Does Jaquin look like its being sucked into the East Coast of US

[lovuian]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-65.92,35.71,710

I thought it was suppose to go out to sea

[RKP5637]

1. I'm no expert in the least, but to my naive view it sure looks like it's

possibly headed that way, at least with a very close call.

[philosslayer]

2. It is offshore

Hundreds of miles offshore, and heading further out to sea.

[lovuian]

3. Whew! Thanks I didn't like

how that map looked ....I don't think Charleston could take anymore

you know it looks like a Northeaster system

[4139]

4. Path of least resistance to the east...

The winds west of Joaquin is what is steering it east out to sea

[Rosa Luxemburg]

5. Nice animation

[RKP5637]

7. I was reading about it on the site. It's updated by 3 super computers every

three hours, seems it's part of the national weather service. I bookmarked it for future use. It is, it's a really nice animation.

If you click on "earth" in the lower left hand corner and then "about" it gives you more information. Very interesting!!!

[RKP5637]

6. That's a really interesting link you gave. Thanks! I've bookmarked it for future use. n/t

[lovuian]

8. updated link

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-75.00,0.00,561

I don't see how it is being pushed out to sea I do see how its feeding the east coast with tons of moisture

Maybe the wind pressure is doing it

[kentauros]

14. Water vapor animations:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php


(The color bar at the bottom is the humidity level.)

Lots of vortices going on. I'd have to look at a proper weather map to locate the pressure zones. Usually though, the lows are at the center of the vortices, although highs spin too

[cwydro]

9. There is a large tropical system which is what has drowned us here in the Carolinas.

The hurricane helped push it toward us, but other than that, the two are not related.

[lovuian]

10. Thanks I get it

the Hurricane is going out but the large tropical system is being pushed by the hurricane

That just so sucks it makes this hurricane a major disaster even though its not hitting the coast

this looks really bad

[cwydro]

11. Very happy that hurricane took a right.

But yeah, this rain has been something else.

I'm in NC, but my sis is SC and they've been really suffering with this.

The funny thing is, we really needed the rain. We've been in a drought for some time.

Mother Nature has her ways.

[lovuian]

22. Latest update

[DavidDvorkin]

12. See the prediction from the National Hurricane Center:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

[lovuian]

13. Waves under the Hurricane just under 50 feet

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-67.80,30.37,1460

Look for lots of water East Coast

[NutmegYankee]

15. It's an illusion based on the map being at the 1000 hPa (millibar) level - close to sea level

If you click on the menu in the lower left and select a height of 500 hPa, you can better see the actual "steering winds".

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/25/

The 500 millibar chart represents the pressure level in about the middle of the atmosphere (about half the earth's atmospheric mass is below this level and half is above). The 500 millibar chart is one of the best charts for studying the following: vorticity advection, the trough/ridge pattern, and shortwaves. Vorticity is a spin to the air. A counterclockwise spin in the Northern Hemisphere is associated with rising air if PVA occurs. Positive vorticity (shown on 500 mb vorticity charts) is highest where the winds have to follow a curved counterclockwise path and areas with strong speed shear (wind speed increasing away from the center of a trough on the 500 millibar plane). The trough / ridge pattern gives forecasters the following information: which areas are experiencing cooler or warmer weather than normal (weather tends to be cooler under troughs and warmer under ridges). The trough / ridge pattern can be used to determine if the upper level winds are zonal (pretty much west to east flow, low pressures move quickly within a zonal flow) or meridional (atmospheric blocking and unusual cold and warm weather occur when the pattern is meridional). A short wave is a small amplitude trough embedding within the longwave troughs and ridges. On a 500-millibar chart they will show up as a region were the isotherms cross the height contours at a sharp enough angle to produce an upper level circulation.

[kentauros]

16. Well then, let's have the maps!

http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/barotrop.shtml#mb500

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_man.php?plot=500&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=500&inv=0&t=ini

[Warpy]

17. Naw, steering currents are keeping it far offshore

It's so far out there it's even going to miss Newfoundland.

The east coast dodged a bullet. This was a very powerful, dangerous storm. Now only shippers and fisherman have to keep an eye on it.

[lovuian]

20. I don't think so it looks like Joaquin has turned in this latest footage to east coast

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&zoom=2&info=ir&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=1400&height=1000&type=Animation&numframes=20

They are calling it a "SuperStorm"

[Warpy]

21. Feeder bands are moving onshore

(just what they need, more rain), but the storm center is still moving NNE.

[malaise]

18. It's down to Cat2 now and is already affecting Bermuda

This one won't hit the mainland

[lovuian]

19. This just came up in the News Schumer ticked

http://www.wbng.com/news/state/Schumer-Underfunding-of-hurricane-tracking-systems-330573621.html

Sen. Chuck Schumer says the underfunding of hurricane tracking systems may have led to miscalls on Hurricane Joaquin's track along the east coast.

The senator held an event Sunday afternoon in New York City.


I would be heads up NY

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

23. If there were any miscalls, they erred on the side of caution

People were warned there was a chance this could hit the Mid Atlantic.

The problem was, this storm stalled for several days this weekend before moving up and out to the East. The calls that it might hit the Eastern seaboard were made last Wednesday, but were generally correct by Friday.

[lovuian]

24. Update on Joaquin

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html

[lovuian]

25. S.C. Gov.: Flooding At 1,000-Year Level; At Least 5 Dead

http://kosu.org/post/joaquin-churning-toward-bermuda-causes-massive-floods-us#stream/0

S.C. Gov.: Flooding At 1,000-Year Level; At Least 5 Dead

it went from 100 year old flood to 250 year 0ld flood to now 1000 year old flood
in the news

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley says her state is experiencing a 1,000-year flood as torrential rains triggered in part by Hurricane Joaquin have inundated the state and much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Despite staying well offshore, Joaquin has wreaked havoc on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. President Obama on Saturday declared a state of emergency in worst-hit South Carolina.

It is the sort of weather event expected only once in 1,000 years, Haley told an afternoon news conference in the capital, Columbia. She called it "historic rainfall." The Congaree River, which flows south of Columbia, was at its highest level since 1936, she said.

"This is not an incident that we've dealt with before," Haley said.

[KittyWampus]

26. No, but it's cyclonic winds are causing water to get pushed onto shores

from the northeasternly direction.

[lovuian]

27. Joaquin is moving North

update
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

The two storms looks like they maybe joining and Joaquin looks like its going straight up the "Eastern Coast"

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

28. The Eastern Coast of the Azores? n/m

[lovuian]

29. Dams Breached in South Carolina and the rain totals Whoah

http://www.weather.com/safety/floods/news/south-carolina-flooding-columbia-charleston-myrtlebeach

Residents near one Columbia, South Carolina, lake were told to flee Monday afternoon, as a dam was about to break, potentially putting thousands in the path of millions of gallons of water.

South Carolina Rain Totals



Those new evacuation orders were issued after concern that the Overcreek dam at Forest Acres could breach. Minutes later, the dam broke, becoming the 18th dam to breach or fail in the Palmetto State since Saturday.

“I believe that things will get worse before they get better,” Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin said Monday. “Eventually the floods will abate, but then we have to access the damage, and I anticipate that damage will probably be in the billions of dollars, and we’re going to have to work to rebuild. Some peoples’ lives as they know them will never be the same.”

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

30. But that's not from Joaquin

Your implication through this entire thread is that NOAA didn't know where Joaquin was going, that the two systems have combined, that Joaquin was going to hit New York and New England.....etc. Only a small part of Joaquin's edge grazed the East Coast on Saturday and Sunday. Did it feed these floods? Sure. But that was predicted....the dismissal of a direct hit was also correct.

Joaquin has forced this system off Florida and over South Carolina to stall. It's like lining planes up on a runway. One can't move until the one ahead of it has taxied and taken off. So has it caused problems? Yes. But it was never going to hit the mid-Atlantic or the North East.

It is amazing that as late as last night you were still insisting Joaquin was heading "North" when it was clearly far out to sea and actually steering towards Europe now.

If you're new to this whole weather tracking thing, I apologize for the lecture, but you have been ginning up concern for areas that didn't need it instead of focusing on SC's problems. I'm distressed by the lack of funding as well, but I don't think NOAA's calls in this case were wrong. They erred on the side of caution, but after Saturday, there was clearly no reason for the rest of the East Coast to be scared of a direct hit from Joaquin. And the European models said that as far back as last Wednesday.