Obama and Romney are not as neck-and-neck as they seem.

[boxman15]

President Obama is kicking Mitt Romney's ass in the electoral college. Obama's path to 270 is much, much easier and allows for the president to take several paths to get to that magic number. Romney will have a very tough time getting 270. Even states Romney should have no trouble winning are in play, even if Obama is a heavy underdog.

Take a look at these three maps:

270towin.com (Obama 255, Romney 161, Tossup 122):
http://www.270towin.com/2012-election-polling-map/obama-romney/

RealClearPolitics (Obama 243, Romney 170, Tossup 125):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Pollster (Obama 284, Romney 170, Tossup 84):
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Obama has a much, much easier path to 270. Not only that, but states Romney should have no problem winning normally are in play. This could end up looking a lot like 2008, where McCain and Obama were relatively close in the national vote, but Obama crushed McCain in the Electoral College.

Don't expect to see anything about this in the MSM, though.

ETA: This doesn't mean we should be complacent at all. We need to be on guard at all times against the GOP, but don't become despondent with this constant stream of negative news.

[Zalatix]

1. I disagree. Democrats need to fight like it's Romney 284 Obama 170.

The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. We need to kick ass non-stop until election day. And then start putting up liberal Democrats to run against Blue Dog candidates and Republicans in Congress and Statewide elections.

[boxman15]

2. True. I agree 100%.

I'll edit my OP to make that point clearer. Work needs to be done.

[gateley]

13. I agree with you guys -- the Anybody But Obama mind set alone

causes me concern. I don't think any States can be taken for granted. In my opinion, the backlash from the mess Bush left behind, the inability to DO much of anything in Congress (most people don't pay as close attention and don't understand JUST how obstructive the Republicans are) and the slower-than-hoped for "back to normal" MAY make some people vote against Obama. Some people are so frustrated they take the "it couldn't be any worse than it is now" attitude.

Who knows? At the beginning of the 2008 campaign I didn't think the country would elect a Black guy for President, so it's not as though I have my finger on the pulse of the American People. It's just that I like Obama so much and fear the Republicans even more, that I probably worry more than I should.

But your OP calmed my nervousness somewhat, so thanks!

[DJ13]

3. & Obama needs to govern like he's behind as well

[Phlem]

19. More to the point

"We need to kick ass non-stop until election day." And after because "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."

-p

[Roselma]

4. Pollsters will tell you that national polls are advance

indicators, and that state polls are infrequent and trail the national polls. If somebody would conduct 51 individual polls today, the electoral map would tighten up greatly. It is true that Obama will still likely be ahead in the projected electoral college due to the strength of support for him in the solid blue states. This will still be a hard-fought, down-to-election night contest though. Never let down your guard or assume anything just based upon those electoral college map projections. Voters are fickle, and Romney will have boatloads more money to advertise than Obama.

[WCGreen]

5. Not necessarily.

It all depends on the spread of the pro Obama states and pro Romney states.

For instance, in Texas, the largest red state, is going for Romney at a 65 - 35 clip while in California, the largest blue state, Obama was running 58 - 42. There are a lot of states that are far more Red than the Bluest state are blue.

[tritsofme]

23. There are a lot of very red states, but they are small

With the exception of TX, and even there I don't believe Bush came close to 65%.

Democrats can run up the popular vote score in states like CA NY IL.

I agree with Roselma, many of these state polls are backward looking.

[WCGreen]

26. On The Real Clear website, you can click on the state to see the latest polls

conducted in that state...

I picked out eight and it looks as if they have all had polls taken from Late April far into May....

[Suji to Seoul]

6. electoral-vote.com map of electoral votes (curently)

Obama
STRONG - 200
Weak - 43
barely - 80

TIED - 20

Rmoney
STRONG - 76
Weak - 94
barely - 25

OBAMA - 323
Rmoney - 195

Tied - 20 (AZ and CO)

www.electoral-vote.com

[eggplant]

21. Those are from the last election.

He's redesigning his site, and will start having current polling data when it is ready.

This Website is in the processing of being redesigned. It is a slow process, as is anything involving software, but hopefully will be ready by early June. Then we will start tracking the electoral college on a daily basis.

[Suji to Seoul]

25. scroll over the states. the polling is current.

[eggplant]

29. !!! My bad.

I assumed, from the webwaster's comment, that he wasn't posting any polls yet. Silly me.

[aggiesal]

27. I do not trust this electoral map . . .

I'll tell you why

There are states with Republican controlled legisltures and Republican govednors that are changing the rules of the way the electoral college votes in their state.
They are changing it so that if your district is one by RMoney but the state is won by Obama, then RMoney will get that electoral vote. This way no more Winner-Takes-All.
If the Republicans can split some of the sure vote states for Obama, they ould steal the election.

[aggiesal]

33. Read he following from Mother Jones

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/09/gop-electoral-college-plan-beat-obama-2012

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

34. True, but since that article, nothing has changed about the EC

That came out last September. I have no doubt the GOP will push this, but not in time for this election.

This is not the one they are interested in stealing.

[Politicalboi]

7. Don't count Ron Paul out yet

[demgrrrll]

8. That is the wild card. I bet Tampa will be jumping.

[gateley]

15. I hope LOTS of Paul supporters vote for him just to "make a statement". nt

[loggerboots]

9. Wisconsin will go red

Tommy Thompson former governor of Wisconsin,and very popular,will defeatTammy Baldwin,openly gay representative. Up until Obama
said he was in favor of same sex marriages. . Since the announcement Obama's lead in Wisconsin went from 9pts to toss up,and Thompson has almost an 18pt lead over Baldwin. if straight ticket voting towards repubs,Wisconsin is lost for Obama. The first time
Wisconsin has gone red since Reagan.
There is a possibility, that the recall against Walker,may have something to do with this. He is leading Barrett(D)by 4-6 pts.two weeks ago,it was about 1pt either way.

[loggerboots]

10. After the conventions

If Obama is seeing more solid blue.....he should win.

[geckosfeet]

11. ...then throw in a +5-10% election stealing factor for Rmoney in the contested states

But don't expect to see anything about that in MSM either...

[malaise]

12. K & effin' R n/t

[uponit7771]

14. rAssMussen is usually an outlier who doesn't do consistent polling

[UTUSN]

16. I won't breathe freely until the numbers are final. n/t

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Think about it this way: If you work your ass off and it's close, you've done your part to help us

win a close election. If you work your ass off and we mop the floor with them, then you've done your part to make this campaign no contest and humiliate the soon-to-be defunct social darwinism that is looking to dominate our country.

[MrModerate]

20. I have three words for ya:

"House and Senate."

Obama looks to be in an enviable position right now, and the more people get to know Romney, the less likely they are to vote for him. I think the 'Licans have already figured this out (months ago, in fact) and will put a lot of very targeted effort into gaining Congressional seats.

It's already bad enough with the rightwing House members voting in lockstep, and the idiotic filibuster rules making it impossible to get anything done in the Senate.

We must get a few more votes in the Senate (if for no other reason than to change the supermajority rule), and it would be very, very, very nice to 1) win the House or 2) even up the odds a bit, thus giving the few sane Republicans in the House political cover when they want to behave rationally and vote for a good idea, even if Democrats also support that idea.

Obama's coattails need to be made as long as possible, and a lot of really hard work faces any Dems engaged in local races.

[McCamy Taylor]

22. Dems need to fight GOP election fraud. In a fair vote, Obama wins.

Question is, will local GOP operatives do their usual dirty tricks for Romney, a man about whom many are lukewarm? They risk going to jail if they get caught doing e-fraud under the Obama administration. And Romney does not have the MSM in his pocket the way that Bush did to claim that voter suppression is just politics as usual.

[HiPointDem]

24. obama needs to win the popular vote regardless.

[WinstonSmith4740]

28. No doubt about that...

I think in a fair, open election, Obama wins going away. The problem lies in Karl Rove and his minions who are working right now to keep the people who would be voting for Obama AWAY from the voting booth. We have to work NOW to keep those laws from taking effect.

[Alcibiades]

30. 270towin has SC as a tossup

I cannot trust that.

The Pollster map seems more sensible.

[boxman15]

31. I agree, but the polls do show a very close race in South Carolina right now.

I'm pretty sure that'll change by November, but that's a huge problem for Romney. If he has to waste resources in states like South Carolina or Georgia to make sure they don't flip to Obama, that makes it easier for the Democrats to win in key states like Ohio, for example.

[Alcibiades]

35. One does have to wonder

I have family in SC, and one wonders whether folks whose pastors have railed against the apostasy of the Mormon church will turn out for Romney. Which is better for them, a supposed Muslim (a claim that even the most diehard must realize is simply a lie) or an actual, confirmed, unrepentant heretic?

Meanwhile, here in NC, Obama earned 100% of all the black women who voted in 2008. That's a huge advantage right off the ground, and he's only going to build on it.

[Garion_55]

32. all i know is

the right was all hot and bothered about the cbs poll that somehow had romney erasing a 20 point gender gap and a few days later the fox poll had obama crushing romney by 7 and most of the talk about polls stopped. the right wing blow hards moved on to wright.

same thing about gas prices, when was the last time fox did a breaking news announcing the current gas prices? bout two months ago right?

easy to see why.

http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp