was determined to integrate Ukraine into the West.

Take it or leave it but in my opinion, it is probably the best independent truthful analysis regarding this conflict & also provides so many of the context, including NATO expansion of the 90's.

Here it is also in standard online article print form but there is a registration prompt though it may charge given its limit of 2 articles per month & they charge for the audio version of the professor's claims. -- http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault

[geek tragedy]

1. So Mearsheimer thinks that the West is at fault for treating Ukrainians as human beings

with the right to self-determination rather than as slaves to Moscow.

Note the kind of behavior Mearsheimer thinks is just fine:

Next, Putin put massive pressure on the new government in Kiev
to discourage it from siding with the West against Moscow, making it
clear that he would wreck Ukraine as a functioning state before he
would allow it to become a Western stronghold on Russia’s doorstep.

Toward that end, he has provided advisers, arms, and diplomatic support to the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, who are pushing the country toward civil war. He has massed a large army on the
Ukrainian border, threatening to invade the government cracks down on the rebels. And he has sharply raised the price the natural gas Russia sells to Ukraine and demanded payment for past exports.
Putin is playing hardball.

This seems like the people who blamed the USSR for what Reagan did to Nicaragua.

[Comrade Grumpy]

2. Ukraine isn't Nicaragua. And the West miscalculated.

If one wanted to indulge in overheated language, one could ask whether Putin "is at fault for treating Crimeans and Eastern Ukrainians as human beings with the right to self-determination rather than as slaves" to Kiev. I seem to recall a number of votes in Crimea and the East where large numbers of people came out in support of the rebels.

I'm not going to say the West plotted what happened last year, but it certainly looks like the West thought it could pry Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and tried to do so. It didn't work out so well, though. And here we are.

[mythology]

5. That vote wasn't in any sense of the word legitimate

[geek tragedy]

8. "I seem to recall a number of votes in Crimea and the East where large numbers of people came out in

support of the rebels."

Votes taken at gunpoint are meaningless.

There was no independence movement in Eastern Ukraine before the Russian invasion began.

Indeed, opinion polling from that region showed a strong preference towards remaining part of Ukraine.

But, Moscow's men with guns willed a different outcome, so here we are.

Ukraine is worse than Nicaragua. Far worse, since the US was never in danger of annexing Nicaragua in part or whole.

it certainly looks like the West thought it could pry Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and tried to do so

Ukraine is not an object to be pried away from its rightful owners in Moscow. It's a nation of people who should be free to choose their own destiny.

Certainly the desire to be free of the tentacles of the imperial mafia state in Moscow seems like a very wise one. But, much like battered women are in danger when they leave their abuser, so are former USSR vassal states who try to leave the Russian empire.

[JonLP24]

11. Polling showed 65-70% regarding Crimea

but I think a lot changed following the early elections. It's a nation of people that certainly should be free, free from US & western meddling.

Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, has made the decision to dismiss the country’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, a message on his official Twitter account says.

The decision comes because “the majority of the MPs voted for dictator-style laws,” which cost the lives of Maidan activists, RIA Novosti news agency reports citing Poroshenko’s spokesman.

The election of the new parliament will be held on October 26, the spokesman Svyatoslav Tsegolko wrote on his Facebook page.

Poroshenko has called on “democratic forces” in Ukraine to enter the elections as a united “pro-Ukrainian, pro-European team,” Tsegolko’s Facebook post states adding that the Rada was dismissed “because it is the only right and responsible decision.”

“The Fifth Column in the parliament consists of dozens of so-called people’s deputies. But they don’t represent the interests of the people, who elected them, but the interests of some other people,” the statement said.

http://www.infowars.com/ukraine-president-dissolves-parliament-paves-way-for-early-election/

Early elections, areas of Ukraine weren't allowed to vote. The early elections saw 32% turnout in Eastern parts compared to 70% on the Western part. None in Crimea. I personally don't get the noticeable omission. I saw a lot of Russian apologists here when McCain claimed "We're all Georgians"

[geek tragedy]

12. Infowars? nt

[JonLP24]

14. Well there certainly is an information war going on

but a lot of what the article mentions as well as the Political Scientist are backed up by mainstream news organizations. I'm not sure if the individual quotes are accurate but I'm unsure who infowars is referencing for the cite. It really isn't hard to find mainstream sources despite the overplaying of Russian propaganda and its affects (especially since google searches bring up a 10-1 advantage claiming they're losing the war to Russian propaganda)

Another word for Ukrainian crisis is the 2014 Ukrainian revolution (even ABC used it in a report).


Procrastination on restoring the 2004 amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine
Complete pardoning of arrested protesters instead of amnesty

Goals

Ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych
Restoration of the Constitution as it was between 2004 and 2010

Methods

Protesting, riot, civil disobedience

Result

President Yanukovych overthrown. Yanukovych becomes a fugitive and flees to Russia.
Restoration of the Constitution as it was between 2004 and 2010
Yulia Tymoshenko released from prison.
Abolishment of the "law on regional languages", resulting in again making Ukrainian the sole state language at all administrative levels[4] (vetoed by interim-President Turchynov)[5]
Dismissal of Ministers of the acting Second Azarov Government[4]
50 suspects, including top officials are charged with organising the killing of protesters.[6]
Berkut special force is dissolved
Mass protests in East and South Ukraine against the government in Kiev
Nationwide destruction of Soviet monuments[7]
Beginning of Crimean crisis and Russian military intervention in Ukraine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution

There is only so much I can say that the PDF doesn't already mention. We can all bury our heads in the sand & say Saddam had something to do with 9/11.

[pampango]

15. "It's a nation of people that certainly should be free, free from US & western meddling." And

Russian meddling? Or just free of meddling that you don't like? Poland shares a border with Ukraine just as Russia does. Should we promote or condone Polish meddling in Ukraine?

[JonLP24]

17. My position is for the US to stay the f out

I don't approve of anything but they should certainly stay out of sectarian conflicts with a neighbor providing support.

I also wouldn't pick a side regarding Polish & Ukraine. Picking sides just recycles everything all over again.

However, there is still the question regarding what citizens inside the country & how they view things. Like the idea regarding the Yugoslaviar wars, ask a Serb, ask a Croation, and ask a Bosnian. I think it would be a good idea to handle a situation which also addresses the concerns of the Russians meaning citizens of Ukraine that are Russian descent.

But in all honesty, I don't think the US & Nato is interested in having a large scale conflict Russia. I think the goal pretty much was back & support Ukrainian government forces that will ally with NATO & others as well as simultaneously cutting off relations with Russia.

[pampango]

20. My position is that the US, Russia, Poland and everyone else should stay out. That includes

annexing territory, supporting either side with fighters or arms and just let the Ukrainians settle their differences like people in every country do.

I don't think NATO is going to admit Ukraine for a long, long time if ever. Ukraine apparently wants to join NATO. That is understandable from a Ukrainian point of view since it would supply some degree of security from foreign invasion, but I think the West knows how delicate an issue it is.

I know Putin likes to present NATO as a great threat to Russia. I don't know if he seriously expects NATO to invade Russia one day, if he is just playing the "foreign bogeyman" card for domestic politics or if he really thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia and NATO potentially stands in the way of that.

[JonLP24]

23. I agree

though US & Nato often mention & publicly supporting government officials that are pro-Western. The whole Euromaiden movement was based on that & a lot of the people that identify as Ukrainian remember what it was like but officials turn around and react the same way to prevent it from happening & that Russian(I mean Ukrainian citizens in this context) politicians & citizens. The guy the parliament threw out was in favor of keeping the country non-aligned & maintaining relations with Russia, smoke bomb was thrown into the room of the treaty signing. After he was thrown out & the following early elections then came the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution.

Other than tough rhetoric & some sanctions, US & Nato has basically been letting Russia do whatever it wants. The pro-western side are probably in for an eye opener regarding US & Nato & certainly those that favor the alliance have been going above & beyond, doing backflips. Russia has a large military so Ukraine can't take them, especially if parts of Ukraine want to join Russia.

Like you said regarding everyone staying out, involvement will lead to more bitterness & grudges for those that have those against Russia. Russians will have more bitterness & grudges regarding the Ukrainians -- especially considering atrocities are being committed by both sides. I'm not sure what the solution is but I can't how many "ceasefires" have failed, one map has a "ceasefire zone".

On edit - the Euromaiden side also want that IMF bailout.

[JDPriestly]

53. NATO will probably never, ever invade Russia. Russia has repelled just about every invasion

from the West or South. I just think Russia is being paranoid about this.

Putin is a problem. He doesn't understand how people in the West think.

The Ukraine should be allowed to have relationships with other countries as it wishes. Russia is in no danger. That is my opinion.

[uhnope]

39. infowars. say hi to Alex Jones on your way to ridiculousness

[ND-Dem]

49. There were no votes taken while russians were holding guns to people's heads, sorry.

and I'd really like some verification of this supposed Russian 'invasion'

1/3 of Ukrainians are Russian speakers and a significant proportion of the country are ethnic Russians.

[Duckhunter935]

55. Russia broke the signed basing agreements and invaded Crimea

Putin admitted that

"1/3 of Ukrainians are Russian speakers and a significant proportion of the country are ethnic Russians."

So are other parts of Europe, does Russia have the right to go in to these sovereign nations to "protect" them also?

always helps to have a vote with weapons at the polling places and giving food away to the starving.

[OverseaVisitor]

58. Open your eyes and ears

[Duckhunter935]

59. I am sure some approved and some did not

The facts are that Russia still broke the signed basing agreement, the signed Budapest agreement and sent it's military in. In other words an invasion. I know facts are hard to take sometimes.

[OverseaVisitor]

60. Yes

But did the signed agreement got void when there is a coup.
Even the US got caught off balance by the coup

[Duckhunter935]

66. no

as there was no coup. The old president vacated the office and the Rada including his own party put in a placeholder until elections could be held. They were held and internationally observed and found to be within international norms and free and fair.

[ND-Dem]

73. where are these other areas of europe with a majority ethnic russians?

[OverseaVisitor]

79. Where all the fighting is happening

If you follow the track of what happen after the coup and the stupid law that they enact that leads to this then you understand.

View VICE NEWS Dispatch from 1 to 89

[ND-Dem]

82. sorry, i don't know what you're referring to. I said where are these *other* areas.

[OverseaVisitor]

83. Just look at these video........... start from dispatch 1 to 89

Also look at some video from FallenUSSoldeirs

some some personal video

[ND-Dem]

84. it was a simple question. i don't want to watch a video to get an answer, sorry.

[JDPriestly]

52. I thought I heard Obama state that the US recognizes Russia's interest in Crimea and its ports.

That was not in dispute. The problem is Ukraine itself and whether Ukraine has the right to self-determination.

As I understand the recent history, the majority of the Ukrainian people chose to be outside of Russia's orbit.

Sometimes it is difficult to figure out the truth. But here, the fighting seems to be coming from Eastern Ukraine and there appear to be Russians and Russian soldiers involved in the fighting. I have not heard of any NATO or American soldiers actually fighting in the Ukraine. Is there evidence of this?

I watched the video of Wesley Clark that is posted on DU on the video group. He believes we should arm Ukraine. I have a lot of confidence in his judgment and understanding of strategy.

[JonLP24]

3. He mentions Geopolitics 101

right after the paragraphs I pasted, the reason why I did is the political environment in Ukraine provided them this opportunity where Ukraine has pretty much waved the white flag as far as Crimean is concerned. US & Nato interests in Ukraine are geopolitical & strategic as well, they are backing the government against Ukranian Human beings.

The IMF Extortion is being dangled in favor of Pro Western alliance from Ukraine.

I don't see it as defending Russia except more in the what would you expect if you did this but it also pulls no punches regarding the West.

Ukraine eyes IMF credit lifeline in early 2015

(Reuters) - Ukraine expects the International Monetary Fund to disburse new and overdue loans after a visit next month and still hopes a $17 billion bailout program can be expanded, its central bank governor said on Tuesday.

Valeria Gontareva declined to give a value for the payment, even when pressed by journalists, but it is likely to total more than $4 billion.

With its economy pushed close to bankruptcy by a separatist war in the east and costly energy imports from Russia, Ukraine hustled through an austerity budget on Monday which it hopes will impress the Fund when a mission visits Kiev from Jan. 8.

The former Soviet republic has so far received two tranches of aid worth a combined $4.6 billion under the IMF-led bailout package that was agreed in April to support the economy and shore up depleted foreign currency reserves.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/us-ukraine-crisis-economy-imf-idUSKBN0K80M720141230

[geek tragedy]

64. So you respected what Reagan did to Nicaragua then.

Disgusting.

[Duckhunter935]

68. what you stated is just beyond the pale

"The fact that he doesn't allow homosexuals to adopt and molest children"

[Duckhunter935]

71. Thanks MIRT

[mythology]

4. Yes, poor little Putin would have never harmed a soul if it weren't for Ukraine looking to join NATO

This is a sad attempt to justify Putin's illegal actions. The problem with realpolitik is that it's almost always used to excuse policies leaders wanted anyway. Putin gets to invade Ukraine, gain support at home where there was a risk with the Olympics being a let down, there was a small but growing sense of discontent from Putin's internal detractors and flex his muscles.

The NATO aspect was an excuse, not a justification.

But to further address the point that this isn't just about keeping Ukraine as a neutral barrier between NATO/EU/the west and Russia, part of what the Ukrainians who overthrew the previous government was complaining about is that Yanukovych signed a treaty that would closely align Ukraine with Russia. That makes it hard to argue that Putin just wanted to keep the status quo. Instead he wanted to expand his power.

The underlying logic that it might upset somebody is the same as saying we shouldn't allow same sex marriage because some people are convinced it's a threat to heterosexual marriage. There's nothing to suggest that bringing Ukraine into NATO was a precursor to invading Russia, so there's no threat to Russia.

[stevenleser]

6. Well said. This apologia for Putin's actions isn't even slightly convincing. nt

[JonLP24]

9. Its not even apologia

its a brutally honest description of his actions and he obviously did his research here, it is also his job too. It is brutally honest regarding the West & the honesty regarding the events in Ukraine (how could you view thing as not legitimate but not the other?) The one being labeled as illegitimate from the West gets a lot of press but little coverage regarding the coup.

[JonLP24]

7. I see it more as unintended consequences

The paragraphs I pasted was just a portion but he references recent Ukraine history & the overthrow, it is all mentioned in the 12 pages. He claims Russia's actions shouldn't come as a surprise but a lot is being justified in defenses of pro western political leaders, distancing themselves from partnerships with Russia where a smoke bomb was thrown in the room where the existing treaty was extended (he mentions how it was so much easier for Russia to invade since they already had military forces there). The Russian-Ukranians are discriminated & marginalized against in favor of an IMF bailout which comes with strings attached (IMF bailouts always do)

[Ykcutnek]

10. Russian propaganda machine 'worse than Soviet Union'

And on Ukraine there's one message - that the violence in eastern Ukraine is all Kiev's fault, that Ukraine is crawling with Russia-hating neo-Nazis and fascists, and that it's the US government which is fuelling the crisis behind the scenes, while Russia tries to act as peacemaker.

"Aggressive and deceptive propaganda... worse than anything I witnessed in the Soviet Union," is the verdict of Lev Gudkov, the director of the Levada Centre, Russia's most well respected polling organisation.

Cultural historian and publisher Irina Prokhorova goes further - she calls it "Stalinist", reminiscent of the anti-Western hysteria which marked the grim repressive years of the late 1940s.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27713847

[JonLP24]

13. Information war

1) Journalists face serious threats to their safety

There have been “nearly 300 reported cases of violence against journalists, including murder, physical assaults, kidnappings, threats, intimidations, detentions, imprisonments, and damage and confiscation of equipment”. These attacks are divided into two phases — the first covering the Maidan protests in Kiev, and the second the ongoing crisis in the east of the country. In Maidan, journalist Viacheslav Veremyi was killed, while almost 200 others were victims of violence. These include the over 40 journalists who were assaulted while covering protests on 13 December 2013. “In some cases,” the report states, “journalists were specifically targeted by law enforcement despite displaying clear identification as members of the press.” Since March, attacks on journalists in the east have intensified and gone without prosecution — something that “points to the breakdown of the rule of law in the parts of Ukraine affected by conflict”. On 18 May, Ukrainian military arrested two Russian journalists from LifeNews, while two journalists from Otkritiy Krymskiy Kanal were detained, interrogated, beaten and had their equipment seized by a group of people wearing military uniforms. Journalists in Crimea — recently annexed by Russia — who are not considered loyal to the region’s authorities, and who refuse to change citizenship, have been faced with regular threats, harassment and the possibility of eviction.
2) Ukraine is in the middle of an information war

There have been a number of accusations of the media being used to disseminate propaganda. “Propaganda and the deterioration of media freedom combine to fuel and contribute to the escalation of conflict, and once it starts they contribute to its escalation,” the report states. Among other thing, broadcasting stations “and related infrastructure” in Crimea, Sloviansk, Donetsk and Luhansk, have been attacked by unidentified and often armed individuals who supplanted regularly scheduled television programming with Russian state media. In March, the National Television and Radio Broadcasting Council of Ukraine ordered all cable operators to stop broadcasts of several Russian state TV channels. “No matter how loud and outrageous certain voices are, they will not prevail in a competitive and vibrant marketplace of ideas,” the report argues. “Therefore, any potentially problematic speech should be countered with arguments and more speech, rather than engaging in censorship.”
3) Media workers are being denied entry

In the past months, the OSCE has intervened in some 30 cases of journalists being denied entry into Ukraine and Crimea. “I have serious concerns about excessive restrictions on such travel, which ultimately affects the free flow of information and free media,” writes Mijatovic. Recently, Russia Today’s Arabic news crew, who travelled to Kiev to cover Sunday’s presidential election, were denied entry at immigration. Two crews from the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) were not allowed to enter Ukraine, despite having all required accreditations. On a related note, a Rossiya-1 TV crew were this week deported from Ukraine.

index on censorship is the source

Regarding propaganda, their certainly is a lot of it out there but I don't see it from Russians. The facts he mentions are very easy to prove & it doesn't require Russia propaganda. Unfortunately picking good guys out of the bad guys has led to a remarkable amount of omission.

[MattSh]

48. Ah, the BBC.

Considering they're part of the empire, I'm not surprised they chose to publish those two quotes. Their masters in DC will approve.

[ND-Dem]

50. Irina Prokhorova sister of the billionaire/oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov, owner of the NJ Nets and

the Barclays Center arena.

She runs his foundation.

[JonLP24]

18. I don't know why defending the truth is viewed as defending Russia

Thanks for posting & pointing that out.

[uhnope]

42. Hey koko... How many times are you going to post this lying BS today?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017242186#post1

You earned a

[Bad Thoughts]

19. "Only a misguided state would pass up an opportunity to be the hegemon ...

... in the system because it thought it already had sufficient power to survive."

That's Mearsheimer's orientation: he would side with Russia solely on the basis of being a "great power."

[KingCharlemagne]

22. Are you putting quote marks around 'great power' because you don't think

the Russian Federation actually is a great power? The RF has a thermonuclear arsenal and an air-land-sea triad with which it can incinerate every person in the U.S. If that's not the definition of 'great power,' then I don't know what is.

[geek tragedy]

31. A strong economy, diplomatic influence and respect abroad, cultural influence,

the ability to project power outside one's own borders and immediate neighbors, are all aspects of great powers that Russia lacks.

All Russia has is lots of frozen real estate and nukes. The old USSR was a great power--even if you didn't like them, you had to respect their power and influence.

Russia is despised and feared locally, but not respected globally. They have the nuke card, but that only goes so far.

[KingCharlemagne]

46. "All Russia has is lots of frozen real estate and nukes." - Ahem, and ICBMs. Oh, and this:

After the U.S. Space Shuttle program ended in 2011, Soyuz rockets became the only provider of transport for astronauts at the International Space Station . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station (Emphasis added)

[Bad Thoughts]

36. I did it because I did not want to take the time to define its meaning. eom.

[randome]

21. Can we have a Russian Activism forum for bilge like this?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

[elias49]

24. Super patriot is here!!

[randome]

27. America isn't perfect by any means.

But Putin is an asshole and not a very smart one at that. OPs like this posit that he feels helpless before American might and this is why he is causing events in the Ukraine to spiral out of control.

Good God, why did Gorbachev step aside? Now there was a statesman!
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

[JonLP24]

32. Events in Ukraine spiraled out of control before Russia decided to invade

Gallup polls down thread point to citizens are more pro Russian than pro NATO (but the pro Russia, no NATO guy was thrown out by Parliament overwhelmingly (just short of the constitution mandated 70% however) voted in favor of that as well as backing the President that called for early elections that elected that Parliament also dismissed 5 Constitutional Court Judges. Makes a lot of sense. Certainly more are favor of stay Ukraine in the eastern parts but it explains why there is so much resistance on protests because if the option is either US or Russia, Ukraine overwhelmingly favors Russia but they'd rather maintain relations with both.

[JonLP24]

25. The pdf actually features the quote "Putin represents a modern day Adolf Hitler"

He suggests US & NATO expansion & backing Euromaiden side at the expense of the Ukrainian Revolution side led to this.

He mentions Russian would be unlikely to annex the entire Eastern side if it wanted to & much less conquer the whole country. A reason for that is the majority of the citizens on the Eastern side want to remain with Ukraine (which is a different story regarding Crimea which features the highest concentration of its Russian speaking citizens) He says it is capable of fully occupying but points to within the last 100 years of examples of occupations ending badly, including USSR in Afghanistan.

He makes a solution that could work. He claims both sides, with the denial it is about Russian security (Smedley Butler claimed the US seemed to be trying to provoke Japan in attacking with war games closer & closer to their coastline--before Pearl Harbor), are doubling down on their positions. He suggests US & Nato rule out alliances with Ukraine & Georgia. He says US, EU, IMF, & Moscow should come up with a joint bailout package for Ukraine which would help settle a lot of things. He suggests the US & European allies should encourage Ukrainian political leaders respect the minority & language rights of its Russian speakers.

Personally, I think he makes a lot of sense.

[Adam051188]

26. maybe it's just me....

...but it seems like the idea of blaming an outside group for problems caused by and created within a system of governance tolerated and endorsed by a unified nation is somewhere between infantile and openly manipulative. (sort of like blaming china for american economic problems.)

if Ukraine can't handle governing itself than someone else shall do the job for them, thus is the way of the world. All other sentiments are purely fantastical. beware of glass houses.

[JonLP24]

28. He cites Russia's early concern regarding NATO expansion extending further toward their territory

The US & NATO understood their concerns then the NATO expansion of the 90's and openly backed & supported things that the pro Western side but the pro Russia side or Independence of Crimea or referendem isn't. IMF bailout is a big part of pro NATO side. Also the poster above mentions a Nulan tape implying somewhat of an ulterior motive as far as US concerned. Political scientist probably could have used a different headline but his argument his US & NATO provoked Russia basically. The one poster that posts a map of US Military installations certainly speaks to it as you see many military bases all around Russia.

I'm getting off point, this is a major point of contention in Ukraine whether they want to join NATO or continue to maintain relations with Russia even if it angers the US.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The recent conflict between Russia and Georgia sparked a division within Ukraine's Western-leaning governing coalition that eventually contributed to its collapse in mid-September. Prior to these events, a Gallup Poll found a strong majority of Ukrainians (65%) saying their leadership is taking the country in the wrong direction and only about one in six (16%) expressing confidence in their national government.



f the governing parties do not form a new coalition in parliament within 30 days of collapse, Ukraine will face its third election in as many years. Since taking power in January 2005, President Viktor Yushchenko has pushed a pro-Western agenda, including championing a bid for his country to join NATO, a move that Russia has strongly advised against. In May 2008, only 17% of Ukrainians approved of Yushchenko's job performance and 65% disapproved.

A Gallup Poll conducted in Ukraine suggests that this low approval rating for Yushchenko may be reflective of pro-Moscow sentiment expressed by many Ukrainians. Prior to Russia's conflict with Georgia, Gallup finds that many Ukrainians favored strong relations with Russia, even if this might hurt their country's relations with the United States and the European Union. However, many Ukrainians also volunteered that it is important to have close relations with Russia and the West.





Ukrainians are more likely to approve of Russia's leadership than the leaderships of Western nations such as the France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and United States. Approval of Russia's leadership in Ukraine has increased significantly, from 45% approval in 2006 to 59% in 2008.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110848/Ukrainians-May-Oppose-Presidents-ProWestern-Goals.aspx

Polling certainly gives a better view. Here we are today lining up one side which also explains why a majority of citizens view NATO as more of a threat

[Adrahil]

30. That was May 2008. Ya know, before Russia seized Crimea....

I'm guessing attitudes have changed....

[Adam051188]

34. i think....

...therefor i am.

the government of Ukraine did not think, therefore it is not. so what is? two are. and the remainder shall be split according to need and means.

who's fault is it when an individual or group stops thinking? the world? god? me? you? them? us? ever seen house of cards? i haven't.

[JonLP24]

35. I certainly believe attitudes have changed

Just probably not in the way you may have guessed. The pro Russian relations guy was thrown out by a Parliament voted in by early elections which had 32% turnout in the Eastern parts. Crimea wasn't allowed to vote. The Pro NATO are overwhemingly in plus the well known issues regarding respect of Russian speaking minorities, especially with official language designition which is vocally opposed by the other side.

In any case, it explains why there is significant opposition. When there isn't a war going on, there are protests instead.


A wounded protestor is assisted during the clashes

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/10591246/Ukraine-protests-in-pictures-Riot-police-clash-with-protesters-on-Kiev-streets.html?frame=2798587

I'd be very interested in recent polling.

I know this is even older but I think percentages are still heavily ethnic-Russian


Berlin) – The war in eastern Ukraine has had a devastating impact on civilians, Human Rights Watch said today in its World Report 2015. The armed conflict between Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian government forces broke out during the most turbulent year in Ukraine’s post-independence period, which also included mass protests, the overthrow of the government, and Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

Between April and October 2014, armed conflict in eastern Ukraine claimed the lives of over 4,000 people, about 1,000 of them civilians, and wounded over 9,000. Over 500,000 people are internally displaced in Ukraine; many others have fled to Russia. All sides to the conflict violated laws of war, including through indiscriminate attacks in populated areas. A ceasefire, announced following peace talks in Minsk in early September, did not stop the fighting.

“Civilians in Ukraine have borne the brunt of this conflict, with thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands displaced in a matter of months,” said Yulia Gorbunova, Europe and Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch. “All sides of the conflict should be doing their utmost to protect civilians.”

In the 656-page world report, its 25th edition, Human Rights Watch reviews human rights practices in more than 90 countries. In his introductory essay, Executive Director Kenneth Roth urges governments to recognize that human rights offer an effective moral guide in turbulent times, and that violating rights can spark or aggravate serious security challenges. The short-term gains of undermining core values of freedom and non-discrimination are rarely worth the long-term price.

Both government and rebel forces have launched unguided Grad rockets against targets in densely populated civilian areas in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, killing and injuring civilians. Both parties also fired artillery from populated areas without taking feasible precautions to protect civilians and endangering them by inviting return fire.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2015/01/29/ukraine-war-east-crimea-occupation

I think as with any conflict, majority of citizens don't want this war but I have a very hard time imagining Ukrainian opinions improving as well as Russia but I could see either gaining more support from the different factions

[Duckhunter935]

37. It helped that Russia

deported the Crimean tartar population and for 50 years had Russians moved in to replace them.

[ND-Dem]

51. They're there, regardless. And they're the majority in Crimea.

And Russia certainly isn't the first big power to do that kind of thing.

[Duckhunter935]

54. I guess if the ends justify the means

It's all good

(sigh)

[polly7]

75. Russia didn't 'seize' crimea.

But that propaganda crap line is about as equally effective as the incubator-babies, and I'm sure those who don't bother to care about the truth in lieu of being able to start another war or ramp up the existing horror won't care ........ it works every time.

Crimean people of predominantly Russian descent and culture VOTED DEMOCRATICALLY to leave a place where the hatred against them was so strong the new brutal coup-sponsored 'gov't' decided it's first act against them would be to disallow their own native language. Who the HELL would want to remain under the thumb of such fear and hatred? You talk about these people as a collective, brainless bunch of cows who were forced to stand in line and enter those polling booths to vote. Democracy for thee, but not for the 'others' (rebels/traitors/terrorists, i.e. human beings with the brains to decide their own futures).

What a joke.

[Duckhunter935]

76. did you forget about all of the Russian troops before that

that left their bases and surrounded the Ukrainian bases and stormed the ships after sinking one of the Russian ships to block them in?

They broke the basing agreement and broke international law by blockading the Ukrainian navy. That is an invasion.

[TooPragmatic]

72. Here are some newer polls.

http://www.uceps.org/eng/poll.php?poll_id=305

http://www.uceps.org/eng/poll.php?poll_id=919

http://www.uceps.org/eng/poll.php?poll_id=838

http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/

[Duckhunter935]

78. 6+ year old polls?

how about 2013-2014?

[Adrahil]

29. So, Ukraine is not free to make its own decisions about...

...who it wishes to be associated with?

They must bow to the will of their former imperial masters?

THAT'S the argument?

For fuck's sake....

[JonLP24]

41. IMF warns Ukraine on bailout if it loses east

Ukraine, struggling with a stuttering economy as well as an escalating crisis with neighboring Russia, has had its $17 billion International Monetary Fund bailout signed off.

But international lenders are already warning of threats to its funding.

Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, warned "further escalation of tensions with Russia and unrest in the east of the country pose a substantial risk to the economic outlook."

<snip>

The IMF predicts Ukraine's economy to shrink by 5 percent at least this year. The country has been hidebound by corruption in business and politics. New anti-corruption laws are expected, but their effectiveness remains to be seen.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101631226

EU feels let down by Ukraine over Tymoshenko

The EU has expressed disappointment at the Tymoshenko verdict. A statement from the foreign policy office said justice was being applied selectively in Ukraine under political motivation. But European Commission President José Manuel Barroso made it clear that it will not lead to a breakdown in relations.

“We think it is very important to have a reinforced relationship with Ukraine. At the same time we expect Ukraine to uphold the values of rule of law, of human rights, of fundamental rights and of course independent judiciary,” Barroso said.

<snip>

The EU has urged Ukraine to ensure fairness in any appeal of the case, not just of Tymoshenko, but also of other former members of government, and clearly feels let down according to Amanda Paul of the European Policy Centre.

“The EU finds itself in quite a difficult situation now. Clearly it wants to remain engaged with Ukraine because Ukraine is an important country and these agreements can have a significant impact on changing things in Ukraine. But at the same time it is obvious from the signals that they cannot allow what happened today to go by unnoticed or without affecting the relationship,” Paul said.

http://www.euronews.com/2011/10/11/eu-feels-let-down-by-ukraine-over-tymoshenko/

After the 2010 presidential election, a number of criminal cases were brought against her. On 11 October 2011 she was convicted of embezzlement and abuse of power, and sentenced to seven years in prison and ordered to pay the state $188 million. The prosecution and conviction were viewed by many governments – most prominently the European Union, who repeatedly called for release of Yulia Tymoshenko as the primary condition for signing the EU Association Agreement, and the USA – and international organizations such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International as politically biased.[22][23][24][25][26][27] She was released on 22 February 2014, in the concluding days of the Euromaidan revolution, following a revision of the Ukrainian criminal code that effectively decriminalized the actions for which she was imprisoned.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko

I don't doubt prosecutions may be have been politically motivated for the "gas princess" but why in the hell was embezzlement decriminalized?

Ukraine remains most corrupt country in Europe - Transparency International

Ukraine has received only one additional point in the new Corruption Perception Index (CPI) 2014 by Transparency International, in comparison with 2013, and remains in the club of the most corrupt countries, according to a statement released by Head of the Communications Department at Transparency International Ukraine Olga Tymchenko early on Wednesday.

"This year Ukraine scored 26 of 100 and took 142nd place of 175 in the CPI by Transparency International. Again Ukraine shares scores with Uganda and the Comoros as one of the most corrupt countries in the world....And a year after Maidan, still Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe," reads the press release.

The disappointing results are caused by the hardly noticeable progress in destruction of corruption schemes that remained after the previous ruling regimes.

"Despite 'the facade change,' Ukraine continues treading water. The newly-adopted laws have not yet given the tangible results in anti-corruption fighting," Transparency International said.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/237633.html

New and conflicting details emerge over Mogilevich’s alleged involvement in nation

Former security service chief Oleksandr Turchynov said he didn’t order the destruction of a case file on reputed mobster Semyon Mogilevich. Two former heads of the Security Service of Ukraine offered vastly different accounts this week of the alleged role of Semyon Mogilevich in the lucrative gas trade between Ukraine, Russia and other former Soviet states, as well as the contents and fate of secret agency files about the alleged mobster.

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, who headed the spy agency from 2006 to 2010, told the Kyiv Post in an interview that documents connecting Mogilevich with the nation’s gas trade had been destroyed by one of his predecessors, Oleksandr Turchynov, in 2005.

Turchynov, who was security service (SBU) chief in 2005, called such claims an “elaborate ruse” to discredit his close ally, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who made a fortune in the gas trade in the 1990s.

The controversy over the so-called Mogilevich SBU dossier dates back to the split in a coalition between Tymoshenko and former President Viktor Yushchenko in 2005, largely provoked by arguments over whether to retain gas trader RosUkrEnergo as an intermediary in the lucrative business of importing Russian and Central Asian gas to Ukraine.

Ukrainian politicians have accused each other of connections with alleged mafia boss Mogilevich, who for years has been on the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Most Wanted List of fugitives for alleged fraud.

Mogilevich’s lawyers have consistently denied that he is involved in organized crime or the region’s gas trade. But longstanding claims about Mogilevich’s alleged role in Ukraine returned to the stoplight, thanks to U.S. State

http://web.archive.org/web/20121003052951/http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/new-and-conflicting-details-emerge-over-mogilevich-92521.html

It just gets worse. Ukraine's government is what you'd call a Kleptocracy.

[Adrahil]

43. That's not even the same subject! n/t

[JonLP24]

44. Who’s Who in Ukraine’s New “Semi-fascist” Government: Meet the People the U.S. and EU are Supporting

he U.S. and European Union countries played a key role in the overthrow of the elected government in the Ukraine headed by Victor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions. Listening to the politicians in Washington or watching the corporate media, it would be easy to believe that the coup in the Ukraine has ushered in new era of democracy for the people of that country.

Nothing could be further from the truth. The new, self-appointed government in Kiev is a coalition between right-wing and outright fascist forces, and the line between the two is often difficult to discern. Moreover, it is the fascist forces, particularly the Svoboda party and the Right Sector, who are in the ascendancy, as evidenced by the fact that they have been given key government positions in charge of the military and other core elements of the state apparatus.



Dmytro Yarosh, Right Sector neo-Nazi commander who said “our revival begins with our Maidan,” is now second-in-command of the National Defense and Security Council (covering the military, police, courts and intelligence apparatus).


Andriy Parubiy, co-founder of the fascist Social National Party, which later changed its name to Svoboda. He is the new top commander of the National Defense and Security Council.


New Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk [left], a powerful right-wing banker, meets with neo-con John McCain. Pictured center is neo-Nazi Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok, now one of the most powerful figures in the country.

<snip>

That millions of Ukrainians, Russians, Greeks, Jews and others would abhor living under such a government should come as a surprise to no one. Seven decades ago, Nazi Germany and its allies invaded the Soviet Union, of which the Ukraine was a part.

It was inside the Soviet Union that the main forces of the Nazi war machine were destroyed—but at an appalling price. More than 27 million Soviet soldiers and civilians were killed and the country devastated. (By comparison, 416,800 U.S. personnel were killed in the same war, also a huge number itself, but one that only represents about 1.5 percent of Soviet deaths.)Highlighting its extreme right-wing character, among the first actions of the rump Rada (parliament) were terminating the official status of Russian and Greek as minority languages, rescinding the Crimea’s autonomy, and outlawing the Ukrainian Communist Party.The Fatherland party is leading the new government, headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

A few weeks before the Feb. 24 coup, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland, then in Kiev to support the anti-government protests, was recorded calling for Yatsenyuk to become the new leader. Yatsenyuk is a banker, very Western-oriented, and seen as sure to accede to the demands of the International Monetary Fund and the international banks for austerity measures in exchange for a “bailout” of the Ukraine’s debt.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/whos-who-in-ukraines-new-semi-fascist-government-meet-the-people-the-u-s-and-eu-are-supporting/5372422

[jtuck004]

33. Hey, we spent good money to help destabilize the place...

Here's the ambassador, who thinks other people are the problem, and apparently has more than one lap dog in support.

[stupidicus]

38. as most problems in the world are

and if Bush was still at the helm, most of the garbage here would likely never have been...

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/01/06/nyt-still-pretends-no-coup-in-ukraine/

[SidDithers]

40. Putin boot-lickers abound...nt

Sid

[JonLP24]

45. Boot lickers are certainly abound

Ukraine ranks #122 out of the 148 rated nations for “Diversion of public funds,” #143 for “Property rights,” #139 for “Judicial independence,” #130 for “Irregular payments and bribes,” #133 for “Favoritism in decisions of government officials” (otherwise known as cronyism), #143 for “Wastefulness of government spending,” #144 for “Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes,” #146 for “Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs,” #146 for “Protection of minority shareholders’ interests,” and #133 for “Reliability of police services.” In other words: it’s already like failed states.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf

[Duckhunter935]

56. what are Russias rankings?

[Ramses]

61. I already see we have fascism supporters here

American fascism supporters sure do want all of us to hate Russia.. just like Ronald Reagan and his right wing cold war garbage.

Funny how one sees the exact same fascism propaganda on a site like this. Supporting American CIA goons and NSA stooges..

[SidDithers]

62. Welcome back...nt

Sid

[Ramses]

65. welcome back to what?

[Duckhunter935]

69. another one showed up

in this thread, sick responses

[polly7]

74. Yes, yours and others nearly always are. Might be time for a little introspection. nt.

[Duckhunter935]

77. nope, just seems funny

that when one gets tombstoned another "user" shows up right after that saying the same things.

[jeff47]

47. Fucking self-determination. We can't have that!!! (nt)

[Duckhunter935]

57. I know, crazy isn't it

[arely staircase]

80. It is not Puti's place to tell Ukrainians who they can be friends with. nt

[Octafish]

81. Mearshimer's is a great mind.

Spot-on analysis:

The United States and its European allies now face a choice on
Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate
hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process—a
scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch
gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that
does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations
with Moscow.

As for the idiot PNAC approach, a note from 2011:

Goldman Sachs Is So Desperate To Get Into Ukraine It's Advising The Government For FREE

by Katya Wachtel,
Business Insider, June 25, 2011

Goldman Sachs has agreed to advise the Ukraine government for free, according to Bloomberg.
The bank, "which hasn’t arranged a debt or equity sale in Ukraine since at least 1999... will advise the administration of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov on managing its investments, state debt and 'other issues of financial-policy implementation.'"

"The selection follows Goldman’s third attempt in 17 years to crack " the former Soviet Republic.

Meanwhile other American banks including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have work on various bond sales in Ukraine.

SOURCE:

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-is-so-desperate-to-get-into-ukraine-its-advising-the-government-for-free-2011-6

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-24/goldman-sachs-agrees-to-advise-ukraine-for-free-government-says.html

Giving peace a chance seems difficult when money trumps peace is the order of the day every day.

[Karmadillo]

85. Excellent post.