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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNorth Eastern DUers - are you ready for the bad weather
They say hurricane winds and rain - too warm for snow - stay safe
For the record there have been over 90 tornadoes this month when high 30s has been the norm in recent years. They used to be rare in January (not an alternative fact).
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/03/09/severe_tornado_outbreaks_are_increasing_over_time.html
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Many tornadoes appear on their own, but the majority are associated with severe storms that spawn multiple tornadoes. These outbreaks can span many hours and cover a lot of territory, and are obviously extremely dangerous. They kill more than 100 people per year on average and cause billions of dollars in damage.
The study looked at tornadoes from 1954 to 2014, applying some statistical analysis to the number and strength of each. What they found is interesting, and a little bit non-intuitive, and also may have implications for the effects of climate change.
First off, they found that the total number of outbreaks per year is fairly steady across the date range, at roughly 20 per year (with lots of fluctuations year to year). The total number of individual tornadoes is also steady, roughly 500 per year (again, with lots of variation).
But thats not the whole story. The researchers looked at the outbreaks themselves, and found that the number of tornadoes that occur in outbreaks is increasing. Its going up by about 0.66 percent per year, from about 10 per outbreak in the 1950s to 15 today. That rise is statistically significant (that is, very unlikely to be from random chance).
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)malaise
(269,219 posts)TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)So far so good -
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)I only wish this were snow not rain.
After a three-day Caucasian Summer, we're going to get a big storm. Stay safe, everyone.
malaise
(269,219 posts)H2O Man
(73,637 posts)to do any of the fun and risky things I did in past centuries!
malaise
(269,219 posts)We all are - sometimes I wonder how we survived
NutmegYankee
(16,201 posts)There just are not going to be thunderstorms capable of spawning them. This is just a massive low pressure system, a Nor'Easter, that is common this time of year. Usually we have cold weather in place for a massive snow event, but not this time. As for power outages, they are rare this time of year - the trees without leaves can take a pounding and not fall down.
malaise
(269,219 posts)Get ready
NutmegYankee
(16,201 posts)If the temps are in the 20's, the snow tends to be dry and doesn't stick to anything. It goes above the 10-1 ratio for inches of snow to inch of rain and is a delight to remove (light and fluffy). Closer to freezing it can stick to stuff, but the wind also knocks it off of the branches, limiting the loads.
Now a heavy wet snow without wind can take some branches down, but usually that only happens if they have leaves. Bare trees normally have already been pruned by winters past and have few weak branches.
If I lose power I do have my equipment - Generator and transfer switch, gas stove, kerosene heat backup, many forms of lighting, etc. I suspect though that all I'll get is some disturbance in my sleep from the wind noise.
malaise
(269,219 posts)You know your weather
NutmegYankee
(16,201 posts)2013 dropped 30 inches of snow : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2013_nor'easter
2015 dropped 24 inches of snow : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2015_North_American_blizzard
2011 dropped 21 inches of snow in one of the many blizzards that hit that winter. Other blizzards dropped 18 and 15 inches. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2010_North_American_blizzard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_8%E2%80%9313,_2011_North_American_blizzard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_25%E2%80%9327,_2011_North_American_blizzard
When the 4th blizzard hit in February I went out to shovel to get to work, found my driveway plugged by a 5 foot high plow drift, and just melted down. Threw my shovel into the driveway so hard I cracked it and went inside to call work and inform them I was taking the day off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_31_%E2%80%93_February_2,_2011_North_American_blizzard