Nate Silver: One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump

[brooklynite]

But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.

I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
-The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.
-Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.
-Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.
-An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/

[Eleanors38]

1. Trump has a lock on the nomination...

When FL GOPers most likely to vote were recently polled his lead over Cruz, Rubio & Bush COMBINED was in the double digits; more importantly, his "favorable" ratings are rising. Democrats should plan accordingly.

For FL haters: Obama carried the state twice.

[Johonny]

2. But we all knew already that no one within the party likes Cruz as a person.

He's embarrassed what's left of the power base with stupid government shutdowns and power plays in the senate. He's made mostly enemies since getting elected, and few friends.