Did the republican debate move the numbers at all in NH?

[Renew Deal]

I think Trumps voters are locked in and as long as the rest of the field is divided, he is likely to stay on top. But after that, things get interesting. Will Kasich's positive message and likability break through? Will Rubio be punished for being what his opponents say? And will the BFEE break through?

I think Trump stays 1.

1. Trump
2. Kasich
3. Rubio
4. Bush
5. Cruz
6. Christie
7. Carson
8. Fiorina
9. Gilmore

[DesertFlower]

1. kasich is the most sane one.

cruz scares me more than trump does.

[SDjack]

7. Kasich is not a compassionate conservative. Although, he played one

during tonight's debate.

[lob1]

2. I think Rubio killed himself.

[saltpoint]

3. Republican voters should reward Jim Gilmore

over the entire field. They won't. But it would be fun.

Rubio got kicked around pretty good tonight, some by Christie but mostly by himself. I swear to god Rubio seems like he's 7 years old.

[yeoman6987]

23. To think Cruz is the same age is kinda funny

Cruz looks 60 and Rubio looks 30.

[saltpoint]

24. Yep. They look odd together. And what's

fun for us is they hate each other's guts.

[yeoman6987]

25. Very true.

[noretreatnosurrender]

4. Self Inflicted Wound for Rubio

After Rubio shot himself in the foot over and over at tonight's debate I'm sure his numbers will change. lol

[OhZone]

5. Yeah, predictwise has Rubio going down already! haha

http://predictwise.com/

[saltpoint]

6. Agree that Trump probably holds onto

top spot. What if voters were impressed with Christie's bludgeoning of Rubio and Christie finishes second, Kasich third, then Cruz, then Bush:

Trump
Christie
Kasich
Cruz
Bush

then

Carson
Fiorina
Gilmore

Jeb at either fourth or fifth probably knocks him out of the race. He's already out of it although apparently no one has told him. Most of us have known for months. Maybe he places ahead of Ted, but again, fourth or fifth just ain't gonna cut it.

If Rubio places third or lower (which is fine with me), his path to the podium in Cleveland becomes steeper.

So far as I know Chris Christie has no field operations anywhere else, or none to speak of at least, so even if he does well in NH he's still running on fumes.

Ditto Kasich. He needs to win or place second. If neither of those things happens, he's on the first flight back to Ohio.

[KentuckyWoman]

14. Jeb looked like he just wanted to go home.

I had the sound off and the visual in the background. John Ellis looked pitiful.
Cruz looked like he always does...... punchable.
Rubio looked like he was at the grownups table at Thanksgiving for the first time.


Their field is just so heinous it's kind of hard to do anything good with it but for what they have to work with, not a bad debate.

[saltpoint]

17. Excellent summary. You were wise to keep

the sound off. What those fools were actually saying would only have aggravated you.

"Their field is just so heinous..." That is right-on and righteous.

[StevieM]

29. I actually think that Rand Paul, even out of the race, will finish ahead of Jim Gilmore.

You can see my full list below, predicting how the candidates will finish. It is post #27.

[saltpoint]

31. It could happen just that way.

I'd love to read some commentary somewhere or other on whether Rubio, for example, is still in the race because he has big-money donors where Paul didn't have any, or as many.

[B Calm]

8. I smell brokered convention.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Mitt will step in

Romney's in the mix, believe it.

[white_wolf]

26. WHY?!

Seriously, why would nominate him? Didn't Republicans hate him last time? I got the sense that they elected him because it was "his time," but no one seemed enthusiastic and that was up against Obama who they hate with a passion. Even if he gets the nomination, does he really think he'll fare better against Clinton or Sanders?

[beltanefauve]

30. Because the Establishment

wants an Establishment candidate. Jeb! was supposed to be their guy, but it's not happening.

[hibbing]

9. Can rubio survive?

Who will the media push? By the way Barack Obama knows exactly what he's doing.


Peace

[saltpoint]

10. "By the way Barack Obama

knows exactly what he's doing." : )


I'm starting to like Jim Gilmore's chances. Pretty soon he may be the only one still standing.

[Dawson Leery]

11. A brokered convention is possible now.

[saltpoint]

12. Agree. And may it be marked by

some of the most virulent temper-tantrums ever witnessed in U.S. politics.

It could mean a groundswell of support for Mitt Romney. I hope he is summoned to the convention floor with just this notion in mind only to be soundly rejected by the delegates and sent back home on Rafalca.

Convention delegates then turn to Dan Quayle.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Romney's in the mix, fo sho

[saltpoint]

18. Romney and his goons roll into Cleveland, rough-gather

the remaining candidate hopefuls, hogtie them to the top of automobiles, and drive off into the foggy night.

Mitt of course stays behind to gussy up for what he hopes will be an acceptance speech.

[alcibiades_mystery]

19. I'd give decent odds for him ending up the nominee

He'd win in a walk against the remaining Dem candidates and everyone knows it.

[saltpoint]

20. Possibly. Although he's still the same old

'Corporations are people, too, my friend' Mitt we've come to distrust and loath.

I think there's a good chance that some party powerbroker types would promote him, but I'm not sure the delegate mix in Cleveland will swallow it. I think crazy delegates are going to demand a crazy ticket.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. He got 60 million votes

Virginia would be gone.

He'd just have to turn Florida or Ohio.

He'd turn a few blue states, too, I'd guess. Maybe Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Keep your eye on the Romney machine, especially if Trump isn't knocked down soon.

[saltpoint]

22. After the poison pipes in Flint, I'm not seeing

a big Republican year in Michigan. Ohio is always a mess, although the Portman / Strickland Senate race is bringing much-needed focus to Ohio this time round. If Kasich does not place first or second in NH, he's simply Ohio's governor. Obviously if he wins NH or places a perilously close second, he could alter the Ohio outcome.

Well, we'll find out by and by. It's been a wild cycle so far and the forecast is for more wildness yet.

[craigmatic]

13. Rubio has to drop now

[StevieM]

27. Christie is no longer part of the establishment lane, but he really destroyed Rubio tonight.

Last edited Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

Christie collapsed after he castigated that young girl, asking her if she wanted him to get a mop. And I think he knows it, so he decided to kamikaze Rubio, so that he would lose to Bush and Kasich.

Here is the order that I am predicting:

1. Trump
2. Bush
3. Kasich
4. Cruz
5. Rubio
6. Christie
7. Fiorina
8. Carson
9. Paul
10. Gilmore

I actually think that Rand Paul, out of the race, will get more votes than Gilmore.

And I still cannot rule out the possibility that Jeb Bush will ultimately win the nomination.

I think that Rubio is finished after tonight.

[840high]

28. Time to narrow down to about 4.

[IDemo]

32. OK, I'll give it a guess:

1. Trump
2. Cruz
3. Christie
4. Rubio
5. Bush
6. Kasich
7. Carson
8. Fiorina
9. Gilmore

And make no mistake, Jeb! still feels confident that he can win this, because the top tier will crumple (Cruz/Trump - get it?), Rubio exposed himself as an empty suit, and he still has a pile of cash to coast on for the next several months.

[StevieM]

33. A few thoughts on your list:

Don't you think Rand Paul, even out of the race, will get more votes than Jim Gilmore?

I think Christie did a lot of damage to Rubio but that doesn't mean that he will be the one to benefit from it. The truth is, although the media hasn't acknowledged it, Christie isn't really part of the establishment lane battle anymore. For the last week or two Christie has been down to 4-6 percent in the polls. He really damaged himself during the New Jersey snowstorm, first when he resisted going back, and especially when he castigated that young girl, asking if he should get a mop.

I still think Bush could pull off a second place showing in New Hampshire. He has firmly established himself as the anti-Trump candidate, having been the only one to actually take the fight to him on a regular basis. Some anti-Tump voters may appreciate that when they enter the polls on the day of the Primary.