Are Trump’s Poll Numbers Collapsing?

[Capt. Obvious]

Yes, of course, we all know general election polls nearly a half-year from Election Day are not very accurate and shouldn't matter a great deal to knowledgeable political people. But human nature and the power of hype being what they are, Donald Trump's ascent to a position even with, and even ahead of, Hillary Clinton in general election trial heats in April and May had a big impact on people in both parties.

Among Republicans, signs that Trump was rapidly consolidating a grip on Republican voters had a lot to do with GOP elected officials and other opinion-leaders, well, following their supposed followers. Trump's numbers all but killed off the #NeverTrump movement — at least until the Gonazalo Curiel saga of the last week. And among Democrats, quiet panic spread as liberals asked themselves Can it really happen here? and elites impatiently pushed Bernie Sanders to shut down his challenge to Hillary Clinton so the party could gird its loins to battle Trump.

Even as political folk over-reacted to Trump's polling surge, wiser heads counseled that it could be an anomaly based on the combination of a post-nomination-clinching "bounce" for Trump and the climax of the Clinton-Sanders struggle. Once Clinton became the putative rather than the presumptive nominee, went the cautionary note, she, too would get a "bounce" as Sanders Democrats came home, and then we'd have a better idea of where the two candidates stood going into the conventions.

....

Now some new general election polls are coming out, and sure enough, Clinton's showing some momentum. A new Reuters/Ipsos survey has her up by eight points; IDB/TIPP has her up five. Even Rasmussen — which had Trump leading by five points in mid-May — now has Clinton leading by four. And all these results are occurring before it sinks in that Clinton has now locked up her nomination and made history. What's more, on Thursday afternoon Fox News came out with a survey showing a six-point swing from a three-point Trump lead in May to a three-point HRC lead now.

....

NYMag

[apcalc]

1. We can hope.

[patricia92243]

2. I don't want him to get bad numbers until he clinches the nomination.

I'm afraid he will quit and the Repubs would put in a real candidate that would give us a run for our money.

[skip fox]

5. I don't think so.

If Trump doesn't get it there will be literal or figurative riots where his supporters attack the Republican Party and the Republican Party attacks back.

What a lovely outcome. They'll see what they get when they go to the nutty wings of their party, Hillary will have a cakewalk, the Senate and maybe the House will be Democratic, and the public will get a wonderful display of vocal explosions, cranial implosions, mental breakdowns on full display, &c.

What's not to like?

[skip fox]

3. Always nice to be confirmed by Real Clear Politics

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

This is the average of the major polls, and the one you always hear mentioned in the media. (On Fox, only when the polls are trending their way, or when they can minimize them or twist them.)

On the graph (which goes up to yesterday) you can see the rather sharp decline for Trump and bump for Hillary.

[runaway hero]

4. yes

and its all self inflicted