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rogerashton

(3,920 posts)
Mon Jul 13, 2015, 08:42 AM Jul 2015

A settlement for Greece will not save the Euro, nor would Grexit

The Euro is a dead parrot. Here is the arithmetic:

1) Germany runs an export surplus of over 7% of their GDP. That's seven cents of every Euro produced in Germany sold abroad and not paid for with German imports.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/germany-posting-record-surplus-gives-fodder-to-economy-s-critics

2) When one country runs an export surplus, its trading partners run deficits. That's basically 1-1=0.

3) When a country runs a deficit, its debt to the surplus country increases. Imports not paid for with exports are paid for with IOU's of one kind or another, and those IOU's increase the deficit country's indebtedness.

4) It does not matter whether the debt is public or private. If it is private, it will become unsustainable, and the government will have to assume that debt to bail out its banks and entrepreneurs. This is what happened in Ireland and Spain. In Greece they paid for their imports by selling the Germans government bonds.

Whatever the shortcomings of Greek governance, and they are many, the cause of their indebtedness is the German surplus. Had they had balanced trade, their government debt would have been sold to Greeks, and that could become unsustainable, but it would not have created a Euro crisis.

Can the Euro be saved? Yes, but it will not. The solution would be some mechanism that would put pressure on surplus countries to reduce their surpluses. A European export tax on exports of surplus countries, that would ratchet up until the surplus is eliminated, would do it. Of course, Germany would never stand for that.

It is NOT necessary to have transfers from one country to another to pay for pension shortfalls and such, as some have argued. The export tax could be returned to Germany to reduce other taxes there or to pay a social dividend to common Germans. But, so long as the gospel of "competitiveness" is believed, no solution that will actually work will ever be accepted.

The Euro will eventually collapse, and quite possibly the sooner this happens the less catastrophe it will be.

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