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pampango

(24,692 posts)
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 05:46 PM Mar 2015

Krugman: repubicans are "desperately trying to claim that the economic recovery now underway is an

illusion."

Liberals, Conservatives, and Jobs

Just about everything I write evokes vituperative reactions from the usual suspects, but never so much as when I point out awkward facts. So there was a lot of mud-slinging when I pointed out last summer that California’s economy — which conservatives said was doomed by tax increases and generally liberal policies — was in fact experiencing an impressive recovery.



Why does this sort of thing bother conservatives so much? Well, it’s an essential part of their belief structure that they have a secret sauce that lets them deliver job growth that liberals can’t, as Rand Paul declared.

Am I claiming that Democratic presidents were responsible for all this job creation? No, not at all, nor do I need to. The point, instead, is that their policies didn’t prevent a lot of employment growth. That is, what you learn from both national experience and the California story is that you can raise taxes on the rich and expand access to health care without killing the economy.

Republicans, by contrast, need to claim that Reaganomics produced all the job growth of the 80s, just as they used to claim that Bush’s “ownership society” was responsible for any and all good news in the 2000s. That’s why they’re desperately trying to claim that the economic recovery now underway is an illusion.

They can’t handle the truth.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/24/liberals-conservatives-and-jobs/?_r=0

"They can't handle the truth." That is the short summary everything republican.
114 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Krugman: repubicans are "desperately trying to claim that the economic recovery now underway is an (Original Post) pampango Mar 2015 OP
The shortest summary for all things republican " The SAME wrong answer for everything". Vincardog Mar 2015 #1
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again hifiguy Mar 2015 #9
They don't expect different results mindwalker_i Mar 2015 #11
Says the Person with the Karl Marx Avatar On the Road Mar 2015 #109
The Problem Is That The Corrupt MSM And Hate Radio Will Claim It For Them. TheMastersNemesis Mar 2015 #2
Imagine how much better a recovery it would be if Johonny Mar 2015 #3
sorry but the only people who are benefiting from any perceived recovery are the rich. liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #4
There are tons of good, middle-class IT jobs. tridim Mar 2015 #6
My middle class job was offshored along with abelenkpe Mar 2015 #13
Anecdote, meet data whatthehey Mar 2015 #24
Actually the chart shows "jobs" created. Not good paying middle class jobs, just "jobs". hughee99 Mar 2015 #30
10 million+ jobs bhikkhu Mar 2015 #27
I'm doing quite well now Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #42
Well good for you. There are many of us who are doing worse than 2009 because liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #53
Y/Y inflation is 0.0%, weekly wage growth is up 2.1 %....and there are other reasons than mentioned. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #54
Except everthing imthevicar Mar 2015 #94
Inflation Truthers? It never ends with Republicans - good economic news is being desperately denied. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #96
Republican!? LOL! imthevicar Mar 2015 #107
One person's experience is not the economy, Ok? Anger is not evidence. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #108
Do you honestly think them thar guvmint bureaucrats don't look at how many ounces there are? progree Mar 2015 #99
Look, imthevicar Mar 2015 #106
I'm not saying inflation does not exist! I'm just saying them thar guvmint bumbling bureaucrats progree Mar 2015 #112
AH-Choo imthevicar Mar 2015 #113
See #97. I too have a huge allergy to bullshit. progree Mar 2015 #114
Good for me and my rich friends Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #57
glad to know you have such compassion for the millions whose low paying jobs liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #58
Every time I go to the grocery something has gone up at least a dollar. Dont call me Shirley Mar 2015 #59
That sucks. I'm sorry. I completely agree. The cost of food is completely ridiculous. liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #60
All measures of income and wages are up when measured in raw (not inflation adjusted) dollars progree Mar 2015 #100
Same here Roland99 Mar 2015 #62
Way to go Uncle Pennybags Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #79
Awesome news! Roland99 Mar 2015 #80
All-some-none. cheapdate Mar 2015 #63
Way to flaunt your wealth Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #64
well as long as you got yours who cares if other are suffering right? liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #69
Then you're going to miss this recipe I found for you to help you get by Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #78
wtf is wrong with you? ND-Dem Mar 2015 #81
My bad. Sometimes I forget cheapdate Mar 2015 #103
The rich ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #66
and as soon as that particular strategy fails..... Sheepshank Mar 2015 #5
Poor things, they know there is no recovery in states they control Warpy Mar 2015 #7
So this is what a recovery looks like? DesMoinesDem Mar 2015 #8
From the near third Great Depression to recovery took time, and these graphs prove nothing about Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #10
Oh, Democrats are supposed to bury their head in the sand and pretend there is a recovery DesMoinesDem Mar 2015 #12
Agreed. There is some head in the sand burying and it is not restricted to party. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #14
There is a recovery. Jobs are one of the last things to recover from a recession. jeff47 Mar 2015 #20
Not to the level they were before the crash eridani Mar 2015 #21
So vote Republican and get a Kansas recovery. Bandit Mar 2015 #22
Statistics from the job market bottom of February 2010 progree Mar 2015 #25
Labor force participation rate is down. If baby boomers weren't retiring en mass- eridani Mar 2015 #73
Employment to Population Ratio is up 0.8% progree Mar 2015 #89
With shitty jobs. No gains have gone to the 995--ut's the 1% who have benefitted. n/t eridani Mar 2015 #91
Shitty jobs that pay better than under Clinton or Bush progree Mar 2015 #98
Inflation adjustments do not apply to real life eridani Mar 2015 #104
The CPI includes health care costs. And yes the econ is shitty progree Mar 2015 #110
Not by every single measure. Family income has been dropping since 2000 eridani Mar 2015 #72
Before the crash we had an unsustainable wild bubble economy progree Mar 2015 #23
that last uptick is the fracking boom Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #34
We'll lose some oil industry jobs because of low oil prices, and we'll gain jobs elsewhere progree Mar 2015 #37
Is "starting" a difficult concept for you to grasp? (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #28
In order to call this a "recovery" Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #32
Again, recovery has a technical meaning. And it isn't "I feel good about the economy". (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #33
then that technical meaning must contradict the plain English meaning Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #35
You mean exactly like every other phrase with a technical meaning? (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #36
So make your "technical meaning" explicit Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #45
it is for the average working person. who doesn't give a rip about what the top 5% think about it. ND-Dem Mar 2015 #84
I used to call people 'sheep' too for merely for holding a different opinion. LanternWaste Mar 2015 #46
Um, "...the near third Great Depression...." truebluegreen Mar 2015 #16
1797 was the first major economic depression in the U.S. raven mad Mar 2015 #19
so which was the first great depression? cause 1797 doesn't qualify. ND-Dem Mar 2015 #85
wtf is wrong with you? Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #87
And President Obama did it without the stimulus of a world war. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #52
gdp is irrelevant if 99% of the gain is captured by the 1%. which has been the case for some time. ND-Dem Mar 2015 #83
Yep! staggerleem Mar 2015 #40
the ones who only care about winning elections will completely ignore these statistics. liberal_at_heart Mar 2015 #51
+100. can i copy that? ND-Dem Mar 2015 #82
No. That's what the crash looked like 5 years ago. Spitfire of ATJ Mar 2015 #93
Raise taxes on the rich and the economy abelenkpe Mar 2015 #15
Bush's "Ownership Society" was what caused worst financial crash in history ErikJ Mar 2015 #17
Kick mahalo pampango Cha Mar 2015 #18
And, I repeat AND rock Mar 2015 #26
Technically, Republicans are right Flo Mingo Mar 2015 #29
Krugman is a cheerleader Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #31
Right, and we're supposed to take your word on economics vs a Nobel Laureate. Sure. stevenleser Mar 2015 #38
This thread wasn't complete Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #43
You are misusing that logical fallacy. That person's credentials are in play in your statement. stevenleser Mar 2015 #47
You might want to review the logical fallacy in question stevenleser Mar 2015 #48
I should say the same to you Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #50
So, cite your evidence that his authority is flawed because of bias or groupthink. Otherwise stevenleser Mar 2015 #55
Krugman is absolutely NOT sining "Everything's Coming Up Roses" here! staggerleem Mar 2015 #41
The only number that matters to the vast majority of Americans is wages Man from Pickens Mar 2015 #44
In 2009, I took a pay cut. staggerleem Mar 2015 #70
From the bottom of a multi-generational abyss.. sendero Mar 2015 #88
11.5 million more jobs and INFLATION-ADJUSTED wages higher than under Clinton and Bush progree Mar 2015 #90
We could go round and round about this.. sendero Mar 2015 #95
Ah, yes. Use them thar govt stats only when they make your case, otherwise deny them progree Mar 2015 #97
+1 nt stevenleser Mar 2015 #101
Believe whatever stats you want.. sendero Mar 2015 #102
I'm not denying that its a weak economy, I'm just saying it has improved from the lows of 2009-10 progree Mar 2015 #111
He is saying here that the recovery in high-tax, Democratic California is better than in low-tax, pampango Mar 2015 #71
So is FUD here on DU.... They sound familiar uponit7771 Mar 2015 #39
They sound under/unemployed. Try it for several years and see how rosy your outlook is. n/t winter is coming Mar 2015 #49
While deserving of empathy, that doesn't make their arguments correct. nt stevenleser Mar 2015 #56
Nor does it make them incorrect. winter is coming Mar 2015 #65
Some folks think summer is coming, some think 'winter is coming', it is what it is. Fred Sanders Mar 2015 #67
It's doing very well for Krugman Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #61
Pa as an example of failed republican economic policy. The Jungle 1 Mar 2015 #68
sounds remarkably familiar. LadyHawkAZ Mar 2015 #74
Oh man MFrohike Mar 2015 #75
The GOP hates America and facts Gothmog Mar 2015 #76
Apparently so do some of the posters here. Kalidurga Mar 2015 #77
Its troubling that many on the left will also say its an illusion. DCBob Mar 2015 #86
If wages are stagnant, "good news" benfitting only the 1% really is an illusion. eridani Mar 2015 #92
Neither Republicans nor Democrats will provide a real recovery Yorktown Mar 2015 #105
 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
9. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:43 PM
Mar 2015

while expecting different results. The simplest explanation of Repuke anything, ever.

mindwalker_i

(4,407 posts)
11. They don't expect different results
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:55 PM
Mar 2015

The results that they get are what they want. The results aren't what we want.

 

TheMastersNemesis

(10,602 posts)
2. The Problem Is That The Corrupt MSM And Hate Radio Will Claim It For Them.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 05:51 PM
Mar 2015

The media is about to cheerlead for them and give them credit.

Johonny

(20,683 posts)
3. Imagine how much better a recovery it would be if
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:01 PM
Mar 2015

Republican Governors hadn't slashed state payrolls, run up huge state deficits by cutting state taxes, passed a federal jobs program, increased minimum wage, not end unemployment benefits, not attacked food stamps, not shutdown the government... Not one fucking thing they've done has been good for the economy.

tridim

(45,358 posts)
6. There are tons of good, middle-class IT jobs.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:19 PM
Mar 2015

But thanks for trying to convince me that the recovery is all an illusion.

Maybe you should reread the article, apparently it's about you.

abelenkpe

(9,933 posts)
13. My middle class job was offshored along with
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 07:17 PM
Mar 2015

Thousands of other once good paying VFX jobs in LA. Chart doesn't illustrate that reality. But glad to hear things are lovely for you.

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
24. Anecdote, meet data
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 10:19 AM
Mar 2015

Your post is the former, the chart shows the latter.

Tens of millions of CA and TX residents in a recovery mean much more than an individual's tale of woe, except to that individual.

hughee99

(16,113 posts)
30. Actually the chart shows "jobs" created. Not good paying middle class jobs, just "jobs".
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 11:36 AM
Mar 2015

The chart doesn't show what you claim it does.

bhikkhu

(10,708 posts)
27. 10 million+ jobs
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 10:39 AM
Mar 2015

You can argue that they are all crap jobs, but 10 million new jobs is still a pretty hefty recovery. Wage growth is clearly needed, but I wouldn't piss on the good for not being the perfect.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
42. I'm doing quite well now
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:05 PM
Mar 2015

Much better than I was in 2009.

I didn't know I qualify for a top hat and monocle.

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
53. Well good for you. There are many of us who are doing worse than 2009 because
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:38 PM
Mar 2015

the cost of living continues to go up and wages continue to stay stagnant.

 

imthevicar

(811 posts)
94. Except everthing
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 07:11 AM
Mar 2015

in a grocery store has been hit with a shrink ray except the prices. 5 oz cans of tuna, smaller toilet paper rolls, 4 and 3.5 lb bags of sugar, 12.5 oz cans of coffee. Their is inflation, they just have gotten better at hiding it.
http://consumerist.com/category/grocery-shrink-ray/

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
96. Inflation Truthers? It never ends with Republicans - good economic news is being desperately denied.
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 08:58 AM
Mar 2015

Last edited Fri Mar 27, 2015, 09:57 AM - Edit history (1)

Inflation as measured the same way for 50 years is....ZERO.

 

imthevicar

(811 posts)
107. Republican!? LOL!
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 08:55 AM
Mar 2015

I'm a socialist! Damned Proud of it! have been for 15 years. Not a dues paying type, but a student, (as we all are.).
And you would all do well to lean the real definition of a conspiracy theorist.

conspiracy theorist; Noun, Person or people who question the statements, actions, and motivations of KNOWN liars, Thieves, and swindlers.

My property taxes have gone up 20%, the cost of groceries have risen, (while the packaging has been smaller) in the last 10 years. My salary has not risen in over 5 years. Please don't bullshit me. I can spot it miles off.

I understand you BELIEVE in a Man. Let me tell you (from an old mans perspective.) it's a waste of time!

progree

(10,864 posts)
99. Do you honestly think them thar guvmint bureaucrats don't look at how many ounces there are?
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 12:48 PM
Mar 2015

[font color = blue]>>in a grocery store has been hit with a shrink ray except the prices. 5 oz cans of tuna, smaller toilet paper rolls, 4 and 3.5 lb bags of sugar, 12.5 oz cans of coffee. Their is inflation, they just have gotten better at hiding it.<< [/font]

Do you really think them thar guvmint bureaucrats that collect data for determining the CPI just look at the price of a can of coffee or whatever, without looking at how many ounces there are? Do you really think they are fooled by this?

Should we turn CPI data collecting over to the private sector so that we won't have incompetent government bureaucrats bungling this important job?

 

imthevicar

(811 posts)
106. Look,
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 08:40 AM
Mar 2015

You fine folks like to preach that Inflation does not exist! I'd just like to remind you all, you live in a dream world.
If you think people who are all ready to sell you out to the TPP, are here for your benefit, Well good luck with that.

progree

(10,864 posts)
112. I'm not saying inflation does not exist! I'm just saying them thar guvmint bumbling bureaucrats
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 11:24 PM
Mar 2015

are not fooled by slightly smaller cans with an ounce or two less. Nice strawman argument though.

Here is inflation (CPI-U) over the last 15 years:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0



Here is the monthly changes:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth

Thanks to energy price drops, inflation in the past year (February 2015 compared to February 2014) is 0.0%. But that will of course start up again as energy prices level off and increase (as they already have begun to do). Indeed, the CPI is up 0.2% in February compared to January.

 

imthevicar

(811 posts)
113. AH-Choo
Sun Mar 29, 2015, 10:46 AM
Mar 2015

Sorry I have an allergy to Bullshit! Nice try, When you realize their both, Aside from Warren, Gleason, and Sanders. The Gop and the Dinos, As they say in flagrante delicto' (Nafta,the TPP, and all the war-mongering over the last 50 years come to mind,) You'll get it soon enough. But be my Guest, and do continue to delude yourself.

progree

(10,864 posts)
114. See #97. I too have a huge allergy to bullshit.
Sun Mar 29, 2015, 08:48 PM
Mar 2015

So if you want to think bumbling guvmint bureaucrats are fooled by a slightly shrunken can of coffee, and that is your version of reality, then I'm sorry to hear that.

Dont call me Shirley

(10,998 posts)
59. Every time I go to the grocery something has gone up at least a dollar.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:10 PM
Mar 2015

My husband has been forced to take a paycut and loss of benefits since 2008. It is getting worse for us, not better.

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
60. That sucks. I'm sorry. I completely agree. The cost of food is completely ridiculous.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:17 PM
Mar 2015

I do a lot of store sale shopping, using coupons, and warehouse shopping and it is still too expensive. So is the cost of rent, and heating. I'm so glad winter is over. The electric bill will be lower now. Thank goodness for Spring.

progree

(10,864 posts)
100. All measures of income and wages are up when measured in raw (not inflation adjusted) dollars
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 01:16 PM
Mar 2015

[font color=blue]>>the cost of living continues to go up and wages continue to stay stagnant.<<[/font]

First of all, can you point me to any measure of income or wages that isn't definitely higher over any number of years you choose, when measured in raw (i.e. not inflation adjusted) dollars?

I know of none.

The only debate is whether the inflation-adjusted income/wage numbers are up, stagnant or down.

I get so damn sick, and I get so damn tired, of the meme about stagnant or declining wages, when the propagandist deliberately leaves out that they are talking about INFLATION-ADJUSTED numbers. When you call them out on it, the propagandist inevitably says everyone knows we're talking about inflation-adjusted numbers, since all that really matters is purchasing power.

But the propagandist -- at least the professional pundits and talk show hosts --know damn well that most people who hear that wages are stagnant or down think that plain old regular unadjusted dollars are what's being talked about.

And when the propagandist adds on that "the cost of living continues going up" after saying "wages are stagnant" (or down), then they are painting a picture in almost everyone's mind that they mean that raw unadjusted wages are stagnant (or down).


Roland99

(53,342 posts)
62. Same here
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:37 PM
Mar 2015

just finagled a nice 30%+ raise to my current salary and now no more traveling every week out of town so I get to be with my family every day now!

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
79. Way to go Uncle Pennybags
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 08:24 AM
Mar 2015

Back then I was on the brink of homelessness and working contract jobs whenever I could land one.

A little over 3 years ago I took a new career path and have been with the same company ever since doing completely different work I had no prior training for.

cheapdate

(3,811 posts)
63. All-some-none.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:45 PM
Mar 2015

"Only" means all. Your statement is obviously false.

My good friend installs replacement windows. His business has picked up significantly since the recovery. The company I work for provides equipment and services to industry. Our business has picked up considerably since the recovery. We've hired extra staff.

I'm not a "supply-sider" and I understand the outrageous system, which we call our economy, for transferring wealth to the already wealthy.

But, the wealthy aren't the "only people" who have benefited in the recovery.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
64. Way to flaunt your wealth
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:51 PM
Mar 2015

I think that poor guy ate an air sandwich for lunch and is planning on eating a shadow for dinner.

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
69. well as long as you got yours who cares if other are suffering right?
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 04:57 PM
Mar 2015

I am so done with you. You are going on ignore.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
78. Then you're going to miss this recipe I found for you to help you get by
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 08:20 AM
Mar 2015

1 package of ramen noodles
1 cup of crocodile tears

 

Sheepshank

(12,504 posts)
5. and as soon as that particular strategy fails.....
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:11 PM
Mar 2015

...the Republicans will claim credit for the recovery because they finally had a majority in the house after the midterms.

By their mere presence, they made the economy what it is. You and I both have read as much, I'm sure.

Warpy

(110,903 posts)
7. Poor things, they know there is no recovery in states they control
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:38 PM
Mar 2015

In fact, some of them have had real downturns, like Wisconsin and Kansas. Their experience shows them that there is no recovery. Their myopia refuses to let them see that Democratically controlled states are recovering and that their own policies are the ones prolonging the recession.

They're morons, you know.

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
10. From the near third Great Depression to recovery took time, and these graphs prove nothing about
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 06:50 PM
Mar 2015

the recovery.....put up a quarterly jobs and GDP graph......denying the recovery is what cons do....was the point of the OP.

 

DesMoinesDem

(1,569 posts)
12. Oh, Democrats are supposed to bury their head in the sand and pretend there is a recovery
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 07:00 PM
Mar 2015

Because the president is a Democrat? Sorry, you may be a sheep, but I am not. I'm not afraid to point out the facts, and this aint no recovery.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
20. There is a recovery. Jobs are one of the last things to recover from a recession.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:57 PM
Mar 2015

"A recovery" has technical meaning. It doesn't mean "I feel good about the economy".

Jobs are one of the last things to come back after a recession. They've finally started coming back.

Bandit

(21,475 posts)
22. So vote Republican and get a Kansas recovery.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 08:39 AM
Mar 2015
imo the economy is doing far better than when Obama first took office. By every single measure that is truth.

progree

(10,864 posts)
25. Statistics from the job market bottom of February 2010
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 10:24 AM
Mar 2015

[font color = blue]>>imo the economy is doing far better than when Obama first took office. By every single measure that is truth.<<[/font]

Almost. I track the main statistics beginning from the bottom of the job market in February 2010 (13 months after Obama took office)

Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 60 months thru Feb 28, 2015: 2'15 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru February 28, 2015)
+11,477,000 Payroll Jobs
+3,308,000 Labor Force
+9,716,000 Employed
-6,408,000 Unemployed
+0.8% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-2.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-4.3% Official (U-3) Unemployment rate
-6.0% U-6 unemployment rate (counts those who did any job-hunting activity even once in past 12 months)
-2,301,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-156,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+10,056,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+4.09% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers

The links to the data above
# Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
# Employed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
# Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709
# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194
# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000
# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000
# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

eridani

(51,907 posts)
73. Labor force participation rate is down. If baby boomers weren't retiring en mass-
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 08:25 PM
Mar 2015

--all the other stats would look pretty shitty.

progree

(10,864 posts)
89. Employment to Population Ratio is up 0.8%
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 10:52 PM
Mar 2015

Seems to me that there is too much discussion in the media of the Labor Force Participation Rate (the employed plus the jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks, all divided by the population) and not enough attention to what seemingly matters more -- the Employment to Population Ratio. Why aren't we celebrating the increase in the percentage of the population that is employed -- a figure that has been (slowly) moving up since the job market bottom, despite the growing wave of baby boomer retirements?

(The Population in the above is the civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over, yes, including all elderly people, even centenarians)

>> [font color = blue]73. Labor force participation rate is down. If baby boomers weren't retiring en mass- --all the other stats would look pretty shitty. <<[/font]

You are partly right that the unemployment rates U-3 (down 4.3 percentage points from the job market bottom) and U-6 (down 6.0 percentage points) would not be down as much if more boomers were in the labor force (thus increasing the denominator in the unemployment rate). But I can't think of any reason that the other statistics in #25 would be worse off if more boomers had stayed in the labor force.

progree

(10,864 posts)
98. Shitty jobs that pay better than under Clinton or Bush
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 12:09 PM
Mar 2015

As for how bad wages are -- here is the average hourly wage of production and non-supervisory employees, adjusted for inflation (and expressed in chained 1982-1984 dollars)

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032



Note this statistic does not include CEOs or any other kind of executive. This doesn't include business owners. This doesn't include managers or supervisors. These are all people working for someone else for a paycheck who have noone reporting to them. These are not the financial and economic glitteratti. And yet they are doing better than under Bush, even better than under Clinton.

Here's the series without inflation-adjustment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008

eridani

(51,907 posts)
104. Inflation adjustments do not apply to real life
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 01:30 AM
Mar 2015

People perceive the current economy as shitty because it is shitty. The chart doesn't mention anything about health care costs doubling since 2000.

progree

(10,864 posts)
110. The CPI includes health care costs. And yes the econ is shitty
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 11:11 PM
Mar 2015

Last edited Tue Mar 31, 2015, 10:54 PM - Edit history (1)

I'm not saying the economy is non-shitty, just that its improved significantly from the lows of 2009-2010. But that was a very deep sucky hole.

eridani

(51,907 posts)
72. Not by every single measure. Family income has been dropping since 2000
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 08:23 PM
Mar 2015

Granted, Obama could have done more about this had he not been prevented from doing so by Republicans.

progree

(10,864 posts)
23. Before the crash we had an unsustainable wild bubble economy
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 09:57 AM
Mar 2015

It's true we're not recovered to the level of the housing bubble years or even the tech bubble years in most statistics. But pre-crash was the height of the sick feverish unsustainable housing bubble economy when people were using their homes as ATMs to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year. And the financial sector was booming like crazy on derivatives. I don't think that's the economy we should want or compare to or pine and sigh for.

The past year has been particularly heartening (for the most part):

Over the last year (last 12 months):
+3,296,000 Payroll Jobs (Establishment Survey, CES0000000001)
+1,314,000 Labor Force
+2,996,000 Employed
-1,682,000 Unemployed
+0.5% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-0.2% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-1.2% Unemployment rate
-1.6% U-6 unemployment rate (It includes anyone that looked for work even once in the past year)
-569,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+ 89,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,975,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+3.19% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers

I also note that the U.S. is about the only developed economy that is showing decent growth. Japan wavers between recession and being barely out of recession. Europe is just barely above water growth-wise.

As for how bad wages are -- here is the average hourly wage of production and non-supervisory employees, adjusted for inflation (and expressed in chained 1982-1984 dollars)

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032



Note this statistic does not include CEOs or any other kind of executive. This doesn't include business owners. This doesn't include managers or supervisors. These are all people working for someone else for a paycheck who have noone reporting to them. These are not the financial and economic glitteratti. And yet they are doing better than under Bush, even better than under Clinton.

Here's the series without inflation-adjustment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
34. that last uptick is the fracking boom
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 12:06 PM
Mar 2015

which is coming right back out with the crashed oil price, none of those shale projects are economically viable at today's prices and they're being shut down in huge numbers

progree

(10,864 posts)
37. We'll lose some oil industry jobs because of low oil prices, and we'll gain jobs elsewhere
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 01:00 PM
Mar 2015

in the economy because of ... low oil prices. People who spend less money filling their tanks with gas have more money to spend elsewhere, creating jobs in those other sectors.

That said, I concede that inflation-adjusted wages have gotten a boost in the last several months thanks to reduced CPI growth (actually negative in Nov., Dec., and Jan.) due to falling energy costs. That's a one-time event we're probably not going to see repeated, so we'll lose that tail wind to inflation-adjusted wages. Anyway, we'll see.

I think -- even if inflation-adjusted wages were merely flat -- the fact that we have 11.5 million more jobs than at the jobs bottom in February 2010 is a definite recovery by any definition (and not just for the 1%, they already had jobs/income), and a 0.8% growth in the employment to population ratio despite the surge of baby boomer retirements. And its a heck of a lot better than any other developed economy is doing.

Were recovering, but true, we're not "recovered". But if "recovered" means back to the sick, feverish, unsustainable housing bubble years, then, no thanks.

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
32. In order to call this a "recovery"
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 12:04 PM
Mar 2015

You have to average in massive gains being made by the one percent with the stagnation being experienced by everyone else.

Filter out how well the 1% are doing - because frankly no good person should waste a moment fretting about their welfare - and there is no recovery.

If you are promoting a recovery you are extolling the virtues of increased wealth disparity, because that's what this "recovery" is, over 100% of it.

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
35. then that technical meaning must contradict the plain English meaning
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 12:07 PM
Mar 2015

at least as far as any regular, non-privileged person is concerned

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
45. So make your "technical meaning" explicit
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:08 PM
Mar 2015

Go ahead. Once you do it should be obvious that the "technical meaning" has very little real-world meaning to 99% of the population.

 

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)
84. it is for the average working person. who doesn't give a rip about what the top 5% think about it.
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 12:08 PM
Mar 2015
 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
46. I used to call people 'sheep' too for merely for holding a different opinion.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:08 PM
Mar 2015

Like you, I used to call people 'sheep' too merely for holding a different opinion. It allowed me to feel much, much more clever than I really was. Thankfully, grade school was a long time ago, and we've since dispensed with the self-validating churlishness of our childhoods...

raven mad

(4,940 posts)
19. 1797 was the first major economic depression in the U.S.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:47 PM
Mar 2015

There's a decent article about both economic "panics" and major U.S. depressions here, as well as brief but good explanations behind each: http://247wallst.com/investing/2010/09/09/the-13-worst-recessions-depressions-and-panics-in-american-history/2/

 

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)
83. gdp is irrelevant if 99% of the gain is captured by the 1%. which has been the case for some time.
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 12:04 PM
Mar 2015
 

staggerleem

(469 posts)
40. Yep!
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 01:58 PM
Mar 2015

That's what "recovery" looks like when the only ones experiencing it are those who need it LEAST!

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
51. the ones who only care about winning elections will completely ignore these statistics.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:35 PM
Mar 2015

All they care about is how many jobs were added during a Democratic administration.

abelenkpe

(9,933 posts)
15. Raise taxes on the rich and the economy
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 07:23 PM
Mar 2015

Improves? Democrats should embrace this on a national level.

It's not like rich people weren't still rich when the top marginal rate was 90 percent.

 

ErikJ

(6,335 posts)
17. Bush's "Ownership Society" was what caused worst financial crash in history
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 08:54 PM
Mar 2015

It made the No Income, No job, Assets Liar subprime loans legal in all 50 states. Which the big banks then bundled into toxic derivatives.

Flo Mingo

(492 posts)
29. Technically, Republicans are right
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 10:44 AM
Mar 2015

But only if you add "in China".

So...........Republicans are better at creating jobs...........in China.

There. I agree.

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
31. Krugman is a cheerleader
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 12:01 PM
Mar 2015

He's been in a position of privilege so long that it doesn't matter to him if a job is making tacos or engineering infrastructure, a job is a job. It's not like he is going to be working any of the new, low-wage jobs that are replacing good ones.

Plain fact is that wages are going nowhere, and until they do, there is no recovery for the vast majority of people in this country.

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
43. This thread wasn't complete
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:06 PM
Mar 2015

without a call to authority fallacy

well, guess what - all the excuse-making in the world doesn't make wages rise faster than inflation

so as long as you keep that attitude you should not be surprised at all if you find you convince no one that there is some kind of recovery in progress

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
47. You are misusing that logical fallacy. That person's credentials are in play in your statement.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:10 PM
Mar 2015

Just like a Doctor is more credible on medical issues than a non-Doctor.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
48. You might want to review the logical fallacy in question
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:15 PM
Mar 2015
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-authority.html

This fallacy is committed when the person in question is not a legitimate authority on the subject.
.
.
.

This sort of reasoning is fallacious when the person in question is not an expert. In such cases the reasoning is flawed because the fact that an unqualified person makes a claim does not provide any justification for the claim. The claim could be true, but the fact that an unqualified person made the claim does not provide any rational reason to accept the claim as true.

Since this sort of reasoning is fallacious only when the person is not a legitimate authority in a particular context, it is necessary to provide some acceptable standards of assessment. The following standards are widely accepted:

The person has sufficient expertise in the subject matter in question.

----------------------------------
As Krugman is an economics professor at Princeton and a Nobel Laureate, your attempt to proclaim my statement an appeal to authority fallacy is invalid.
 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
50. I should say the same to you
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:33 PM
Mar 2015

Have a Wiki article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority


Fallacious examples of using the appeal include any appeal to authority used in the context of logical reasoning, and appealing to the position of an authority or authorities to dismiss evidence, as authorities can come to the wrong judgments through error, bias, dishonesty, or falling prey to groupthink. Thus, the appeal to authority is not a generally reliable argument for establishing facts.


The credentials of the authority are immaterial, and appealing to them is a logical fallacy.
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
55. So, cite your evidence that his authority is flawed because of bias or groupthink. Otherwise
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:01 PM
Mar 2015

your use of the fallacy still fails.

Any by the way, evidence means links with a source that directly refutes his contentions specifically, not just your say so.

 

staggerleem

(469 posts)
41. Krugman is absolutely NOT sining "Everything's Coming Up Roses" here!
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:02 PM
Mar 2015

He's just pointing out that on SOME level, things ARE improving - and that the Right denies even THAT much!

 

Man from Pickens

(1,713 posts)
44. The only number that matters to the vast majority of Americans is wages
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 02:07 PM
Mar 2015

and they are stagnant and not showing any signs of improvement

 

staggerleem

(469 posts)
70. In 2009, I took a pay cut.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 05:30 PM
Mar 2015

The company I worked for (and STILL work for, BTW - I started this job the day Bill Clinton was inaugurated) was in trouble, and the engineering staff were all requested to take a 20% cut in pay. We were also given the option of only working 4 days a week, but the owners (this company is small, and privately held, and NOBODY puts in more time or sweat than the owners) pointed out that the only way out of the hole we were in was sexy, new products, and since we were the guys who'd be designing them, as much time as we were willing to give would be very appreciated.

A couple of our engineers did, in fact, quit. Most of us hung on, and put in our usual 40+ hours a week for 20% less cash. I can't speak for anyone else on staff, but just this year, I'm starting to earn just slightly more than I did in 2008.

Yes, this is absolutely anecdotal, and essentially the opposite of "evidence". It's just MY story - but there are hundreds of similar ones. Slowly (TOO slowly, in the minds of most) things ARE getting better.

It took Dubya & his cronies a full 8 years to REALLY trash the American Dream for most of us. So far, we've only given the Democrats 6 years to fix it. Did you ever have an auto accident? How long did it take to wreck the car? Under a minute, I'd bet. How long did it take to get it FIXED? Even if we ignore the days the car sits at the body shop waiting for someone to start the work, we're still talking a day or two - 8 to 16 hours - to fix the damage done in a minute. You think we should be able to repair a nation and it's economy faster that that? Dream on, Pickens-boy!

sendero

(28,552 posts)
88. From the bottom of a multi-generational abyss..
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 03:54 PM
Mar 2015

... yes, they are improving.

As long as folks don't use the word "recovery" I'm ok with it. Because "recovery" implies getting back to where you were, and that is not happening. Not this year, not next year, probably not ever.

progree

(10,864 posts)
90. 11.5 million more jobs and INFLATION-ADJUSTED wages higher than under Clinton and Bush
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 11:05 PM
Mar 2015

counts as being a recovery underway.

I think -- even if inflation-adjusted wages were merely flat (instead of being higher than under Clinton or G.W. Bush,- see #23) the fact that we have 11.5 million more jobs than at the jobs bottom in February 2010 is a definite recovery by any definition (and not just for the 1%, they already had jobs/income), and a 0.8% growth in the employment to population ratio despite the surge of baby boomer retirements. And its a heck of a lot better than any other developed economy is doing.

Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 60 months thru Feb 28, 2015: 2'15 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru February 28, 2015)
+11,477,000 Payroll Jobs
+3,308,000 Labor Force
+9,716,000 Employed
-6,408,000 Unemployed
+0.8% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-2.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-4.3% Official (U-3) Unemployment rate
-6.0% U-6 unemployment rate (counts those who did any job-hunting activity even once in past 12 months)
-2,301,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
-156,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+10,056,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+4.09% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers

(See #25 for links to all of the above data).

We're recovering, but true, we're not "recovered". But if "recovered" means back to the sick, feverish, unsustainable housing bubble years, then, no thanks.

sendero

(28,552 posts)
95. We could go round and round about this..
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 07:25 AM
Mar 2015

... for a long time and I've lost my enthusiasm for that deal but I will make a couple of points.

"Inflation adjusted" is only meaningful is actual inflation numbers are used. Nobody who is paying attention thinks our "CPI" is even in the ballpark of accurate. Nor are the GDP numbers.

I'll tell you what I tell everyone here, when the ZIRP is ended then and only then will our economy be approaching anything resembling a "recovery". ZIRP is the Fed's life-support equivalent to a respirator in the ICU. And it is of itself doing plenty of damage as we speak.

All those fancy cooked numbers do not impress me, call me when interest rates are back to something like normal.

BTW - the state of the economy doesn't have much to do with Obama IMHO. The whole world economy, especially Europe and China, but including many other regions, is softening as we speak. And softening from an already pretty weak level (well except for China). The problems we face are huge and systemic, and the world is so interconnected we cannot "recover" on our own any more.

progree

(10,864 posts)
97. Ah, yes. Use them thar govt stats only when they make your case, otherwise deny them
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 12:02 PM
Mar 2015

[font color = blue] >>"Inflation adjusted" is only meaningful is actual inflation numbers are used. Nobody who is paying attention thinks our "CPI" is even in the ballpark of accurate. Nor are the GDP numbers.<< [/font]

Ahh. An inflation - truther. Ohhhhhhh, thank you for paying attention!

I talk about this one in my section "Beware the tricks of the economic pundits out there" in the post in my sigline.

(7). Using government statistics and trickery (see techniques in http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439) to make some point, and when you call them on the trickery, and give them the correct information, they tell you they don't trust government statistics! In other words, they are fine with government statistics and use them (or studies derived from them) if they can twist them to fit their viewpoint, otherwise, they don't trust them

#######################################

If you don't like inflation-adjusted wages, well here are the raw not-inflation-adjusted numbers for production and non-supervisory workers:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000008



sendero

(28,552 posts)
102. Believe whatever stats you want..
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 03:40 PM
Mar 2015

.... but Zero Interest Rate Policy is the economy on life support, if you can't believe that then you are out of touch with reality.

progree

(10,864 posts)
111. I'm not denying that its a weak economy, I'm just saying it has improved from the lows of 2009-10
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 11:15 PM
Mar 2015

pampango

(24,692 posts)
71. He is saying here that the recovery in high-tax, Democratic California is better than in low-tax,
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 05:45 PM
Mar 2015

republican Texas.

He is not saying that it is a great recovery or that everything is fine. He is ridiculing the republican mantra that economic growth is only possible by cutting taxes, regulations and weakening unions. He uses a comparison of California and Texas to demonstrate this.

Nowhere does he say that the recovery is fantastic or that it is reaching the people is should. He simply is disproving the republican contention that job growth cannot occur with high taxes.

winter is coming

(11,785 posts)
65. Nor does it make them incorrect.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 04:09 PM
Mar 2015

The media and politicians tell us that the economy's doing better, that there are jobs being created. Observable reality tells us that the new jobs are seldom of the same calibre as the old ones and that newspaper articles don't pay the rent or buy groceries.

Economists care about the economic indicators, but most ordinary people want to know if they can make their bills and whether anything will be left over afterwards. Wanna tout the recovery? Knock yourself out, but happy talk won't go very far with the people not experiencing it.

Capt. Obvious

(9,002 posts)
61. It's doing very well for Krugman
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 03:31 PM
Mar 2015

He's lighting his cigars with Ben Franklins while the rest of us are murdering each other over that dead rat in the alley.

Must be good to be rich Paul.

 

The Jungle 1

(4,552 posts)
68. Pa as an example of failed republican economic policy.
Wed Mar 25, 2015, 04:55 PM
Mar 2015

Pa is the perfect example of failed republican economic policy. Republicans had complete control of our state for four years. Our economy is in the tank, we are in deep debt and we are 49th in job creation. Republicans got nothing done and the state is suffering. Funny thing the tax cuts did not create any jobs or help our economy one bit.

Pa. does not stand alone with these republican economic failures. Republicans need to answer for these failures. We all need to ask why their economic policies are failing and what they will do differently.

MFrohike

(1,980 posts)
75. Oh man
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 02:21 AM
Mar 2015

Krugman's bored cheer-on-the-home-team shit is way past the sell date. He's selling a dubious story and he knows it. He can yap all day about jobs growth, but I wouldn't be cheering where most of the growth has occurred. As Dean Baker has noted, the greatest amount of openings, and growth, in employment over the last few years is in retail.

If Rand Paul and the other idiots are right, rest assured that it has nothing to do with astute analysis. It's nothing but a coincidence. If 30 million people got laid off overnight under one of them, they'd claim the employment situation had unprecedented opportunity. What they say can safely be disregarded, in terms of whether to believe their analysis, because it's almost always wrong. They might, and there are troubling signs underneath the headline numbers, be right. Just know they have no clue why if they are.

As an aside, criticism of Krugman is usually ineptly rebutted with the tired line of "he has a Nobel Prize." Cool. So do Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek. If their astounding success at being wrong nearly 100% of the time is the standard for that prize, maybe the good professor's defenders should pipe down about it. It's not for nothing that Gunnar Myrdal, co-winner with Hayek in 1974, called for its abolition due to the aforementioned awards.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
86. Its troubling that many on the left will also say its an illusion.
Thu Mar 26, 2015, 12:38 PM
Mar 2015

Which is unfortunate as Krugman states its significant to note that the economy can thrive quite nicely along with liberal policies. The disgruntled left should be singing the praises of the Obama/Democratic economic recovery if they are truely interested in pushing for A more progressive goverment.

eridani

(51,907 posts)
92. If wages are stagnant, "good news" benfitting only the 1% really is an illusion.
Fri Mar 27, 2015, 02:46 AM
Mar 2015

Saying things are4 great when most people are either treading water or activly losing ground is NOT a good way to get jobs.

 

Yorktown

(2,884 posts)
105. Neither Republicans nor Democrats will provide a real recovery
Sat Mar 28, 2015, 01:43 AM
Mar 2015

No matter who, no matter what they do, it's hard times ahead.

The debt has gone too far (initiated by Reagan, carried on by all). There will be Hell to pay.

(with a special mention to GW's truly idiotic economic policies)

The stock markets are way overvalued (by half?). Obama's QE contributed to that bubble.

The long term Kondratieff innovation boom and bust cycle is nearing bust soon.


All in all, repent, the end is nigh

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