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davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:47 PM Nov 2016

An electoral tie is not out of the realm of possibility

Not saying this will happen. But just something to think about...

Looking at the latest polling data, this scenario is not totally implausible. If Trump wins the Romney states plus FL, OH, IA, NV, and NH. That will give both candidates 269 electoral votes. As of right now, the RCP averages have Trump in the lead in each of those states except for NH, which has Clinton up 4.7.






If this happens, the election goes to the House of Representatives. Each state delegation has 1 vote. Whoever gets 26 votes becomes President.
The Vice President is elected in the Senate. Whoever gets 51, becomes Vice President.

It's not unprecedented. This has happened before, twice. 1800 and 1824. It's fully Constitutional.

And just to note, that only the top 3 in the electoral college are eligible. So if this happens the House can't just stick Paul Ryan in there or whoever else they want. They got to pick from the top 3 in the electoral college tally. So unless Evan McMullin pulls an upset in Utah, the House will ONLY be able to choose between Clinton and Trump.

Who would win if this happens? The GOP is likely to control at least 27 state delegations. So unless the Democrats were able to broker a deal and peel off 3 delegations, Trump would win.

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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An electoral tie is not out of the realm of possibility (Original Post) davidn3600 Nov 2016 OP
Hillary vadermike Nov 2016 #1
You are making one major assumption... PoliticAverse Nov 2016 #2
Yes, it is gratuitous Nov 2016 #3
Oh, man. That'd almost be worth the entertainment value. Nuclear Unicorn Nov 2016 #4
Here's a better Map: misterhighwasted Nov 2016 #5
Funny stuff, no way Trump wins Florida, North Carolina or Nevada. sarcasmo Nov 2016 #6
Well, technically no. But neither is the Twins winning the next 5 World Series whatthehey Nov 2016 #7
Stuff happens - The Twins finished in 6th place in '86, and won the world series in '87 April Lee Nov 2016 #9
I think NH is a real long shot for Trump. Warren DeMontague Nov 2016 #8

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
1. Hillary
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:55 PM
Nov 2016

Is ahead in FL most polls today put her ahead and NV early vote she is winning big time I don't see a tie RCP is very right tilted

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
2. You are making one major assumption...
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 03:55 PM
Nov 2016

That is that all electors will vote for who they are pledged to. If one elector defected to say Ryan, he'd then
count in the "top 3".

whatthehey

(3,660 posts)
7. Well, technically no. But neither is the Twins winning the next 5 World Series
Wed Nov 2, 2016, 04:34 PM
Nov 2016

The likelihoods are equally worth planning for or speculating about.

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