The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis

[CajunBlazer]

Last edited Tue Jul 28, 2015, 02:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Every four years we hear commentators say that the upcoming elections will be of great importance. However, the 2016 Presidential and Senatorial election may well be absolutely pivotal. Those elections could well affect the political climate for an entire generation or more, not only because they will determine whether the Republicans or the Democrats will control the executive branch and half of the legislative branch of our government, but also because they will probably decide whether conservatives or liberals will control the third branch of government, the Supreme Court, for years to come.

Assuming that there are no changes to the Supreme Court between now and then, when the next President takes office in January of 2017, the oldest Justice will be 83. The next two oldest will be 80 and a fourth Justice will be 78. The next oldest justice will be a relatively young 68. While Supreme Court Justices are appointed for life, of the last 11 Justices who left the court, 10 retired. Only Justice William Rehnquist died in office at the age of 81. The average retirement age for other ten Justices was 79 years old.

http://www.cajunscomments.com/the-supreme-court-after-the-upcoming-elections-an-analysis/

[PoliticAverse]

1. That's a very wordy article to say - it's important which party controls the Presidency and Senate.

[CajunBlazer]

4. Well....

....it's a little more complicated than that. I had to sum it up I would say that given that there are two liberals who are among the four oldest on the court and only one true conservative, it is more important that the Democrats maintain the Presidency and take back control of the Senate.

[House of Roberts]

2. If the Dems keep the Presidency,

regardless of whether they regain the Senate, if a conservative leaves the court, you may see a lot of 4-4 decisions before a new justice is confirmed. Think about what a 4-4 decision means. If the circuit courts become the deciding level in the judiciary, a large amount of jurisdiction-shopping may take place, with contradictory decisions from the different circuits.

[CajunBlazer]

5. Not necessarily

The only true conservative who might be likely to leave the court in the next few years is Scalia who is now 79. After the gay marriage and AHC decisions,I don't think the conservatives consider Kennedy a reliable conservative. Chances are that the the vote will be 4 to 3 favoring the liberals with Kennedy going either way. So the vote would either be 5 to 3 or 4 to 4.

[surrealAmerican]

3. 1916 election?

Wilson's got it in the bag. Although he may not be able to avoid the war in Europe for another term ...