French left set to win parliament vote: polls

[Eugene]

Source: Reuters

French left set to win parliament vote: polls

PARIS | Thu May 10, 2012 10:05pm EDT

(Reuters) - The French left will trounce the conservative UMP party of outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy in parliamentary elections next month after Francois Hollande won a presidential runoff vote at the weekend, two polls indicated on Friday.

Hollande's Socialists and other left-wing partner parties could together win 45-46 percent of the vote in the June 10 first round of the election, compared with about one-third for the UMP.

The left aims to build on its momentum after voters swept Hollande to victory on Sunday, bringing the Socialists back to government in Paris after a decade in opposition.

Pollsters CSA found that the Socialists would take 32 percent in the first round of the parliamentary election while allied Greens would get 4 percent and the Left Front 10 percent.

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Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/11/us-france-election-polls-idUSBRE84A03G20120511

[David__77]

1. Hopefully the Left Front does well...

The Socialists are pretty centrist.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. As long as they don't split the vote in constituencies

The National Assembly is composed of 577 members elected every five years in single-member constituencies by the runoff voting system. Candidates who obtain both an absolute majority of valid votes cast and a vote total equal to at least one quarter of the registered electorate are elected in the first round. Otherwise, a runoff election is held among candidates polling a number of votes greater than or equal to one-eight (12.5%) of the electorate; if fewer than two candidates meet this requirement, the runoff is held between the top two candidates. In the second round, the candidate that obtains the largest number of votes is elected to office.

http://electionresources.org/fr/

Given the figures that Reuters report, the National Front may well qualify for the second round in many constituencies - keeping the right wing vote split. So you hope that left wing candidates will be able to co-operate in any case where it looks like a left wing split would allow a UMP candidate to win after all.