Interesting 538 analysis: "Will The New Hampshire Union Leader’s Endorsement Help Chris Christie?"

[Attorney in Texas]

link; excerpt:

Chris Christie ... added the New Hampshire Union Leader’s endorsement. The backing of the state’s biggest paper has historically been a leading indicator of how New Hampshire Republicans are likely to vote. Whether that will prove true for Christie is an open question.

Up until the paper backed Newt Gingrich four years ago, every candidate the Union Leader endorsed since 1980 gained in the polls afterward. ... On average, the Union Leader’s preferred candidate outperformed their polls by 8 percentage points ... Of course, 8 percentage points isn’t exactly winning the lottery. Christie currently has about 5 percent in New Hampshire polls. An extra 8 percentage points would put him at 13 percent. That probably won’t be enough to win the primary. Christie would need to pick up closer to the 21 percentage points that John McCain did in the 2008 campaign to win. And even if Christie did that, 26 percent would still be less than the percentage that every single New Hampshire primary winner received since 1972.

Also, the Union Leader’s endorsement didn’t foretell a Gingrich surge. After he was endorsed by the paper, Gingrich lost 10 percentage points.

I personally don't think Christie has a snowball's chance in hell (or -- as I like to say -- a neurosurgeon's chance in politics) of winning the nomination, but anything to disrupt the Rubio and Cruz campaigns is fine by me.