Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon just called for Scottish Second Independence Referendum

[joshcryer]

CNN just now.

[ananda]

1. This will be another vote for Scottish independence.

If that were to pass, then I guess Scotland itself could
negotiate separately with the EU.

That would be interesting.

[joshcryer]

2. "We said clearly we are a modern, open, inclusive country... I will make sure this is realized."

Paraphrased.

[joshcryer]

3. "Independence referendum now highly likely"

When asked about "other options"

[joshcryer]

4. "In the circumstances the Scottish Parliament would decide without the UK for a referendum."

Paraphrased. Wow, they're not going to get the UK's blessing for an independence referendum. This is unprecedented.

[joshcryer]

5. "Given how Scotland voted ..."

[Recursion]

6. At this point I'm wondering if Wales will stay (nt)

[joshcryer]

7. My mind is blown.

The UK effectively ended its Kingdom...

[BlueMTexpat]

8. Wales actually voted

for the Brexit.

[Ken Burch]

13. Narrowly(it was less than 52% for Leave there)but there's this:

Remember the song "Bells of Rhymney"? The Byrds had a big hit with it.

It was a Pete Seeger setting of part of an epic poem by the Welsh poet Idris Davies:

Oh what will you give me, say the sad bells of Rhymney
Is there hope for the future, say the brown bells of Merthyr
Who made the mine owner, say the black bells of Rhondda
And who robbed the miner, say the grim bells of Blaina

They will plunder willy-nilly, say the bells of Caerphilly
They have fangs, they have teeth, shout the loud bells of Neath
Even God is uneasy, say the moist bells of Swansea
And what will you give me, say the sad bells of Rhymney

Throw the vandals in court, say the bells of Newport
All will be well if, if, if, if, if, say the green bells of Cardiff
Why so worried, sisters, why, sang the silver bells of Wye
Oh what will you give me, say the sad bells of Rhymney

(the bells are the town bells in the old mining towns of Wales, and in the poem the bells are reacting...echoing the feelings of the towns where they toll...about the crushing of the General Strike of 1926).

With the exception of Cardiff, every area mentioned by name in that poem-lyric voted Leave.

[TubbersUK]

9. When questioned about the possibility of a closed border

between Scotland and England she ruled it neither in or out.

What a friggin' mess.

[Recursion]

10. Worse yet: they'd be legally required to have a hard border. Really really worse...

... so would Ireland and Northern Ireland. I don't want to think about going back to that.

[msanthrope]

17. Don't take that reunification off the table yet. Nt

[TubbersUK]

20. It's awful

Superimposing a closed border given the long history of free movement is almost unimaginable.

For instance, I have a Scottish mother and an English father.

I and two of my siblings were born in England. My family then moved to Scotland when I was a toddler and my youngest sibling was born. Subsequently, we were all then raised and educated in Scotland. On graduating I moved back to England and now have a family here, my partner is English. My widowed Father & my surviving siblings still live in Scotland with their families.

I have a slew of cousins who have similar histories, it's pretty commonplace as you might imagine.

Sort that one out without upset.

[Denzil_DC]

11. Not quite.

though that's no doubt how it'll be spun in shorthand by some of the media.

She said it was on the table because there had been a material change in the circumstances in which the last Scottish referendum was held (the question of whether Scotland would be able to join the EU in its own right was a major one at the time, and was one of the factors that swayed a number of voters, and the SNP's manifesto specifically set out that a circumstance like this might provide a trigger), and she would be making preparations for consulting the Scottish Parliament about it. She said that nothing is going to happen in a hurry and there are lots of consultations and discussions that need to take place, both within the Scottish Goverment and with the civil service in Whitehall etc.

Earlier in the speech, she said she would be holding direct talks with representatives of all the EU member countries. She's also been in touch with the new London mayor Sadiq Khan (whose constituency also voted Remain), and there will be co-operation between them to figure out what happens next. That's an interesting axis.

[joshcryer]

12. Yeah, they have plenty of time for this.

But it's likely it happens since there's nothing that the UK or the EU can offer here that works without Scotland independence.

[Denzil_DC]

14. They're going to have their hands full anyway.

There are so many areas of governance that are devolved to Holyrood, others that are reserved to Westminster, sometimes quite arbitrarily, and then there's the European considerations of legislation and funding and governance and diplomacy. That's a hell of a lot to unravel and reconfigure in quite a short timescale while Westminster and Whitehall are in chaos.

One thing they'll certainly do is conduct a whole lot of very serious private polling about the issue. There's no way Sturgeon will go for this unless she's absolutely sure they'll win. She's not stupid.

[joshcryer]

15. I agree with that, but I think she's going by the vote.

And rightly so. Brexit was actually part of the first Scotland Independence Vote. The vote to stay in the UK was just as much a vote to stay in the EU. And that is being very carefully assessed.

I think it will come up again but I don't think it will be as close as before, given how unified Scotland as a whole was against Leave (or for Remain, however you want to say it).

[Denzil_DC]

16. It was a factor.

For some, it may have been a decisive factor. But apparently not enough to ensure a very high turnout in yesterday's referendum, which is what gives me pause, and she may feel the same. She's canny, not a hothead. Not reckless like Cameron, for instance!

[joshcryer]

19. I'll grant you that, 100%.

And I will temper my argument, but I think Scotlanders are really upset by this. Think about it, your entire country, if you will, voted to stay, and yet you're being forced to go.

[Denzil_DC]

21. In case it wasn't clear, I live in Scotland,

and voted Yes in the last referendum.

Beyond some social media, I have no clear idea how people are reacting yet. We're not unaccustomed to having our democratic wishes overruled by another part of the UK! The question is whether this will be the last straw for enough people, or whether the shock and uncertainty lead to paralysis. we'll have to wait for a succession of polls before we have any idea about that.

There are also tribal elements at play. A not insignificant proportion of people in Scotland are diehard Unionists. Some have a gut hatred/fear of the SNP, which will inevitably be a major player in any future Yes campaign as it was before. Some will be cheering this result. We have to live with and deal with them. And, I guess, acknowledge that they're entitled to some say in what happens, may need persuading or just not be persuadable, awkward and annoying though it may be.

[joshcryer]

22. Don't you think it will be a strong enough argument for a new referendum, at least?

Also, I didn't know you lived there, so apologies, but that explains your passion here. Again, I didn't mean to say you guys were doing it, but I do believe it's likely that it happens, if only for Scotland to get some finality since the result was just so far opposite of the rest of the UK. Some bit of closure.

Even if it fails a second time.

[Denzil_DC]

23. No apologies needed!

How could you know unless I put it in my profile and you bothered to look?

I don't know about passion. I'm more wired than anything else at the moment.

I think it's a strong argument, yes. Obviously, a clear and unarguable majority have to agree. As well as on a whole host of other issues that aren't going to be simple to frame and figure out. We got our fingers burnt last time, not least on which currency we'd use, which isn't going to go away as an issue.

We just can't afford to lose another referendum. It would ensure Scotland was never independent, and might even see the end of the SNP, having stirred up a whole lot of ugly sentiment we still haven't recovered from after the last one.

We also need to see how the EU shapes up. There's talk of positive reforms that might answer quite a few of the criticisms, partly spurred by this shock, and those won't happen overnight, but it might not end up being a body we want to be part of if things go badly.

I've really appreciated this chat, BTW, it kinda helps at the moment. Sorry if I've come across as a bit combative at any point, but you know ...

[TubbersUK]

24. I've seen some initial reactions via the TV coverage

Some English Brexit supporters who are pretty cross with Nicola Sturgeon for peeing on their celebratory bonfire - they feel that the Scots shouldn't be looking to have a second bite of the cherry.

Some Scots who factored in continuing EU membership when voting NO to independence - they are pretty cross too & hinted at changing their minds on the independence question.

Early days though, it's going to be interesting.

[Denzil_DC]

25. Those English Brexit supporters will generally bitterly hate the SNP anyway.

You think they're rough on immigrants? Ha!

The issue of EU membership took up a lot of campaigning time during the Scottish referendum. The Indyref2 trigger of a material change of circumstances was a clear manifesto commitment at the UK and Scottish parliamentary elections. So they can just suck it up.

We don't need their permission or approval. It's our decision, not theirs. If they don't like democracy, they should go live somewhere where people don't practice it.

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Oh Yes

Let's give everything a do-over until we get the outcome we like.

Does this mean we get two chances to reject Lame-Brain Trump?

[Cryptoad]

26. Love them Scots,,,,,,