Trump's bounce is gone

[Charles Bukowski]

Sec Clinton retakes the lead on RCP, albeit by a modest 0.4 points:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

RCP had Durrr Fuhrer up 1.1 points just a few days ago. I predict Clinton will be up by an average of 3-4 points by this time next week.

[dawg]

1. Dead cat bounce.

He could still win, though. This country is messed-up in the head.

No way that clown would be polling above 35% were that not the case.

[Charles Bukowski]

2. I agree he could win

and it boggles my mind that so many people are willing to vote for this farcical man simply because he has an (R) next to his name, but let's enjoy the fact that his convention bounce was historically mediocre and appears to be gone.

[book_worm]

3. The truth is he really never did have a bounce.

[LW1977]

4. 538 keeps on going in the wrong direction.

Where are they getting their current information from?

[backscatter712]

5. 538's model is screwy at the moment.

The nowcast shows Hillary winning by a hair (yesterday, it was Trump winning), and the polls-only forecast shows Trump winning.

Considering that the bounce-effects of the DNC haven't made it into the poll numbers, I'd say that 538's current predictions should be taken with a bucket of salt.

[Rstrstx]

6. I suspect it's something built into his model

I think his model assumes a convention bounce will occur even before polls are released, last week he had Trump surging before any polls had come out. I would expect a continued move towards Clinton over the next week

[backscatter712]

7. Now it's starting to turn around.

When I checked this morning, Clinton was winning in all three versions.