It is either Hillary Clinton or a Republican as the next POTUS & this is why

[QuestionAlways]

First we must look at the numbers that describe the general political environment, which within elections are held, according to the Gallup polls: Source: Gallup.com

According to Gallup an average 43% of Americans identified politically as independents in 2014, Democrats hold a modest edge over Republicans in Party identification, 30% to 26%. When pressed, most independents will say they lean to one of the two major parties. For example, an average of 17% of Americans who initially identified as independents subsequently said they "leaned" Republican, 15% were independents who leaned Democratic, with the remaining 11% not expressing a leaning to either party. Since partisan leaners often share similar attitudes to those who identify with a party outright, the relative proportions of identifiers plus leaners gives a sense of the relative electoral strength of the two political parties. In 2014, an average 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were Democratic-leaning independents, while 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents. With 13% being true independents who by their choices between parties determine who win elections. These voters, on the whole, do not follow politics closely and do not have a strong ideological foundation, so they tend to vote against something, as much as for something.

This would seem to bode well for any Democrat, but party identification does not tell the whole story , after all there are Liberal, Moderate, and Conservative Democrats. Where a voter falls on the political ideology spectrum is just as important, if not more so, in determining a person's vote.

Americans are more likely to identify as conservatives (38%) than as liberals (23%). But the conservative advantage is down to 15 percentage points as liberal identification has edged up. When Gallup began asking about ideological identification in 1992, an average 17% of Americans said they were liberal.

The rise in liberal identification has been accompanied by a decline in moderate identification. At 34% in 2013, it is the lowest Gallup has measured, and down nine points since 1992. Since 2009, conservatives have consistently been the largest U.S. ideological group. The percentage of conservatives has always far exceeded the percentage of liberals, by as much as 22 points in 1996.

Democrats are increasingly likely to Identify as Liberal. Currently, 43% of Democrats say they are liberal, a nearly 50% increase from 29% in 2000. Over the same period, the percentage of Democrats identifying as moderate is down to 36% from 44%, and conservative Democrat identification is down to 19% from 25%. These changes are a telling indicator of the shift in the Democratic Party, from a party that was more ideologically diverse to one that is increasingly dominated by those from the left end of the ideological spectrum.

In fact, the rise in liberal identification among all Americans is due exclusively to the changes among Democrats. Independents are no more likely now than in the past to describe their political views as liberal. The main change in independents' views is that they increasingly call themselves conservative. That could be related to recent developments in party identification, with fewer Americans now identifying as Republicans and more as independents. Thus, the change in independents' ideological preferences may be attributable to former Republicans, who are more likely to be politically conservative, now residing in the independent category.

Americans' political views are undergoing unmistakable change, contributing to greater political polarization in the country. Now, the plurality of Democrats consider themselves to be politically liberal, whereas a decade ago, Democrats were most likely to say they were moderate.

Meanwhile, Republicans, who have always been overwhelmingly conservative, have become increasingly so. One manifestation of that may have been a series of primary election challenges for long-serving GOP members of Congress by candidates aligned with the Tea Party movement.

These data confirm the tendency for Americans who identify with the two major parties to be more ideologically homogeneous than was the case in the past, a tendency that appears to be matched by the increasing polarization between Democratic and Republican members of Congress.

According to CNN in 2008, the last presidential election without an incumbent, 70.4 million women cast ballots versus 60.7 million men.

Having set the stage, let us now look at the possible Democratic candidates:

Elizabeth Warren is not running. According to a friend who would know, she hates political campaigns and running for office. Each day that passes with no action on her part proves him right.

Bernie Sanders is a self-described Socialist, low information voters think of Russia

Joe Biden is described by the Media as having foot-in-mouth disease and would be effected by third term voter fatigue

Martin O'Malley's "rain tax" caused his hand-picked successor's surprise loss to a Republican. Will be called just another Tax and spend Democrat.

Jim Webb is very conservative on climate change and he also said Democrats could "Do a better job with white people." He has declared several months ago, but is having trouble rising money.

Andrew Cuomo has been buffeted by the recent corruption arrest of Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, and criticism from his controversial decision to scrap the panel investigating public corruption

Jerry Brown, I was on his staff for his first presidential campaign in 1976 against Carter, he recently had surgery for cancer and is not interested in running

Hillary Clinton is not perfect, but her views on economic and social issues are closer to the average Democrat, then are the views of any Republican. She will be attacked from the right for being weak on national defense, but the policies she recommended as SoS argue against that, and she has more foreign policy experience then any Republican. In the era of Citizen United, she can raise as much money as the Republicans and she will appoint center-left judges to the Supreme Court, rather then far right judges; so maybe Citizen United will be reversed. She will be the first woman POTUS, and this will attract female voters who may not be Democrats.

She will be a winner, and our next President

[darkangel218]

1. I disagree. nt

[QuestionAlways]

2. OK, make the case

[peacebird]

3. This is so tiresome. It was "definitely" HRC last time til BHO burst onto the scene.

She will not get a cake walk coronation this time either, no matter how many times you post stuff like this. It is a long time until the nomination, and longer still until the election. There WILL be a primary, she *might* win that tho there is not as much certainty as you seem to feel.
Then there will be a general election. I honestly believe if HRC is our nominee we will lose because many progressives dislike her war hawk, big business, banker friendly tendencies and will not trust her new populist messages on helping the middle class. She can parrot Elizabeth Warrens words, but sounds inauthentic doing it. Then there are the Republicans who detest all things Clinton as much as they detest president Obama. They will come out in droves to vote ABC - Anybody But Clinton.

[QuestionAlways]

9. I would love to see a primary, for the good of the party

to prevent people from saying it was a coronation, and to toughen her up, She will not have to move back to the center, because she is already in the center, And what will progressives achieve by not voting for her. A RW republican in the WH, and two more RW justices n the SCOUS

[TheKentuckian]

6. When are you going to? You copied an article mostly about voter identification that says

Democrats are more likely to identify as liberal than anytime in years, that we have a slight ID advantage, that most independents lean one way or the other leaving about 13% that are actually unaffiliated and they are low information and non ideological.

A sentence of editorial crapping out some candidates followed by a declaration that Clinton wins.

[QuestionAlways]

14. Read it again

This is a conservative country and in order to win elections you have to be in the center, HRC is more of a centrist then many the members of DU, and that is a good thing. She will be by far the most electable candidate.

[Scuba]

4. I pretty sure Hillary is a Republican, but disguised as a Democrat.

[Broward]

8. It does seem that way.

[QuestionAlways]

15. The old Rockefeller and Ike wing of the Republican Party, I would agree with you

The new Republican Party, far far from it

[ColesCountyDem]

5. Joe Biden is VERY well-liked in Iowa.

The Clintons have never been well-liked in Iowa. If Joe Biden were to jump in, the dynamics of the 2016 primaries could change quickly.

[QuestionAlways]

16. That is true

But I believe he said he wold not run against her, if she ran

[ColesCountyDem]

39. I don't recall him saying that at all. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Joe is trailing In Iowa by fifty points so he has some work to do, ergo:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html


I like to play chess so I know your next move is to say Hillary had a big lead in 08 and lost. She never led in Iowa at all and if you find an anomalous poll where she did it was never by any amount remotely close to fifty points.

[ColesCountyDem]

40. Or I could point out that ...

... Joe Biden was the most popular 'second choice' candidate of all candidates' supporters in '08.

I think we're both letting a little hot air out of this poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. Good luck to Joe and may all his and your wishes come true./NT

[ColesCountyDem]

42. He's actually not my preferred candidate.

I'm just trying to let some hot air out of the polling for a race where the first vote won't even be cast for 10 months.

[99Forever]

7. Bull.

Opinions two years out don't qualify as facts.

[QuestionAlways]

17. That is true, but as of today, this is the situation

[99Forever]

18. There was a day when...

... "the facts" said the Earth was flat and the Moon was made of green cheese.

So, what was your point?

[QuestionAlways]

22. Those were not facts

What is true today may not be true tomorrow, I just described only what is true today

[99Forever]

23. Wizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

[B Calm]

10. Lot of those independents are too embarrassed to admit they are republicans.

[hrmjustin]

11. Well i think Hillary has the best chance but it is not impossible for another dem to win.

If someone does beat Hillary in a primary it will improve their chances. Doubt it will happen.

They will all have to prove themselves.

Ready for Hillary!

[hobbit709]

12. and either way Wall Street wins.

[G_j]

13. Bernie Sanders ..please..

http://nehttp://news.yahoo.com/video/could-self-proclaimed-socialist-sen-224829698.htmlws.yahoo.com/video/could-self-proclaimed-socialist-sen-224829698.html

[QuestionAlways]

19. I love Bernie and what he stands for

but he could not win. And we must win, the stakes are too high. This is a center right country

[Whiskeytide]

29. I don't think we really are a center...

... right country. I think our media and political perceptions - our self perceptions - make us think we are. Polls reinforce the stereotype. Most people, when asked about the actual issues, come down on the progressive side.

[QuestionAlways]

30. Most people, when asked about the actual issues, come down on the progressive side.

But they elect Representatives who vote against government acting on these issues, because "government is the problem not the solution." Don't you know that is what king Ronnie said, and he is only one step below God

[Whiskeytide]

32. I agree that people vote contrary to their interests...

..., but again, I think that's because they have been conditioned to do so by the daily out-pouring of "we are a center right" country. But ask them about the right to choose. Ask them about corporate dollars in the election process. Ask them about the environment. Ask them about the separation of church and state. Ask them about marriage equality. Ask them about hate crimes. Ask them about racial inequality. Ask them about a woman's right to earn what a man earns in the same job. Ask them about immigration.

What you get is "well, of course I agree with THAT, but the (insert applicable advocacy group here) take it too far"...

That "too far" is what has beaten into the electorate's head by the media and our politicians. "I think a woman should earn the same, but Rush says the Femi-nazis have gone too far". "I think the gays should be able to marry if they want, but my representative says they'll be marrying goats next..."

So, most of my republican friends are actually progressives, they just can't see it, or they don't want to admit it. But they are.

[QuestionAlways]

35. Bingo, you nailed it

But what can we do to change it. They self-identify as Conservatives, and vote for the more conservative party.

[Whiskeytide]

36. Distinguish ourselves and our policies...

... as much as we can. Target independents with the issues they care about. Make it ok to vote your conscience in the booth, even if you don't admit it to your buddies over a beer.

But unfortunately the lines between the parties and policies seems to be blurring, not growing more distinct. We are moving in the wrong direction I fear.

[bigwillq]

20. I'm not voting for either one

But good luck to Hillary if she ends up being the DEM nominee. I have no issue with her being the DEM nominee--if that's what folks decide, then I respect democracy. But I won't be voting for her, and it won't matter since I live in CT, a state that recent trends suggest will go blue with or without my vote.

[QuestionAlways]

25. I wonder how many voters in FL thought that in 2000

[bigwillq]

27. FLA is a lot different than CT.

If I lived in a red/purple state, I would vote differently. But since the DEM is going to win CT, I am free to vote for the candidate of my choice.

[A Simple Game]

21. Thanks for the information. I learned two things from the info.

One, as a liberal I now know I don't have to pay any attention to the vocal minority of conservatives on DU.

And two, well I already knew number 2. Hillary will lose to whoever runs as the Republican candidate. The numbers show that. The majority of the unaffiliated, like me, will not vote for her. One, she is too conservative and hawkish for the liberals. Two, when people are offered a choice between a real Republican and a wanna-be Republican they will chose the real one every time. To win the election you must win a majority of the unaffiliated, Hillary couldn't even win a majority of the Democrats in the 2008 primary. She has no chance of winning.

[QuestionAlways]

24. Did you know more Democratic Primary voters voted for HRC

then voted or Obama. Obama won most of the caucus states where activist choose the delegates

[A Simple Game]

26. I know now that primary voters + caucus voters = less than a majority for Hillary.

Thanks for the update but it changes nothing.

[betterdemsonly]

31. I am not impressed with self-identified liberals, moderates, or conservatives

I am not convinced the average person has a firm grasp of those terms mean as they relate to issues. New Democrats are and always were, way to the right of the public, on Wall Street Reforms, and Public Option. Read Ezra Kleins recent piece on the myth of the moderate voters, and moderate extremism. People identified as moderate aren't moderate at all. They just have a jumble of left and right extreme views like Rosanne Barr. http://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5878293/lets-stop-using-the-word-moderate.

Quote from Vox.

"The only problem is moderates are largely a statistical myth. When you dig into their policy positions, the people who show up as moderates in polls are actually pretty damn extreme — and efforts to empower them may, accidentally, lead to the rise of more extreme candidates.
The statistical mistake behind the myth of the moderates

What happens, explains David Broockman, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley, is that surveys mistake people with diverse political opinions for people with moderate political opinions. The way it works is that a pollster will ask people for their position on a wide range of issues: marijuana legalization, the war in Iraq, universal health care, gay marriage, taxes, climate change, and so on. The answers will then be coded as to whether they're left or right. People who have a mix of answers on the left and the right average out to the middle — and so they're labeled as moderate.

But when you drill down into those individual answers you find a lot of opinions that are well out of the political mainstream. "A lot of people say we should have a universal health-care system run by the state like the British," Broockman said in July 2014. "A lot of people say we should deport all undocumented immigrants immediately with no due process. You'll often see really draconian measures towards gays and lesbians get 16 to 20 percent support. These people look like moderates but they're actually quite extreme."

The result is that voters who hold gentle opinions that are all on the left or the right end up looking a lot more extreme than voters who hold intense opinions that fall all over the political spectrum. Broockman offers this table as illustration:" http://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5878293/lets-stop-using-the-word-moderate

End of Quote

[Orsino]

33. Only if we all demand better.

But if we all demanded better, that in itself would make her a better and more respinsive candidate.

[One_Life_To_Give]

34. Your Right that Illinois Junior Senator was just a distraction

He should have known better than to hand the election to the repub's by challenging the clear party choice.

[L0oniX]

37. Obviously ...republicans are not the only unprincipled voters.

[Corey_Baker08]

38. I Agree However I Want A Heated Primary

[Savannahmann]

43. I disagree.

Hillary has the best name recognition among the people who, unlike us, are not political junkies. Most people can't name their own Senators unless it's right at Election time. Then the name rings a bell. Most people don't pay attention until the last few weeks, or months, of a campaign. So this early, the interesting polling is not on who wins what name recognition poll, that is little more than a high school popularity vote at this point. No, the interesting thing to watch is issues. What issues people find most important according to polling. Especially interesting is the long term trends.

By doing that, you can best position your candidate to take advantage of populist trends. Name recognition may get Hillary into the race, but once Issues and Character come into play, she's going to suffer. If we nominate Hillary, we're going to lose.

We'll start with Unions. Unions want to see their jobs and members protected. Free Trade harms the unions. So any candidate that is going to get massive Union support, must argue in favor of protectionist policies at home regarding economic issues. Hillary is a Pro Free Trade, Pro TPP, Pro Fast Track advocate. So Hillary won't be getting as much support from the Unions as she'll desperately need and will suffer dramatically because of it.

Decriminalization of Marijuana. Hillary has long said a simple no to this. Her fear is that she might appear soft on drugs. However, public opinion has shifted and now pluralities and majorities in most states support legalization. The time is right for a candidate to explain why we would benefit from legalization. Hillary is on the same side of the issue as a vast majority of Republicans, which won't do much to distinguish her as a forward thinking or original mind to take the helm.

NSA spying. Privacy oriented civil rights are important to large numbers of people. Depending on the poll nearly half of the people think that NSA spying on citizens is at best inappropriate, and at worst unconstitutional. Making the argument that such spying is improper, unethical, and should be banned seems to be an obvious choice. Yet, Hillary has long supported the security state. Not because it is a core Democratic Party Principle, but again out of fear. She's afraid of being labeled as soft on terrorists, which is the same reason she voted for the Iraq War, and the PATRIOT ACT as a Senator. Again, her position is not significantly different than almost all the Republicans.

Citizens United. A cause celeb among Liberals. However, Hillary has made statements that seem to support an amendment to overturn CU. However, here again her voting record in the Senate is a problem. Hillary voted for Bankruptcy Reform, that abomination that meant individuals could not write off debt, while business' could continue to write off debt like employee pensions. Again, Hillary made statements to the contrary, but her votes were not in keeping with her statements. At best she looks like a flip flopping political hack that will say anything to get elected. At worst, she is part of the problem of big business cronies in high offices. Worst case she comes off looking like a hypocrite wannabe Republican.

I could go on, and on, and on. How Hillary's statements, and votes, are going to be counter to public opinions on issues. Unless you think that nobody in the Press is going to ask her questions on these issues, then they will be problems in the campaign.

All of those issues that are problematic, the merest tip of the iceberg listed above, will erode support from Hillary in the voting booth. President Obama lost four million votes between 2008 and 2012. Republicans picked up one million, placing them less than five million votes behind. How much can Hillary afford to have eroded away from President Obama's 2012 totals? A small percentage of the total vote and it's a horse race of an election season.

Positions. Hillary has to position herself now in favor of Populist issues, and without doing so now, she loses the credibility factor. Again she ends up looking like a phony desperate to say anything to get elected. Not really a winning combination. So IMO running Hillary is a recipe for defeat. I could be wrong, but everything I read tells me that nobody is considering issues when considering Hillary as the winning candidate.