Politico: The campaign might be lost even before the GOP picks a nominee.

[RandySF]

PERSONAL NOTE: For all the talk of Sarah Palin and the financial crises in 2008, the ultimate outcome was decided by the end of 2007, and the above factors plus Obama's historic election made only served to make it a blowout.


The end of the 2016 presidential election is actually much closer than you might think.

In every game there are decisive moments that determine the ultimate outcome. We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off. If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined before the Republican Party has even selected their nominee. That uncomfortable fact means that the longer and more divisive the Republican primary, the less likely the party will be to win back the White House in 2016.

In eight out of the last nine presidential elections these decisive periods of time can all be traced back to the run up to the general election—not the fall campaign. With the exception of the 2000 election—which was an outlier on every front—voters locked in their attitudes about the direction of the country, the state of their own well-being and the presidential candidates—and their political party—prior to the start of the general election. Once voters’ views solidified, subsequent campaign events or activities simply served to reinforce their initial perceptions about the candidate and party best prepared to lead the country.

In general, the job approval ratings of the incumbent president, regardless of whether they are running for reelection, serve as a proxy for the electorate’s mood and have historically been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes. And the public’s view of the state of the economy and its expectations for the future are the strongest drivers of the job approval ratings of the sitting president. Since 1980 there have been five presidential elections where the incumbent had a job approval rating near or above 50 percent prior to the start of the general election. In each of these elections, the incumbent’s party won the election. In the three instances when the incumbent president’s job approval fell below 40 percent prior to the start of the general election, their party lost each time.


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/the-end-of-the-2016-election-is-closer-than-you-think-119947.html#ixzz3fjjrlvdP

[zipplewrath]

1. which makes the primary more important than ever.

If the GOP has already lost, this is the time to elect a Bernie. It's our best chance.

[DonViejo]

2. Great analysis; thanks for posting.

[rpannier]

3. Don't start counting your chickens yet

The Mexicans love Donald
So do the Latins
And don't forget he gets along with the blacks too
He's a game changer
Just ask him

on note: I hope I don't need a sarcasm tag
But just in case

[JDPriestly]

4. Interesting.